• Dave Pemberton, The Oakland Press
• Chris Iott, MLive.com/ Booth Newspapers
• Vince Ellis, Detroit Free Press
• Jamie Samuelsen, Detroit Free Press
• Keith Langlois, True Blue Pistons
• Eli Zaret, Detroit Pistons
• Patrick Hayes, Full-Court Press
• Justin Rogers, Full-Court Press
• Natalie Sitto, Need4Sheed
• Brian Packey, Detroit Bad Boys
• Kevin Sawyer, Detroit Bad Boys
• Mike Payne, Detroit Bad Boys
• Jesse Murphy, Pistons Nation
• Jon Young, Flagrant2
• Dan Feldman, PistonPowered

I  want to thank everyone listed above for participating. But I don’t want to hear just from them. Please post your answers to the question in the comments.  We can make this an even larger collection of thoughts about the Pistons.

Here’s today’s question:

If you were Joe Dumars, would you be on a one-year plan, two-year plan, three-year plan, etc.? What does your answer mean for this offseason?

Dave Pemberton, The Oakland Press

My top priority this offseason would be to bolster the Pistons frontcourt and help get the team in position to compete for a playoff spot next season. Whether it be in the draft, free agency or a trade, the Pistons have to improve up front. It’s frightening to think how bad Detroit’s frontcourt would have been without Ben Wallace this season.

This all starts with the draft and depending on the pick is likely the best option. Free agency won’t bring anything more than a temporary solution. Signing someone like Brad Miller, Erick Dampier or Brendan Haywood would be an improvement, but not a long-term solution. Bringing back Wallace would be among my plans, but only with a deal similar to the one he had this season.
Re-signing Will Bynum would also be a priority this offseason. Bynum’s a young player that has shown he can provide a nice spark off the bench and fill in as the starting point guard if needed.

Adding young talent this offseason or during next season would be part of my long-term plan because I would be looking to compete for a championship two or three years down the road.

Tayshaun Prince will be an attractive option in trades because of his expiring contract, but I wouldn’t give him away. He’s shown he can still play and with the motivation of getting a new contract could be a nice piece for Detroit next season. I would actively shop other veterans, but make sure I get some value in return.

Chris Iott, MLive.com/ Booth Newspapers

Joe Dumars has to be on an "every-year plan." Championship teams are not built overnight or even an offseason. Dumars has his work cut out for him, but no matter what he does, the Pistons are not going to win the 2010-11 NBA title. The Pistons can make a leap forward and make the playoffs next season, but Dumars will have to make one really good to great move in free agency and via a trade in addition to getting it right when it comes to the draft. But even a perfect offseason will leave another year or two of work to do. This truly is a team in transition.

Vince Ellis, Detroit Free Press

I wouldn’t necessarily put a time frame on when the Pistons could return to challenging for a title. I would just treat this season as hitting rock bottom and work from there. If it takes one, two, three or however long, that’s how I would treat it. As for this off-season, without even making a move you are looking at a top-five pick, a high second-rounder and the midlevel exception. That offers the potential for three nice pieces (two of those slots should be big guys). And you assume Rip or Tay will be moved so who knows how many more new players will be around.  I will say this off-season will be huge for the future.

Jamie Samuelsen, Detroit Free Press

It’s impossible to define how long a plan can be. Dumars made it clear last off-season that he wasn’t content to allow for a long rebuild. So he got aggressive and signed Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva to awful contracts. And with the future of the franchise so unclear, I wonder how aggressive Dumars will be allowed to be. But I’m sure he’d love to unload some contracts, so there will be a lot of proposals and phone calls and offers. But in this economy, what team is going to want Rip Hamilton for three more years at 12.6 mil per year? Dumars has had a very good run as the Pistons GM. And I think he deserves the chance to fix this mess. But he did create the mess. And I don’t see many ways out. At least not in the short term.

Keith Langlois, Detroit Pistons

My answer would be that I won’t limit the possibilities for next season but I also won’t do anything that limits the possibilities beyond next season. I think he’d say his intent is to put the Pistons in the best position to win as many games as possible next season without damaging their future beyond that. Get better now, but avoid the quick fix. He’s more likely to trade veterans for younger talent than vice versa, but I don’t think he’d rule out anything that would improve the Pistons now without recklessly endangering their future. As for what will shape his off-season, I think where the May 18 lottery places them will be a big piece of the picture.

Eli Zaret, Detroit Pistons

I think it’ll be at least a 2- if not a 3-year plan. This offseason he’ll get a top 5 pick; will probably try to trade some of his assets that need a change of scenery, like Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince and use his midlevel exception wisely. Billups was a midlevel back in ‘02-’03 and that worked out pretty well.

Patrick Hayes, Full-Court Press

The Pistons aren’t far off. They need what most teams do – a star playmaker, regardless of position. You can’t win in the NBA right now without a guy who can get his own shot on any possession. If the Pistons luck out in the draft and end up with Wall or Turner, then sign a serviceable big for part of the midlevel or make a trade for one, they’ll be a middle of the pack playoff team in the East next year.

This rebuilding project is going to take as long as it takes for the Pistons to get a top two pick in the draft. If that happens this year, they’ll be back soon. If it doesn’t, next year they should be better with improved health, but not significantly enough to become a playoff threat.

Justin Rogers, Full-Court Press

The Pistons are at least two years away, but they can make significant strides this offseason. First and foremost the Pistons can start the turnaround process in the NBA draft.The team is likely to have a top-six-or-seven pick, hopefully top three. Second, Tayshaun Prince’s value is starting to peak again. He’s been fantastic on the last third of the season and he’s entering in the final year of his contract. Dumars should be able to get pretty good value in a trade. Finally, the MLE must be used wisely. Free agency is flooded with superstars, so Dumars should be able to find a bargain on the market. Obviously the goal is to find another player like Billups, a younger player who is hasn’t met their potential, but is willing to work hard. Clearly that’s easier said than done.

Natalie Sitto, Need4Sheed

Right now you want to get better every season. You don’t ever want to be on a two- or three-year plan. You focus around making your team the best you can every season. If it takes three years to make a championship push, so be it, but you need to go all out each year if you think you have the pieces that might work together.

As far as the offseason, Dumars needs size. Kwame Brown is gone, Ben Wallace might retire, and Chris Wilcox was like a ghost all season. That just leaves the undersized Jason Maxiell. If Austin Daye doesn’t go on a weightlifting, eating binge during the summer or gets blasted with whatever Bruce Banner did, the Pistons are in serious trouble.

Dumars also either needs to resign Will Bynum, who will get much more than his $825,000 salary next season, or find a point guard to take his place.

As for the current duo of Tayshaun and Rip, I’m sure he’ll take calls on both. Rip has a difficult contract to move, but Tayshaun’s 12 million will come off the books after the 2011 season, so the Pistons could get someone to make that deal.

Brian Packey, Detroit Bad Boys

Presumably, the Pistons are going to add 2-3 quality talents this off-season with the draft and the MLE. Hopefully, one of those will be the big-man, paint presence the Pistons so desperately need. Of course, whether this year was a result of all the injuries, or a true indication of the talent on this team will also affect Joe’s plan significantly.

Kevin Sawyer, Detroit Bad Boys

I’d look toward 2011-2012. Gordon and Villanueva will still be in their 20s, Stuckey will be hitting his stride, Austin Daye should be a major player and our lottery pick will have a year under his belt. I think Dumars needs to think about what he can do to move Hamilton. If that means moving an asset (like Jerebko, or even a draft pick), I think that he should consider doing so.

That said, economics being what they are, I wouldn’t hesitate to spend a few million toward a playoff push next year.   

Mike Payne, Detroit Bad Boys

Although I’d love to see Joe Dumars turn this ship around in one, two or even three years, I remain pessimistic about the future. The Pistons are locked into some serious contracts with under-performing players and a roster with no real identity. Sadly, my hope for this team’s future is entirely dependent on numbered balls in a lottery machine.

If Detroit winds up with any of the top three picks, the future will again be bright. I like DeMarcus Cousins and Evan Turner a lot more than I like John Wall, and would prefer either going forward. If we draft 4th or beyond, we’ll likely snag a role player and a longer wait for a turn-around.

Should we draft after the top three are taken, and Minnesota nets DeMarcus Cousins, we could find a trade partner in Wolves GM David Kahn. I suggested a trade scenario with Minny back in January, moving Tayshaun and Stuckey for Jefferson and Sessions. If Minnesota drafts Cousins they will most certainly move Jefferson, and Detroit should do whatever it can to bring him to Detroit. A starting line of Sessions, Gordon, Jerebko, Jefferson and Aldrich sounds quite attractive to me (well, any lineup with Jerebko is attractive, of course). Although some may question giving Sessions the keys at the point, he is precisely the kind of rare player that ends up making a GM look brilliant – just like Chauncey did of Dumars many years ago.

Jesse Murphy, Pistons Nation

That’s a tough question because of the salary commitments that Joe has made the past few seasons, see question #2.

Jon Young, Flagrant2

If I was Joe Dumars I would be on a one-year plan.

The Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva contracts look real bad right now, and the chance of shedding them is unlikely. If they could find any team willing to trade an above average big man for Rip I would jump on it.

The offseason depends a lot on the draft. If the Pistons get the #1 pick I think they would get John Wall at point guard and move Stuckey to the 2 guard. That would make trading Rip a lot easier. If they get a big man in the draft they could cut Chucky Atkins and go for a veteran point guard, not even necessary to start but to help run the team and manage the offense (Jason Williams for example).

The Pistons need to find a big man this offseason, preferably one who can shoot the ball maybe a Brad Miller type. The post has been very weak this year. I don’t see any point in resigning Kwame Brown, Chris Wilcox hasn’t done nearly as much as expected and Ben Wallace isn’t going to give you a scoring option. If the Pistons can draft a solid big man and keep Ben Wallace around for defense, the post situation will at the very least upgrade from this year. Tayshaun has been playing good lately and he might be the best option for acquiring a big man through trade, which if you’re Joe Dumars you have to be looking for.

Jonas is most likely going to improve next year, Charlie V has something to prove, and Ben Gordon can’t be any worse than this season. Through the draft, hopefully a trade, and development of the current roster the Pistons should improve in the next few seasons.

Dan Feldman, PistonPowered

I’d be on a one-year plan – almost completely.

I’d still draft the best player available rather than someone with limited upside who’s more apt to contribute right away. And I wouldn’t trade Rodney Stuckey, Jonas Jerebko or Austin Daye for someone much older.

But I’d be willing to trade Charlie Villanueva, Ben Gordon or Will Bynum for someone with less upside, but who would be better right now.

I’d also go for need over luxury in free agency – not what Joe Dumars did with Ben Gordon last summer.

Dumars isn’t stupid. He knows Gordon plays a similar role to Richard Hamilton. But I think he saw Gordon as the type of special player on whom you don’t pass. (Whether he’s right remains to be seen.)

I’d use the mid-level exception on the big man who can help Detroit most right now – regardless of his age. Luis Scola or Marcus Camby would be ideal, but they’re probably a stretch. Someone like Jermaine O’Neal, Udonis Haslem or Drew Gooden would likely make more sense.

The goal should be to get good right away, especially because it will increase the value of the expensive players the Pistons already have. Detroit’s high-priced players are good, but if they play for a loser too long, their value will plummet.

Look at Andre Iguodala, Elton Brandon and Samuel Dalembert in Philadelphia. They’re overpaid, but all three can still play. Their trade value is shot because the 76ers have been so miserable.

On the other hand, check out Rashard Lewis in Orlando or Kenyon Martin in Denver. They’re overpaid and productive, too. But their trade value is much higher than it should be because their teams are so good.

Winning masks a lot of issues, and the Pistons have plenty of those. Winning won’t make the problems completely disappear, but it will make them a lot easier to fix.

Previous

• How good would the Pistons have been this season if they weren’t hit with so many injuries?
• If you had to build a team around a current Piston besides Rodney Stuckey or Jonas Jerebko, whom would it be and why? (Please note if you’d rather build around this player than Stuckey or Jerebko.)
• Rodney Stuckey has been a key part of the Pistons’ long-term plans. Should that status change?

Like with the other questions, please post your answer in the comments. I’d like this roundtable to involve everyone reading, too.

As Tayshaun Prince has gotten healthy, he’s become a lot more aggressive. He’s seemed to realize with Chauncey Billups, Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace not here anymore, he doesn’t have to settle for being just a fourth option. The Pistons need him score more.

Well, he did in last night’s 110-107 win over the Rockets, pouring in a game-high 29 points.

This wasn’t like the Cleveland game Friday, when Prince scored 23 points because his jumper was falling. He made 7-of-7 shots at the rim last night. Those are season highs for makes and attempts from that location and way up from his season average (2-for-3).

That aggressiveness extended to the glass, where Prince grabbed 10 boards. But, and this might be nitpicking after such an awesome game, it didn’t extend to his defense.

Kevin Martin flew past him. Luis Scola posted him up. Those aren’t easy matchups, but Prince didn’t impress in either. He’s not the defender he used to be, and that’s probably just something we’ll just have to accept. But I’d like to see him slow one type of player.

Bulk up and stop the bigs or speed up and stop the wings. Doing neither isn’t enough.

Will Bynum

Will Bynum looked as comfortable as I’ve seen him since before his ankle injuries. He ran the offense with authority and was really the catalyst for Detroit posting a 110 offensive rating.

He knew when to pull up for jumpers, drive to the basket and distribute. He looked like a natural point, which hasn’t always been his forte.

And like before his injuries, his all-around game is really taking off. He finished with 12 points, 11 assists, four rebounds, two steals and just one turnover. And he played 42 minutes, proving he’s healthy again.

Jonas Jerebko is good – and improving

A few times this year, I’ve thought Jonas Jerebko has limited upside. He hustles and makes play because of that, but how effective will he be next year when opponents scout him? I wasn’t sure he had the skills to beat a defense geared to keep him off the glass and limit his scoring.

But his offensive repertoire is really expanding. He made 2-of-4 3-pointers last night, and he’s shown a propensity for quick drives to the basket before defenses set. He finished with 16 points.

He even took a couple hook shots last night. Both missed pretty badly. But I figure he’s made them in practice if he actually took them in a game.

I’m still not completely convinced Jerebko has as much upside as the typical rookie averaging nine points and six rebounds per game. But he’s removing my doubt.

Oh, yeah. He’s still making the hustle plays, too (eight rebounds, three blocks, one steal and a plus-8 last night).

Jason Maxiell becoming a force again

Last season and early this season, Jason Maxiell looked lethargic most of the time. But now that he’s become Detroit’s backup center, he really coming into his own.

I think part of the problem before was that he never had a set role. He’d play most games, but not all. Sometimes, Detroit would want his low post scoring. Other times, defense would be the emphasis.

Now, he’s playing hard all the time. For most of the season, I’d only describe Jonas Jerebko this way, but Maxiell just makes plays. He had 16 rebounds, a steal (probably should’ve gotten credit for a another) and was a team-best plus-11 last night.

I still think he settled for a mid-range jumper too often, though. He shot 2-of-7 from the field. That shot can be a nice weapon for him at times. But it should be secondary to his back-to-the-basket game in the low post.

Austin Daye stuck in foul trouble

Austin Daye had three fouls in eight minutes. It’s not that big of a deal now – when we’re just looking for anything positive from him. (And he provided that, making both his shots, including a nifty drive and pull-up floater).

But if he’s going to become a rotation player some day, how will he defend – without getting in foul trouble – with such a slight frame?

Ben Gordon’s slump that won’t end

Ben Gordon shot just 1-of-7, and it looked like he was slow on a couple defensive rotations.

I think we can just chalk this up as a lost season for him. Gordon has never had injury problems like this before, and his confidence looks shot. His numbers are so far below his previous career lows, which makes me believe something fluky is happening.

I’m concerned. But if he plays like this next season, I’ll really be worried.

Kwame Brown playing

With Ben Wallace out, Kwame Brown has played the last couple games. So, I guess whatever he was doing – or not doing – that him stuck at the end of the bench wasn’t serious enough to preclude him from playing under all circumstance.

Taunting refs is sport for this Wallace, too

An injured Ben Wallace in street clothes picked up a technical foul in the second quarter. When it was announced, it almost look like he was trying to hold in a laugh.

No tanking

I haven’t always been pleased with the Pistons’ effort this season, but they played hard in this game. A win over a quality Rockets team says this team still has some pride and isn’t just playing for a draft pick.

The Pistons ended regulation on 10-2 run and overcame missing three straight free throws in the final 11 seconds of overtime. They gritted out a win, and John Kuester described it as “healthy.”

That’s a word that hasn’t been used about the Pistons much this year, but I completely agree. I want Detroit to build a winning culture, no matter what it means for June 24.

Chauncey Billups shoots 43.9 percent, and yet he’s one of the most valuable offensive players in the league. That’s a fact. But I’ve had an unusual difficulty explaining it to people concisely. Yes, he has a great True Shooting Percentage, but that’s not quite the entire answer. Lots of players have great TS percentages, and Billups is pretty much the only one to do so while shooting such a low percentage from the floor.

I tend to say that "He shoots a lot of free throws and 3s," or, more precisely, "He makes a lot of free throws and 3s." But that, too, seems unwieldy. What we need is a single tool, a simple two-word explainer that shows how a player like Billups can be such a devastating weapon while missing nearly three-fifths of his field goal attempts.

It turns out we have it, and it’s something called "secondary percentage." First mooted, as far as I can tell, by my Basketball Prospectus successor and occasional ESPN.com contributor Kevin Pelton 15 months ago, the idea is to simply take the difference between a player’s TS% and his field goal percentage.

…

Baseball fans will recognize this instantly as a knockoff of Bill James’ "secondary average" formula, which in one number explains all the things a player does — besides hit for average — to contribute to his offensive value.

I’m sure you don’t want to hear it, but not only is Billups leading the league this year, his secondary percentage would be the best season all-time. In 2005-06, his secondary percentage was third-best all-time.

Anyway, I decided to see how this year’s Pistons’ stack up.

DaJuan Summers (11.2 percent) leads the team. It’s a small sample, but if you want to make a case he should get more playing time, this is probably your best weapon.

Among rotation players, Ben Gordon has the best secondary percentage (11.0). So, I guess that’s encouraging.

Unsurprisingly, Ben Wallace and Kwame Brown have negative secondary percentages.

To see every Pistons’ secondary percentage, see below the jump.

Player	TS%	FG%	S%
DaJuan Summers	40.6	29.4	11.2
Chucky Atkins	46.4	35.3	11.1
Ben Gordon	53.2	42.2	11.0
Richard Hamilton	49.4	40.4	9.0
Charlie Villanueva	51.5	43.4	8.1
Will Bynum	50.3	42.9	7.4
Rodney Stuckey	47.6	40.4	7.2
Austin Daye	52.5	45.8	6.7
Jonas Jerebko	55.2	49.5	5.7
Tayshaun Prince	49.3	45.3	4.0
Jason Maxiell	52.5	50.5	2.0
Chris Wilcox	53.2	52.5	0.7
Ben Wallace	51.5	53.3	-1.8
Kwame Brown	49.6	52.4	-2.8

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Tags: Ben Gordon, Ben Wallace, DaJuan Summers, Kwame Brown
]]> http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/03/pistons-most-underrated-shooters/feed/ 0 http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/02/nine-potential-kwame-brown-trades/ http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/02/nine-potential-kwame-brown-trades/#comments Thu, 18 Feb 2010 08:20:38 +0000 Dan Feldman http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=2622 Happy Trade Deadline Day!

I’ll be traveling until about 1 p.m. today, but I will try to check in when I can. Graham will likely handle some updates, too. So, don’t worry. We’ll provide full coverage of today’s happenings.

Maybe I can even get lucky and get a head start. As I said before, I think trading Kwame Brown makes the most sense for the Pistons. With that in mind, here are nine potential deals with Brown as the centerpiece.

When I have them, my fellow TrueHoop Network blogger’s thoughts are included.

A couple ideas were ruined as I was preparing this post. (Wouldn’t Brown for Al Thornton and Sebastian Telfair have made sense?)

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Brown and DaJuan Summers for Nenad Krstic

I’d be a huge fan of this deal. Krstic is a solid defender and a capable inside scorer. He’s under contract next season, which is why Detroit seems to have a chance of prying him from the cap-conscience Thunder.

Royce Young of Daily Thunder:

I think it makes sense. Krstic is OKC’s most expendable rotation player. However, I could see Presti sitting pat because I think he might be a little worried about screwing with chemistry and I don’t know how Kwame Brown would fit in. But overall, I think it works. Summers would be a nick pickup because currently, OKC doesn’t have anyone behind KD on the depth chart. Thabo and Jeff Green can both slide to that spot, but no one officially plays small forward behind Durant.

Orlando Magic

• Brown for Brandon Bass

The Pistons pursued Bass in the summer, but he signed a four-year, $18 million deal with Orlando instead. He hasn’t played as well as the Magic had hoped, but do they have enough buyer’s remorse to deal him for an expiring contract already?

Zach McCann of Orlando Magic Daily:

To gain an expiring contract and save a few bucks down the line, it makes sense. But the Magic would never, ever do it.
1. They feel Bass for 4 years, $18 million is a solid deal (even if they aren’t using him).
and
2. Making that trade would be Otis Smith admitting he made a mistake with the Bass signing. And I don’t see him throwing himself under the bus that way.
That’s my opinion, anyway.

Atlanta Hawks

• Brown for Mo Evans, Jason Collins and a pick

Atlanta would be offering a sweetener in the form of a draft pick for Detroit taking Evans, who is under contract next season. Collins’ contract expires after this season.

Bret Lagree of Hoopinion:

It makes sense for next year (Evans is, I believe, a sure bet to exercise his player option) but I’m struggling to think of who the Hawks would get to replace Evans in the rotation. The organization is really wary of change and, despite the Mario West fixation, I don’t think they want to give him a bigger role, thank goodness.

Toronto Raptors

• Brown for Marcus Banks and a pick.

Like the previous trade, the Pistons would get a sweetener for taking an unfavorable contract that ends after next season.

Sam Holako of Raptors Republic:

I don’t mind that trade so much since Belinelli could defend the PG and Turkoglu could become the playmaker in the even of a Calderon injury.

San Antonio Spurs

• Brown and a pick for Roger Mason

I’m not sure if this makes any sense for the Pistons. Maybe if Richard Hamilton is traded for a non-shooting guard and Detroit becomes in the market for a backup shooting guard. Mason’s contract is also expiring.

Graydon Gordian of 48 Minutes of Hell:

I’m not sure it makes sense for the Spurs. With Duncan, Blair, McDyess, Bonner and Ratliff, the Spurs aren’t in dire need of frontcourt depth, although it is an interest of ours. In my opinion, we’d be trading a guy we could use situationally in the playoffs for a guy who would never see the court come the postseason. Although the pick sweetens the deal, I’m not sure it’s enough.

Dallas Mavericks

• Brown for Matt Carroll and a pick

Carroll’s contract has three years left, so this would likely be a first-round pick. I covered this deal – with Richard Hamilton and Josh Howard included – in a Trade Idea post.

Denver Nuggets

• Brown for Malik Allen, Anthony Carter, Johan Petro and Joey Graham

The Nuggets would like to add another defensive-minded big man, but I think Brown probably makes too much to fit. The small plus for Detroit would be saving a couple hundred thousand dollars. The Pistons would have to cut at least two of the players they’d receive in this trade.

Jeremy Wagner of Roundball Mining Company:

I do not think the Nuggets would even consider that.  It would add too much payroll and they are not going to add payroll unless it makes them considerably better.

Miami Heat

• Brown for James Jones and a pick

Similar to previous suggestions, the Heat would offer a draft pick to clear cap room. Jones is under contract for the next three seasons, but his deal is only partially guaranteed. So, this wouldn’t be as bad a hit to Detroit’s cap as it looks.

Memphis Grizzlies

• Brown and a protected first-round pick for Mike Conley

Like the trade with the Spurs, I’m not sure what this accomplishes for Detroit. After Pistons drafted Rodney Stuckey 15th in the same draft Conley went second, they bragged about how Stuckey was nearly as fast as Conley but a lot bigger.

But Chad Ford reported Conley is available for an expiring contract a first-round pick. Conley is talented, and the Pistons seem interested in loading up on talent regardless of position. At some point that plan will change. I’m not sure if it has yet.

• The Suns would like a young power forward and expiring contracts for Stouedmire (evidenced by their interest in trading him to Cleveland for Zydrunas Ilgauskas and J.J. Hickson).
• Phoenix would rather get Michael Beasley than Hickson.
• The Heat may be reluctant to include Dorell Wright, who has been playing well lately.
• The Suns don’t want to take back Jermaine O’Neal’s contract because they’d have to trade someone else back to Miami.

Enter the Pistons.

Here’s what I came up with:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yg9ytyc

The Pistons would also receive a draft pick.

Originally, I was thinking Detroit could receive the Marcus Banks trade exception instead of Cook. But I’m pretty sure it doesn’t work under the cap rules. Maybe you know better than me, but can an exception be traded for a single player in a three-team trade where that player goes to the third team?

Phoenix and Miami perspectives

Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns and Mathew Bunch of Hot Hot Hoops sent me some feedback on the deal.

Schwartz likes Beasley a lot more than Hickson, but he didn’t seem convinced the Suns feel the same way.  He said O’Neal would work in the trade if the Heat take Jason Richardson, but I don’t think they would. He also said Beasley would have to be included in any deal with Miami.

But Bunch doesn’t think Beasley will be traded, citing the Heat owners Mickey Arison. So, something would have to give if the Heat really are serious about getting Stoudemire. Bunch also said, if push comes to shove, Miami wouldn’t hesitate to include Wright – which would mean the Pistons wouldn’t be necessary in the trade.

Extreme version

I also came up with a crazy version of how the Pistons could help the deal work, an all-in type of trade for Miami:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yj38tkl

Trade

Pistons receive:

• Josh Howard (12.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.7 blocks, 0.3 steals)
• Matt Carroll (1.6 points, 0.3 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.0 blocks, 0.3 steals)

Mavericks receive:

• Richard Hamilton (17.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.1 blocks, 0.7 steals)
• Kwame Brown (3.5 points, 3.5 rebounds,  0.6 assists, 0.2 blocks, 0.3 steals)

Salaries

Pistons receive:

Mavericks receive:

Player option

Team option

Pistons’ perspective

Joe Dumars doesn’t want just expiring contracts for Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports. I think this deal offers more than that.

Before this season, Howard was an excellent player. He’s still good, but his production has fallen way off. If Dallas had to decide two years ago, Howard’s team option probably would have been picked up. But you can’t count on him for 20 points, seven rebounds and two assists and excellent defense every game anymore.

Hamilton’s play has picked up since returning from injury. He’s a better player than Howard right now. But Howard would give Detroit a few advantages to Hamilton.

Howard is 29, a couple years younger than Hamilton. Maybe a change in environment would do them both good.

Howard is also a better fit at small forward than Hamilton, which would free more minutes for Ben Gordon at shooting guard. Plus, Dumars seems keen on players who can play multiple positions.

Most importantly, Howard’s contract is not guaranteed past this season. This trade would shed $8,350,000 from the Pistons’ payroll this summer (assuming they decline the team option). But depending on where the cap is set, that might not give them much more to spend than the mid-level exception.

On one hand, that could give them a chance to pay a free agent more money than any team that’s over the cap. It’s would be a small advantage, but every dollar counts.

A better plan would likely be re-signing Howard for about $7 million per season (assuming he passes what would become a half-season audition) and using the mid-level exception on another player.

The Pistons would probably have room under the luxury tax threshold to do that and re-sign Will Bynum and Ben Wallace. Basically, the Pistons would be trading for Howard and another quality player (the free agent signed with the mid-level exception) or for a good, but not elite, free agent this summer (if they let Howard walk).

The trade also works without Kwame Brown and Matt Carroll, which would be a plus for the Pistons. But I think Dallas would insist both are included, so the financial hit of adding Hamilton isn’t as great.

Carroll wouldn’t be a total burden, though. His salary decreases ever year, and he could fill a role as a 3-point specialist.

Chad Ford (insider) recently analyzed five hypothetical trades. One of them was a three-way deal that included this trade (along with sending Prince to Utah for Boozer). Relevant portions:

But in any case, moving Hamilton for Howard, who has a nonguaranteed contract for 2010-11, would work well for the Pistons, for whom Hamilton’s contract has become an albatross. This trade would give them the opportunity to pursue a free agent this summer. And while they would be reluctant to swallow the three years remaining on Carroll’s contract, that’s also the length of Hamilton’s contract, which they would be shedding.

…

The Mavs would trade Howard, but they’d prefer to get someone younger than Hamilton in return. They’ve looked at Kevin Martin, Caron Butler and Andre Iguodala, but so far the Kings, Wizards and 76ers don’t want to give up those players for mere cap relief. But Dallas doesn’t have its first-round pick this year and owner Mark Cuban has said he’s not trading rookie point guard Rodrigue Beaubois — and the Mavs don’t have much else to offer in terms of inexpensive assets. So Hamilton might be the best they can do.

His contract is ugly — he has $34 million in guaranteed money owed to him over the next three seasons after this one. At the same time, the Mavs would be ridding themselves of the remaining $12 million due Carroll over the next three seasons. Looking at it that way, Dallas would be getting Hamilton for about $7.5 million per year for the next three seasons. While that’s not a bargain, he would help them offensively, stepping in as the starting 2-guard and providing another veteran shooter in the backcourt.

Mavericks’ perspective

For each trade, I will seek the analysis of the other team’s TrueHoop Network blogger.

Rob Mahoney of The Two Man Game:

“Josh Howard’s inconsistent and uninspiring play has put the Mavs in a tough spot. If Howard plays up to the level that the Mavs know he’s capable of, he’d be a stellar complement to a Mavs core that could certainly use his scoring and perimeter defense. But at this point, Howard’s lows are so much of a downer that they negate any potential highs; any coach, any team, and an fan base can only take so many two of ten shooting nights before patience begins to wear thin.

The most infuriating thing about Howard’s decline is that it’s practically nonsensical. Josh played exceptionally well in last year’s first round series against the Spurs before being shut down for the second round match-up with the Nuggets. Since then, Josh has battled and recovered from a few different injuries, throwing the Mavs’ rotation for a bit of a loop in the process. But when Howard hits the court, his past injuries are hardly apparent; he has no noticeable limp, he doesn’t favor one side over another, and his movements, leaping, and shooting stroke all appear to be relatively normal. But his effort level? A bit lacking at times. His shot-selection? Getting better, but occasionally worrisome. His once heralded perimeter defense? Strong some nights, and gone the next. Dirk Nowitzki needs some consistent help, and the Mavs as a whole need a more active defender at the 2.

Enter Rip Hamilton. On the surface, he’s not an ideal fit; he’s older than the Mavs’ other rumored trade targets, his contract runs long and hits hard, and as a kicker, he’s having a bit of an off-year. But a change of scenery can do wonders for a player, and I don’t think it’s terribly unreasonable to expect a slight pickup in Rip’s production if he was traded to a playoff-caliber team (and with his addition, hopefully more than just playoff-caliber).

The hardest sell on a Josh-Rip swap would be Mark Cuban. Hamilton is owed $37.5 million over the next three years, and while it could possibly make the Mavs better now, Rip will be a ghost of his former self by the time his deal runs out. Plus, with the new CBA due in 2011, it’s entirely possible that a player of Hamilton’s stature would (in the future) go on the free agent market for significantly less than $12.5 million per.
The Mavs’ other potential deals would need to fall through. Maybe Sacramento is clearly resolved to keep Kevin Martin, Phoenix pries away Andre Iguodala for Amar’e Stoudemire, and Houston (or per the latest rumor: Boston) nabs Caron Butler. The Mavs still would be looking to make a change to improve their roster, and while a Josh for Rip trade straight-up may not grab Mark Cuban’s attention, the inclusion of Kwame Brown (or more importantly, his expiring contract — the man is destined to be trade fodder) and Matt Carroll (or more importantly, his contract — the man is destined to be a bench-warmer in Dallas, but he’s due $11.7 million over the next three years). It wouldn’t exactly slide the Mavs under the cap or even under the luxury tax line, but scrapping Carroll’s deal could help persuade Cuban to take on a bigger financial commitment – like Richard Hamilton.”

My response

I think Hamilton’s production would go up more as a product of getting back in shape after an injury. But going to a contender certainly wouldn’t hurt, either.

Otherwise, I think Rob’s analysis is spot-on.

Verdict

The Pistons would say yes. The Mavericks would say yes if they haven’t found a better offer by the trade deadline.

Previous

• Getting out of Richard Hamilton’s and Jason Maxiell’s long-term contracts and getting immediate help
• Bring David West to the Detroit Pistons
• Dumping Jason Maxiell
• Acquiring Ty Lawson in a three-way trade
• Going after Amar’e Stoudemire

Jonas Jerebko becoming the Pistons’ starting power forward has been a major storyline. But another undersized frontline player’s increased minutes as a result of that move has been overlooked.

That should change now.

Although he played the position at times prior, Jason Maxiell has become Detroit’s primary backup center in its revamped rotation.

In last night’s 93-81 win over the Bucks, Maxiell had 14 points, 10 rebounds and two steals – first double-double of the season. He was also a team-best plus-21.

Chris Wilcox and Kwame Brown have played just a combined 21 minutes in the five games since Jerebko became the starting power forward.

Maxiell has played 74 minutes at center in the span. He’s averaging 9.6 and 7.0 rebounds in 23 minutes per game and making 65 percent of his shots.

With Ben Wallace planted on the bench, Maxiell played the entire fourth quarter at center last night. The Pistons outscored the Bucks, 29-19, in the final frame.

Still, Maxiell has played 36 percent of his minutes at power forward in the last five games, and his plus-minus has been better at that position.

• Power forward: plus-15 in 42 minutes.
• Center: even in 73 minutes.

But Maxiell’s center play is certainly intriguing.

In the short term, he’s easily the Pistons’ best backup center. They’re an extreme long shot for the playoffs, so that probably doesn’t matter. But let’s check it out just in case.

82Games breaks down every Pistons’ production by position through Feb. 3. Here are the plus-minuses per 48 minutes at center for each player who has spent a significant amount of time at the position:

• Ben Wallace: –2.4
• Jason Maxiell: –3.1
• Kwame Brown: –6.8
• Chris Wilcox: –19.5

The long-term possibilities of Maxiell becoming a center are less certain, but they offer a much greater reward.

Until this run, Detroit’s only reliable center had been a 35-year-old Ben Wallace. Wilcox and Brown definitely aren’t long-term answers at the position, either.

I don’t think Maxiell, who will be 27 a week from Thursday, can be a reliable starting center in the NBA. There would just be too many nights he’d be too small.

But if you had to pick a Piston most likely to be in the rotation at position in three years, wouldn’t you have to say Maxiell? You could make a case for Jonas Jerebko, but I think he projects best at small forward.

Joe Dumars has said he wants to use the rest of this season to determine what type of team the Pistons have. I hope he’s keeping a close eye on whether they can be successful with Maxiell as their backup center.

Benching the other backup centers

Jerebko taking his power forward minutes hasn’t been the only reason Maxiell has become the backup center. The other centers on the team have been benched.

This makes a lot of sense with Wilcox. He was given a chance and failed.

But what about Kwame Brown? From Terry Foster of the Detroit News:

"Our biggest concern and I have discussed it with him is defense," Kuester said. "We have to make sure he continually plays the consistent defense that I want to in the scheme. That is pick-and-roll, high pick-and-roll. Just making sure he knows."

If Brown didn’t know, he knows now. That is why he laughed when Kuester’s words were relayed to him.

"Listen, man, I don’t want something to be flared up on what I say," Brown said. "I will do what the coach says in order to get better, although that is a first because there is one thing I do bring to the table and that is defense. That’s the first time I heard that. It’s the first time a coach said I don’t play defense. But like I said, I will learn to play the defense he wants me to play."

This obviously isn’t the only reason Brown hasn’t played much. He’s definitely a better defender than Wilcox, and Wilcox has received a lot more playing time. Foster gives a clue at the reason:

Brown is frustrated and some of that might have flared up during a blowout loss to the Pacers. Kuester summoned Brown into the game but didn’t like how long it took him to get off the bench and decided against using him.

Brown said the incident has been resolved and that he was not angry with Kuester for putting him in during garbage time.

"I have played during 20-point blow-outs. I have come in during the last two minutes of a game," Brown said. "It doesn’t matter. I am paid to play whenever they tell me to. It does not matter to me."

That doesn’t explain why Brown had been stuck on the bench before Friday. Maybe that incident is just an example of an attitude problem. A Ben Wallace quote gives a little more insight. Via Foster:

"Without a doubt he can contribute," Wallace said. "But he got to want it. He’s got to be hungry, man. For me to say you got to do this and do, that’s pointless. You got to want it. Look, man, when you go out there, you got to do what you got to do. If you go out there and are making the same mistakes the starters are making, then you don’t need to be out there."

It’s obvious Brown has the physical ability to play better than he has this year – and his entire career, frankly. If I had a guess, Kuester is trying to motivate Brown to play with more intensity. But I’m not sure Kuester will be the cause if that happens.

His looming free agency might be enough for Brown to get his act together.

Win feels good

The Pistons have won back-to-back games for the first time 24 days. They also picked up their first win in 20 days against a team not on pace to have the worst single-season record of all time.

Credit for new features

If you haven’t noticed, I’ve been starting each game review with a couple links at the top. It’s time to come clean.

I completely stole the idea from Royce Young of Daily Thunder. He does a great job, and I definitely recommend following his blog if you want to know about the NBA’s next elite team.

I also added a third link beginning today. Sebastian Pruiti, who runs Nets Are Scorching and NBAPlaybook.com, directed me to PopcornMachine.net. It’s a cool site that tracks how different lineups perform in each game.

More coverage

Check out Jeremy Schmidt’s recap on Bucksketball.

But in all likelihood, they won’t. And I think there’s good reason.

I’m all for making trade that upgrades the team – whether that be short- or long-term. But the odds of that happening are low. Nearly any trade the Pistons could make would involve selling low.

Go through the Pistons’ roster. How many players do you think will be more valuable at this time next year than they are right now?

Charting expected value

Value is determined by two factors: how good a player is and how much he makes. (Age factors into both). So, here’s how I see each factor applying to the Pistons’ trade bait.

• A plus mean a player should be more valuable next year.
• A minus mean a player should be less valuable next year.
• An equal sign means the player should be equally valuable next year.

The Pistons seem intent on building around Rodney Stuckey, so I don’t think he’s tradable. And rookies aren’t traded often, so I didn’t include them, either.

My thinking on the first seven players in the chart:

• Hamilton, Prince, Gordon and Bynum all lost significant time to injury. They have to be better next year, right?
• Hamilton will have one fewer season left on his contract, and Prince’s expiring deal could be quite valuable. On a smaller scale, the same is true with Maxiell and Wilcox’s expiring contract.
• Gordon and Villanueva will each have one few year left on their contracts, but the amount they’re owed per year goes up. Any team that acquires one of them would making a long-term commitment. I’d call that a wash.
• Bynum’s contract is up after this season, and he will be paid more next year, likely by Detroit.

The exceptions

That leaves only two players whose value will likely decrease next year – Ben Wallace and Kwame Brown.

It’s amazing what Wallace is doing at 35. He’d be even more amazing if he’s doing it at 36. His value is probably the highest it will be the rest of his career.

But he came back to play in Detroit. I don’t think he’ll be traded without his permission.

So, the only player I think the Pistons should make a concerted effort to trade is Brown. Many teams need an extra center and an expiring contract, and he would provide both.

Brown hasn’t been in the Pistons’ rotation in a couple months, so I’d guess this is his last year in Detroit. If his contract expires at the end of the season and he signs elsewhere, the Pistons will get nothing in return for him.

Maybe the right deal is out there for Hamilton or Prince – but it’s far more likely Detroit would receive the most value from trading Brown.

Trade

Pistons receive:

• Amar’e Stoudemire (21.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.0 blocks, 0.7 steals)
• Jarron Collins (0.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.2 blocks, 0.0 steals)

Suns receive:

• Charlie Villanueva (13.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.8 blocks, 0.7 steals)
• Kwame Brown (3.5 points, 3.5 rebounds,  0.6 assists, 0.2 blocks, 0.3 steals)
• Chris Wilcox (4.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.4 blocks, 0.4 steals)
• First-round draft pick (lottery protected this year, top-10 next year, top-5 the next year and top-1 forever)

Salaries

Pistons receive:

Suns receive:

Player option

Pistons’ perspective

Well, I figured it was about time I tackled the Amar’e-to-Detroit rumors. Right off the bat, let me say this: I don’t think the Pistons have what it takes to land Stoudemire. But Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns and I discussed a few ideas, and we think this is the most realistic option.

I think this deal would have to be a no-brainer for the Pistons. They’re essentially trading three bench players and a draft pick for a star – a young big man at that.

All of a sudden, they’d have a guards Rodney Stuckey and Ben Gordon, forwards Austin Daye and Jonas Jerebko and Stoudemire at center. That’s a young lineup full of promise to build around for the next several years.

I think a Gordon and Stoudemire could be deadly on the pick-and-roll. And Stoudemire’s inside play would create jump shots for Daye and to a degree, Jerebko and Stuckey.

There are a few drawbacks, though.

If Stoudemire opts out of his contract, he could be gone after this year. The Pistons likely wouldn’t have the cap room to sign a max free agent, but they still could get an excellent player.

If Stoudemire doesn’t opt out, the Pistons could be forced to let Ben Wallace and/or Will Bynum walk or trade someone else to stay under the luxury-tax line next season.

Detroit has very little size and would be losing a lot of it. Jarron Collins would be a stop-gap to help that problem a little. The Pistons would probably look to add a free agent center for the rest of the season, too.

And of course, if the Pistons struggle after this trade, that draft pick could end up pretty valuable.

John Hollinger also analyzed the trade in a recent column (Insider):

Detroit: Nobody is quite sure whether the Pistons are coming or going these days, but one option to think about is a trade of Charlie Villanueva for Stoudemire. That would get the Suns a younger player at a more reasonable salary and pave the way for the rebuilding process, and the Pistons could line the deal with expiring contracts (Chris Wilcox and Kwame Brown) to make the salary-cap math work. Such a deal would give Phoenix $10 million of additional wiggle room around the luxury tax and, of course, a replacement for Stoudemire.

From Detroit’s perspective, it would be taking a risk by committing to Stoudemire and adding another long-term contract to a fairly large stable of them. Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon and Jason Maxiell all have at least two years left after this one at big numbers, and Rodney Stuckey is likely to join them because the Pistons can extend him this summer. Although there isn’t any threat that the Pistons could become a tax team, it would be a heavy salary structure for a club that’s losing big and is in the process of changing owners.

For that reason, the odds tilt heavily against such a deal taking place, but from the Phoenix perspective, it would be one of the more intriguing options.

Suns’ perspective

For each trade, I will seek the analysis of the other team’s TrueHoop Network blogger.

Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns:

“Although lately the Amare Stoudemire trade rumors that have interested me the most have been those involving Andre Iguodala and Philadelphia, if I were Suns GM Steve Kerr I would at least take a moment to contemplate it if Joe Dumars offered me Charlie Villanueva, Kwame Brown, Chris Wilcox and a protected first-rounder for Stoudemire.

I believe the Suns need to get a potential All-Star young stud and a big in any Amare trade. In the right deal that could be the same person, such as a Michael Beasley or Al Jefferson.

This Detroit deal would essentially involve the Suns receiving cap relief/filler and Charlie V.

There are many things I love about Villanueva, and it’s not just because I follow him on Twitter. He’s a young big who knows how to score the basketball and would play well with Nash on the offensive end (but then again, who doesn’t?). His salary ranging from $6.5 million this year to an $8.5 million player option in 2013-14 is fairly reasonable for a guy of his skill set.

On the other hand, he doesn’t even defend or rebound as well as Amare does, and that’s not tough to do for a 6-foot-11 performer.

As for the salary reasons, the Suns would be taking back nearly $3 million less in salary, which would amount to a savings of close to $6 million when factoring in luxury tax savings. Losing Brown’s expiring deal next season, the Suns would save $7-10 mil next year depending on if Wilcox picks up his $3 mil option (likely) as compared to their cap situation if Amare stays and picks up his $17.7 mil option.

That would put the Suns in the $52-55 million range if Grant Hill and Channing Frye pick up their options (or more if they decline and are re-signed for more), which means this deal would take Phoenix out of the Summer of 2010.

If Amare were to opt out and leave, this deal would add $7 or $10 mil to Phoenix’s 2010-11 cap in comparison to what it would be without him.

So in summary, the Suns would be receiving a solid player in Charlie V and a solid draft pick as well as some short-term cap relief but a 2010 cap detriment that limits Phoenix’s future flexibility.

Upon further review, I would decline this deal if I were Suns GM Steve Kerr because Villanueva is not the kind of player who would move me to get rid of Amare, especially with the Suns having won five in a row to vault into the No. 5 spot in the West.

My response

I completely agree. Stoudemire should fetch a better player than the Pistons have to offer. They could probably get better cap relief than having to take Chris Wilcox, too.

Verdict

The Pistons would say yes. The Suns would say no.

Previous

• Getting out of Richard Hamilton’s and Jason Maxiell’s long-term contracts and getting immediate help
• Bring David West to the Detroit Pistons
• Dumping Jason Maxiell
• Acquiring Ty Lawson in a three-way trade

Highest grade for each player – Lowest grade for each player

DF: Dan Feldman of PistonPowered

VE: Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press

DP: Dave Pemberton of The Oakland Press

PH: Patrick Hayes of Full-Court Press

CI: Chris Iott of MLive

JR: Justin Rogers of Full-Court Press

KS: Kevin Sawyer of Detroit Bad Boys

NS: Natalie Sitto of Need4Sheed (Unfortunately, I misplaced my Sheed-to-GPA conversion chart, so Natalie’s grades aren’t included in the average.)