Category → Game Preview
Rematch in San Antonio
Essentials
- Teams: Detroit Pistons (23-38) at San Antonio Spurs (46-14)
- Date: March 3, 2013
- Time: 7:00 p.m.
- Television: FSD
What to look for
The San Antonio Spurs are unquestionably one of the best teams in the league as evidenced b their league leading 46 wins. The Spurs have long been a model of NBA excellence and this season is no exception.
In the Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan era, San Antonio has failed to win 50 games just once. And that one occurrence was during the 1998-99 lockout season in which every team played an even 50 games.
Even the 2011-12 shorted campaigned in which the Spurs as well as all other NBA teams played 66 games produced a 50-win season by Manu Ginobili and company.
San Antonio’s success stems from the environment that Popovich has created: it favors discipline, team play and the old basketball adage of “playing the right way”.
In this respect, the Spurs are more than likely the closest thing we will ever see to an NBA team blending both the professional and collegiate aspects of basketball.
Indeed, San Antonio has three terrific talents in Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to take over games whenever needed and potentially take advantage of favorable matchups.
The trio is surrounded by a host of specialists that all perfectly complement their skills: ball-handlers, shooters, passers, rebounders and the like.
The collegiate feel comes into play when we look at their execution on both sides of the ball. Pop will rarely call for isolation plays — even late in games — favoring instead ball movement to force defenses to worry about every single player on the court.
Consequently San Antonio players do basic things like set several screens, cut to the hoop, dive to the basket and run misdirection plays on the regular. NBA teams typically do these things in small doses while the Spurs do these things seemingly on each and every possession.
The end result is a team with the fourth best offense in the league coupled with the third best defense given their attention to detail.
With that said, the Detroit Pistons were victorious against them at the Palace of Auburn Hills on February 8th despite a terrific all-around performance from Tony Parker.
Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili both were absent from the lineup in that contest.
Tonight’s game will present the Spurs with a different challenge altogether with news coming out that Tony Parker is expected to miss the next four weeks due to an ankle injury.
The former Finals MVP is enjoying his best season as an NBA player and is undoubtedly the best player for the Spurs.
In addition, he is arguably the second best point guard in the league behind Chris Paul because of his ability to run the offense, create plays and score whenever the situation calls for it. His play this season coupled with the Spurs’ wining has elevated him into the league MVP discussion.
Needless to say, Duncan and the rest of his teammates will have to pick up the slack to make up for the absence of Parker.
This may result in a small spike in the minutes of Manu Ginobili who is averaging a mere 23.3 minutes per game. His scoring and playmaking will help mitigate the absence of the Frenchman but not entirely. Thus, it’s possible Popovich turns to Duncan and Boris Diaw for a bit more minutes as well for scoring and ensuring ball movement remains sharp.
Read about the Spurs
Hornets a better team going forward?
Essentials
- Teams: Detroit Pistons (23-37) at New Orleans Hornets (20-39)
- Date: March 1, 2013
- Time: 8:00 p.m.
- Television: FSD
What to look for
The Detroit Pistons will resume their three-game road trip tonight with a stop in Louisiana to face the New Orleans Hornets. The contest away from home is going to raise an uncomfortable question for the Detroit faithful: which roster is preferable going forward?
One might be inclined to immediately side with Detroit given the presence of a potential elite big man in Greg Monroe coupled with the ever-promising Andre Drummond.
The Georgetown product should at least remain a Piston until the summer of 2015 while Drummond is a sure bet to remain with the franchise until the 2017 offseason.
Also, Brandon Knight has shown flashes of brilliance that suggest he may well become a top-flight lead guard one day and his qualifying offer would kick in for the 2015-16 season.
Jose Calderon may choose to stick around for the long haul, but he is projected to become a free agent at the end of this season and the Pistons are scheduled to have a bit of cap room to potentially spend on a player or two.
But here’s the tricky thing: the Hornets have roughly those same advantages if not more.
The Pistons have more victories than the Hornets, but their records are quite similar and the Hollinger Power Rankings indicate that Monty Williams’ team has played tougher opponents by virtue of the conference they compete in.
Things get interesting when we look at the Hornets’ salaries for the foreseeable future. Barring any trades, the core of Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis will remain together until the summer of 2016.
Anthony Davis’ rookie deal would tentatively expire at the conclusion of the 2016-17, thus giving the franchise time to possibly surround him with more talent.
Keep in mind, New Orleans should in fact have as much cap room available this summer as Detroit. The Hornets’ future seems to include Greivis Vasquez (third in the league in assists per game) who is signed until the end of the 2014-15 season to a contract paying him peanuts in comparison to the NBA’s top assist leaders.
The New Orleans Hornets have a young roster, but all of the players will be given a chance to grow together as the team gains experience through trial and error.
The last point is particularly interesting given that they have been awful defensively this year, a fact that can be attributed to their youth and inexperience. Two seasons ago, Monty Williams’ defense was ranked in the top 10 (in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions) and progressively got worse as the roster became younger.
It stands to reason that he will once again be able to implement his sound principles with the team as they gain more experience and understand the finer details of NBA defenses.
Thus, it’s quite difficult to project for these Pistons to ascend more rapidly than these Hornets. The one wildcard in all of this though could be the strength or lack there of in the east.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers will have some interesting summers this year given the players that will become free agents. It could potentially derail both teams or make them better.
Mind you, these very same potential free agents (Andrew Bynum, Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings) could also end up signing with other teams in the Eastern Conference that are fringe playoff contenders and consequently block Detroit’s path to ascension.
The Hornets may not look like much now, but in a very near future, they could become a team Pistons fans envy.
Read about the Hornets
Pistons travel to nation’s capital
Essentials
- Teams: Detroit Pistons (22-37) at Washington Wizards (18-37)
- Date: February 27, 2013
- Time: 7:00 p.m.
- Television: FSD
What to look for
The Washington Wizards have won seven of their last 10 games and have played much better basketball since John Wall returned to the lineup. In fact, Wall’s return prompted Randy Wittman to glue Jordan Crawford to the bench and eventually trade him to the Boston Celtics where his gunning talents will more than likely be appreciated.
The Wizards have played some good basketball as of late, but it’s worth noting that one their losses in this recent stretch of success came at the hands of the Detroit Pistons.
On February 13th, Detroit hosted Washington and won by double digits thanks to a Pistons 31-point scoring outburst in the fourth quarter.
Lawrence Frank’s group destroyed Wall and company on the boards, winning the rebounding battle 48 to 32, with Greg Monroe pulling down 18 boards on his own.
Also, the Pistons converted 9-of-18 shots from 3-point range, with Jose Calderon connecting on six-of-nine treys.
The long-range shooting may or may not be reproduced, but the effort on the boards certainly has to be replicated if Detroit plans on stealing one on the road tonight.
The Wizards surrender 99.8 points per 100 possessions (tied for eighth in the NBA) because they collectively rotate to the paint to close off driving angles and display a great amount of discipline as far as helping and recovering.
In addition, they are quick to jump into passing lanes and swipe at the ball whenever ballhandlers try getting to the rim against them. They are quite similar to the Memphis Grizzlies in this respect and it consequently forces teams launch from the outside to loosen up the defense.
The last time these teams met, Detroit was able to take advantage of Washington’s defense by hitting from downtown to open things up a little, but the Wizards still forced 17 turnovers.
If the Pistons protect the ball and get on the boards, it should go a long way towards helping them take this contest from the home team.
Read about the Wizards
Pistons host the Hawks tonight
Essentials
- Teams: Atlanta Hawks (31-23) at Detroit Pistons (22-36)
- Date: February 25, 2013
- Time: 7:30 p.m.
- Television: FSD
What to look for
The Detroit Pistons just recently loss back-to-back games in a home-and-home set against the Indiana Pacers.
Indy flexed their muscles defensively much like they have all season, and held the Pistons to 82 and 72 points respectively in the two contests. With Detroit getting blown out in both games, it prompted us over here at Piston Powered to verify the trends involving Lawrence Frank teams getting routed.
The Pistons have had trouble scoring the basketball this season, consequently good defensive teams have given them a lot of trouble.
This is particularly pertinent going into tonight’s game against the Atlanta Hawks because they only allow 101.3 points per 100 possessions (tied for ninth in the NBA).
One might be inclined to believe that Atlanta might simply shut down Detroit and produce another route at the Palace of Auburn Hills. But not so fast.
On January 4th, the Pistons defeated the Hawks at home despite only producing 85 points. The odd thing about that contest was that Frank’s unit should have produced far more points but just consistently missed point blank shots at the rim.
The Pistons scored 52 points in the paint, thanks to a staggering 38 shots right at the rim.
The average NBA team takes 25.5 shots at the basket and converts 64.4 percent of those looks per Hoopdata. But in the case of the Pistons, they produced far more than the average amount of these said shots, but only converted half of them.
Brandon Knight and company generated these attempts by beating defenders off the dribble, cutting to the basket after pick-and-rolls, victimizing players in the post and pounding the offensive glass (17 offensive rebounds).
It’s worth noting that Josh Smith and Al Horford served as an impediment at the rim and altered a few shots here and there, but for the most part Detroit players manufactured some quality looks at the rim.
Granted, if the last two Atlanta games versus Sacramento and Milwaukee are any sort of indication, the Hawks may have very well made the necessary adjustments to take away the same shots the Pistons produced in their last encounter.
The Hawks were victorious against the Kings and Bucks thanks to stout defensive efforts that only yielded 40 points in the paint on average from both opponents. That figure is coincidentally the exact amount they allow per game on the season and represents the seventh best mark in the league.
Considering that Detroit is a subpar offensive team, it would behoove them to generate as many easy shot attempts as possible. If Frank can diagram a few sets to take advantage of the Hawks’ rotations and get a plethora of looks at the rim, the Pistons should have a great chance of defeating Atlanta at home tonight.
Read about the Hawks
Brandon Knight out, Danny Granger in for Pistons-Pacers rematch
Essentials
- Teams: Detroit Pistons (22-35) at Indiana Pacers (34-21)
- Date: February 23, 2013
- Time: 7 p.m.
- Television: Fox Sports Detroit
What to look for
The Pacers beat the Pistons by 32 last night. How much worse can it get tonight?
Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star:
Danny Granger will make his season debut tonight in Detroit, according to a source.
Well, maybe the Pistons will get one of their injured players back?
Vincent Goodwill of The Detroit News:
Knight is out tonight. MRI revealed some fluid behind the knee
Good luck, Detroit!
Read about the Pacers
Pistons hit the road and play at Indiana
Essentials
- Teams: Detroit Pistons (22-34) at Indiana Pacers (33-21)
- Date: February 22, 2013
- Time: 7:00 p.m.
- Television: FSD
What to look for
After thrashing the New York Knicks by 34 points on Wednesday night, the Indiana Pacers earned a little bit of national attention for their performance. It’s well deserved, but actually a bit late.
The Pacers have the third best record in the Eastern Conference and are breathing down the Knickerbockers’ neck for the second seed in the east despite Danny Granger’s absence from the lineup this season.
Frank Vogel’s unit has won six-of-eight games in the month of February, and their lone two defeats came in overtime against a surging Brooklyn Nets team that has now won four games in a row and a Toronto Raptors squad that has won six-of-nine contests since acquiring Rudy Gay.
Indiana’s recent stretch of good basketball coincides with an increase in offensive production that has them looking like somewhat of a juggernaut. In their eight games this month, they are scoring 108.7 points per 100 possessions — if we remove the blowout victory over the Knicks, they still produce 106.8 points per 100 possession — per NBA.com’s advanced stats tool, which would be the third best mark in the Association.
It’s not a case of the Pacers defeating a bunch of matadors either. In this recent stretch, they’ve produced impressive showings against the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks; all of which are in the top 12 of defensive efficiency rankings this season.
Part of the reason Indy has thrived offensively as of late is due to Paul George’s emergence as a playmaker and David West’s willingness to capitalize off the newfound opportunities presented by his teammate.
The Pacers’ strength is their frontcourt and thus opponents and fans expect them to relentlessly pound the ball on the interior and force double teams and what have you.
Vogel does a good job of creating some misdirection plays where it looks as though the ball is supposed to go inside on the block, but in actuality he’s running a player off a screen on the weak side to catch and shoot or catch and drive.
In many instances, that player can be Paul George or George Hill, both of which are more than competent at attacking the paint off the dribble.
Make no mistake though, Indiana will do their damage on the interior.
On Jan. 30, the Pacers used Paul George on the interior to set some terrific screens for both David West and Roy Hibbert against the Detroit Pistons and it gave them fits.
Both of Indiana’s starting big men had opportunities to catch the ball on the move going to the basket, as a result of George’s screen setting, but Detroit players eventually got into trouble with their defensive assignments and double-teamed one player off the ball while the Pacers’ small forward broke free for an uncontested shot or dive to the basket.
It’s worth noting that Roy Hibbert and company own the best defense in the league. Believe it or not though, Greg Monroe shredded it the last time these two teams played.
Indeed, the Georgetown product was able to consistently get to his left hand against Hibbert to drive the ball to the hole, and he also victimized him on the low block with reverse pivots and pump fakes on his way to 18 points.
Indiana took control of the contest by simply ignoring weak side shooters and cutters to load up on the ball side. Vogel essentially came to the conclusion that the Pistons didn’t have the passers required to find the open players close to the basket on the weak side of the court and he was right. But that was before Jose Calderon joined the team.
In addition, Indy dared Detroit to beat them from deep by giving the Pistons players some open shots on the weak side of the floor, and Lawrence Frank’s group couldn’t make them pay as evidenced by their 3-for-18 shooting from 3-point range. Again, pre-Calderon.
Make no mistake though, the Pacers can be defeated.
Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum showed that Indiana has trouble containing penetration off the dribble from quick guards early in defensive possessions and that’s an area where Detroit will have to succeed to pull out this contest.
Also, sharing the basketball and cutting to the hoop will be important against a tough defense that will send Roy Hibbert no higher than the free throw line in pick-and-roll defense. If ball handlers can drive at the Pacers’ center and find cutters heading to the basket, it will give them an easy look at the rim with Hibbert out of the picture.
Read about the Pacers
Statistical support provided by NBA.com.
Pistons try to bounce back in Charlotte
Essentials
- Teams: Detroit Pistons (21-34) at Charlotte Bobcats (13-40)
- Date: February 20, 2013
- Time: 7:00 p.m.
- Television: FSD
What to look for
The world took the time to sit down, pause and look back at the illustrious career of the greatest of all-time this past weekend as Michael Jordan celebrated his 50th anniversary.
His birthday coupled with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s admission that he lost a one-on-one battle against his Airness led many to openly wonder whether Jordan could play the game today.
The most interesting aspect of a potential MJ comeback is that several are saying that he could in fact play and be successful in the NBA. But part of the reason that many feel that way is because it’s widely assumed he would play on the Bobcats, and well they aren’t exactly a juggernaut.
Indeed, whether consciously or not, most associate a Jordan return to him playing for Charlotte where he could in fact get a few minutes per game.
The Bobcats score 98.2 points per 100 possessions (29th in the league) because they do not have players capable of consistently creating high percentage shots for themselves or teammates. Consequently, they tend to shoot early in the shot clock because otherwise they are destined to take an extremely low percentage shot.
Thus, a quick pick-and-pop shot or a drive to the basket after a pass or two are things to expect from Kemba Walker and company.
Their spacing is less than ideal and they lack great finishers on the roster.
Gerald Henderson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will get some points at the rim, but only if they are required to take on one lone defender at the basket. Anything more is likely to produce a miss.
On the other side of the ball, Charlotte yields 107.9 points per 100 possessions (29th in the NBA) because their collective IQ gets in their way more often than not.
They are a young team that plays with a lot of effort and energy, but their positioning on defense leaves much to be desired. Their youth serves as an impediment on this side of the court as more experienced teams often expose them.
They throw out random double teams that seem to be unscripted, switch in the pick-and-roll early in the shot clock at times or blitz ball handlers while some weak side defenders have no idea what’s happening in front of them.
Put it all together and it leads to Stan Van Gundy making the statement last week on the Dan LeBatard show that none of the Charlotte players could start for the Cleveland Cavaliers at present time.
The Cleveland Cavaliers!
With that said, the Charlotte Bobcats are still an NBA team that plays hard, and should opponents take them lightly, they might set themselves up to get stung.
Read about the Bobcats
Memphis Grizzlies and Tayshaun Prince hit Detroit…
Essentials
- Teams: Memphis Grizzlies (33-18) at Detroit Pistons (21-33)
- Date: February 19, 2013
- Time: 7:30 p.m.
- Television: FS Detroit Plus
What to look for
The Memphis Grizzlies will be at the Palace of Auburn Hills tonight to take on the Detroit Pistons after winning three games in a row.
Sentimental Pistons fans will have one last opportunity to see Tayshaun Prince tonight when he starts for the Grizzlies in tonight’s contest in his first ever return to Detroit as member of an opposing team since being traded a few weeks earlier.
Hopefully he is showered with a standing ovation for his contributions to the franchise.
But as it pertains to Memphis, that very same trade changed their team dynamic to some extent.
Indeed, Lionel Hollins’ team owns the second best defense in the league, allowing 97.7 points per 100 possessions; but that very same defense has taken a small step back since swapping players.
Since the trade, the Grizzlies are surrendering 99.6 points per 100 possessions according to NBA.com’s advanced stats tool.
The difference isn’t huge but one still exists. And keep in mind, it’s not as if Memphis has faced a long list of offensive juggernauts. The teams they’ve faced are the Washington Wizards, Phoenix Suns, Atlanta Hawks, Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings.
The most glaring difference in the Grizzlies’ defense is their lack of aggression. Prior to jettisoning Rudy Gay, the players had an impressive level of comfort defensively that allowed them to play an aggressive and physical defense on the perimeter with Marc Gasol cleaning things up on the back end whenever his teammates were beat.
With the small switch in personnel, it’s possible that the current Memphis players need to develop that type of defensive chemistry to force opponents into more miscues and tough shots.
It’s worth noting that the Grizzlies’ coaching staff may have used the All-Star break as an opportunity to assess their players’ strength and weaknesses to tweak things a little and get the roster playing in concert with one another.
Offensively though, Memphis is still a scary team to defend because of their play on the interior. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are two physical big men that pound the boards and score on the block.
Gasol is a matchup nightmare because he plays in both the high and low post and understands where to attack defenses be it with his passing, scoring or screening.
The Spaniard will run hand offs, pick-and-rolls, pick-and-pops or simply camp out on the perimeter and pick apart a defense with his multiple skills. His pairing alongside Randolph makes the Grizzlies one of the most unique teams in the league because they can invert their offense and post up a player like Tayshaun Prince with both big men camped out on the perimeter and not spend an inordinate amount of time being worried about their spacing because of Gasol’s passing (if by inadvertence Lakers fans are reading this, they are probably quite disgusted considering how Mike D’Antoni has used Pau Gasol this season).
Surprisingly, Memphis only converts 35.9 percent of their spot up jumpers per Synergy Sports. This would lead you to believe that their offense is a train wreck considering that they can’t space the floor, but the Grizzlies still score 100.6 points per 100 possessions (tied for 19th in the NBA) because of how efficient they are in the post, how well they share the ball and how they pound the offensive glass.
In other words, despite Rudy Gay being in Toronto, the Memphis Grizzlies are still a difficult team to play.
Read about the Grizzlies
Statistical support provided by NBA.com.
Three NBA Rising Stars Challenge predictions
- Brandon Knight will play well in a game that features up-tempo offenses and little defense, and many will conclude the Pistons’ slow pace is keeping Knight back. We already did the same thing with Rodney Stuckey, so I consider this a safe bet.
- Andre Drummond will have more fun as an assistant coach for Team Shaq than many participating players will have during the game.
- Team Shaq 147, Team Chuck 128
Detroit hosts John Wall and Wizards
Essentials
- Teams: Washington Wizards (15-35) at Detroit Pistons (20-33)
- Time: 7:30 p.m.
- Television: FSD
What to look for
The Detroit Pistons have defeated the Washington Wizards twice already this season and will be looking to bump that number up to three victories when they host the Wiz at the Palace of Auburn Hills tonight.
There’s just one thing: they haven’t played against these Wizards this season.
Indeed, Washington was manhandled by Detroit earlier in the season because they looked nothing like a professional basketball team. In writing the preview for the December 22nd contest between both teams, I stated:
[…] the Wizards have a roster full of players that find ways to regularly attempt to do things they cannot on offense. Whether it’s the big man firing a bullet pass to a cutting player that was open for a split second, or a perimeter player taking a jump shot after getting trapped hard in the pick-and-roll, Washington has built so many poor habits that it’s tough to consistently expect some solid offensive possessions.
Their defense at the time was one of the best in the league, but their offense was a train wreck.
The Wizards made the Sacramento Kings look like a disciplined offense reminiscent of the 1999 Utah Jazz.
Randy Wittman’s players took some incredibly ill-advised shots, made passes to fans – i.e. in the stands – and even occasionally treated passing as a mere option of their said “offense”.
Their defense helped them stay in games where there offense did everything to keep them out.
But then, something interesting occurred 17 games ago: John Wall returned to the lineup.
It may seem hyperbolic to say that the Kentucky product all by himself changed the culture of the team but that’s the exact truth. Here’s the simple breakdown:
- Record without Wall: 5-28
- Record with Wall: 10-7
The Wizards have looked sharper with their starting point guard now back into the fold and actually resemble a professional basketball team.
Keep in mind, Wall hasn’t exactly played terrific basketball, but rather he’s been himself so to speak and has played his decent brand of ball, and Washington is much better for it.
They run pick-and-rolls, post ups, break down defenders off the bounce for drive and kicks and get out in transition after forcing turnovers for some easy scores.
While Wall was sidelined, the players just had a lot of trouble doing these things and thus it resulted in their inability to consistently produce points.
NBA.com’s advanced stats tool tells us that with Wall either sidelined or on the bench, the Wiz score 94.1 points per 100 possessions, which is easily the worst mark in the NBA. However, when the point guard joins his teammates on the floor, that figure gets a boost and stands at 100.7 points per 100 possessions, which would be just around the 19th best mark in the league.
The offense isn’t great with Wall on board, but it’s night and day in comparison to what it looked like without the former Wildcat. More importantly though, because Washington owns the sixth best defense in the league, they have a much better chance of winning ball games with an average or below average offense as opposed to the worst one in the Association.
If further validation is needed, just look at their current four-game win streak:
- February 4th: 98-90 win against Los Angeles Clippers
- February 6th: 106-96 win against New York Knicks
- February 8th: 89-74 win against Brooklyn Nets
- February 11th: 102-90 win at Milwaukee Bucks
Those four victories have all come against teams that will more than likely be part of the playoff picture come April.
The sample size is obviously incredibly small, but through 17 games with John Wall, Washington looks like a team that would be playing for a playoff spot if projected over a full season. Their winning percentage of .563 would have put them just above the Atlanta Hawks (.560 winning percentage) in the Eastern Conference standings.
In other words, these Wizards can play.
Read about the Wizards
Statistical support provided by NBA.com.
