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Category → Analysis

March 28th, 2013

Pistons miss fourth straight post-season, their longest playoff drought in 30 years

With the Milwaukee Bucks’ win over the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, the Pistons have been officially eliminated from the playoff race. That makes four straight seasons without reaching the post-season, Detroit’s longest drought since missing the playoffs each season between 1977-78 and 1982-83.

Few expected the Pistons to make the playoffs this year, though most of us hoped they’d at least contend. Unfortunately, a lack of progression from young players, poor coaching, too few minutes for Andre Drummond, a trade that unbalanced the roster and other factors have given the Pistons an even worse winning percentage than either of the previous two seasons.

The good news is the Pistons will keep their first-round draft pick rather than sending it to the Charlotte Bobcats, but the stakes are higher next season, when it’s just top-eight protected.

Missing the playoffs this season will probably help the Pistons in the long run. Next season, that probably won’t be the case.

By Dan Feldman • Posted in Analysis • 26 Comments
March 27th, 2013

Detroit Pistons haven’t won home game in last 42 days

The Pistons beat the Wizards, 96-85, Feb. 13. Greg Monroe had 16 points and 18 rebounds. Jose Calderon scored 24 points, and Will Bynum added 20 points. Lawrence Frank even got an A- grade for the game.

It’s been 42 days since that win, Detroit’s last home victory.

The Pistons have four chances to break the skid before the season ends – Raptors on Friday, Bulls on April 7, Bobcats on April 12, 76ers on April 15 – but the damage has already been done.

This stat isn’t significant in a basketball sense, because it’s a little fluky. Eleven of the Pistons’ 18 games since the Washington win have come on the road, so they haven’t had as many chances to win at home.

But it is significant in terms of fan morale, especially the fans who buy tickets and attend games. That is a long and depressing time to go without seeing their team win.

Going 42 days without a home victory is the NBA’s longest such streak this season – get ready for this blog’s most-used words this season – other than the Bobcats. Even if the Pistons lose their remaining home games, they still won’t catch Charlotte, which went 66 days between home wins during November, December and January.

By Dan Feldman • Posted in Analysis • 47 Comments
March 24th, 2013

Piston of the Week: Charlie Villanueva

Piston of the Week (3/17/2013 – 3/23/2013): Greg Monroe Charlie Villanueva

8.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, one smug fourth quarter barrage while shooting 39 percent from 3-point range. 

I actively tried to pick someone new this week. I gave Rodney Stuckey a hard look after a solid week last week, but he laid a pair of eggs before playing well against the Bobcats. Jose Calderon was solid, but he also left a game with the flu, likely caught by being exposed to the toxicity of a 10-game losing streak.

Hell, there was even a part of me that thought it’s worth giving the award to Charlie Villanueva because he was the one who keyed the team to its first win since February of 1994.

So I did.

With my apologies to Greg Monroe, who put together a super strong week and has apparently found a knack for cooking the Miami Heat, your Piston of the Week is Charlie Villanueva.

He wasn’t the best, nor was he even good for most of the week, but Charlie V did something that no Pistons player has been able to do in the last 10 games — step up and be “the guy” when the team needs it in the fourth.

Admittedly, there haven’t been that many chances for the Pistons to take control of a game during the streak of terrible, but Charlie V scored 17 frickin’ points in the fourth quarter on Saturday.

He showed more life than he has in a month(s) and was, however dirty it sounds to say this, the best player on the floor during the Pistons’ fourth-quarter comeback. He’s a streaky player, we know that, but when those wild 3-pointers are going down, his whole game opens up.

It also helps that he’s a match-up nightmare for the Bobcats, who tried to throw a mix of post and perimeter defenders on him. However, those defenders didn’t really defend Charlie at all in the fourth quarter — which allowed for him to be the recipient of  multiple drive-and-kick passes for open 3-pointers.

Seriously, he had a SportsCenter-worthy dunk and the game winner on a layup that came, gasp, off a HUSTLE PLAY. That’s what kind of game it was, Charlie V was scoring from everywhere, posterizing dudes and hustling to make winning plays.

Yeah, it was the Bobcats, and yeah, lottery balls say it’s probably better for this team to lose every game, but there isn’t always value in losing — it really messes with a team’s psyche. There’s a weird balance between rooting to win and rooting for draft position, and tonight, Charlie V trolled the entire “tank!” community by playing arguably the best fourth quarter of any Pistons player this season.

There’s something admirable about a guy, struggling and buried on the bench in the midst of a 10-game losing streak, being able to come in and do something good. It shows that someone on the team hasn’t totally quit — which, unfortunately, is something that appears to have happened at times during the streak.

So, cheers to Charlie V, occasionally earning his big contract pennies at a time, even in the worst of times!

 

Past Winners

By Brady Fredericksen • Posted in Analysis • 70 Comments
March 22nd, 2013

Brandon Knight’s defense has been very, very overlooked

Me at the Detroit Free Press:

On Feb. 7, the Pistons ranked 19th in the NBA by allowing 103.5 points per 100 possessions.

Since Feb. 8, the Pistons have allowed 112.1 points per 100 possessions, a mark that ranks last in the league.

So what changed?

Anyone who watches games will say Andre Drummond. Sentimentalists who recall his four all-defensive second-team selections will say Tayshaun Prince.

And they’d both be right.

But Drummond and Prince are only part of the story. The Pistons’ most overlooked defender this season has been Brandon Knight, who has missed six games and played just four minutes in another due to injury during this "run."

The Pistons allow 8.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when Knight is on the court than when he’s off — easily the best mark on the team.

Corey Maggette is next closest, at 4.8 (skewed because he played more than 80% of his minutes with Drummond), followed by Jose Calderon, at 4.0 (less relevant, because since he joined the team, Detroit’s defense has been terrible with or without him) and then by Austin Daye, at 3.2 (no longer on the team).

The closest reasonable comparison is Greg Monroe, who checks in at 3.1. Knight just dominates this stat.

Of course, on/off numbers can be heavily influenced by lineups, both by the team and the opponent. But individually, Knight’s defense also checks out.

On the plays mySynergySports, a video scouting service, lists Knight as the primary defender, he allows 0.84 points per play, which ranks 131st in the league. Considering 460 players have played in the NBA this season and that this is a per-play rank rather than a stat in which Knight benefits from playing big minutes or often defending fellow starters, 131st is very good.

Not only is Knight defending well, he’s markedly improved from last season, when he ranked 370th. In five of the six play types as categorized by Synergy that he’s eligible for, Knight’s rank has improved:

• Isolation (295th to 97th)

• Pick-and-roll ballhandler (167th to 106th)

• Post-up (220th to 92nd)

• Spot-up (303rd to 194th)

• Handoff (42nd to 9th)

By Dan Feldman • Posted in Analysis • 10 Comments
March 19th, 2013

Detroit Pistons bottoming out isn’t quite Bobcats bad

The Detroit Pistons have lost their last nine games by an average score of 108-90. In that span, they have the NBA’s 27th-best offense and worst defense. They’ve been outscored by 19.3 points per 100 possessions, easily the league’s worst mark.

But it could be worse.

The Pistons’ nine-game skid is the NBA’s most lopsided this season – and in words used way too often on this blog – other than the Bobcats.

In their last nine games, the Pistons the Pistons have been outscored by 158 points, the fifth-worst nine-game stretch this season. As part of a 10-game losing streak, the Bobcats had overlapping nine-game stretches where they were outscored by 163, 166, 198 and 209 points.

When they play the Miami Heat on Friday, the Pistons have a chance to claim the league’s most lopsided 10-game stretch of the season. Detroit just needs to fall to Miami by 57 points. It might be a longshot, but these Pistons just might have what it takes.

By Dan Feldman • Posted in Analysis • 28 Comments
March 18th, 2013

Piston of the Week: Rodney Stuckey

Piston of the Week (3/10/13 – 3/16/13): Rodney Stuckey

19.0 points, 3.3 assists and 2.8 rebounds on 51.9% shooting from the field.

Well, this one sure is out of left field.

Last week, Brady said to watch out a lot of Piston of the Week awards to go to Jose Calderon and Greg Monroe. And then the following week, BAM! Rodney Stuckey goes off for 7, 15, 22 and a season-high 32 points. He didn’t have a bad game this week. Even though he scored only seven points Sunday, he played only 23 minutes in the Pistons’ blowout loss to the Clippers. No one played well in that game, really.

But Even in a week where a team goes 0-4, there are some bright spots.

Stuckey averaged 34 minutes this week due to Brandon Knight’s injury, and Stuckey has done a more than adequate job filling up that role. After playing only 23 minutes against the Clippers before Knight was injured, Stuckey played 35, 38 and 40 minutes in the next three, and he played really well.

Here’s his shot chart from the past week (via NBA.com/stats).

Stuckey didn’t shoot great on 3-pointers, but he was great on short-range shots. 

The Pistons even scored 16.2 more points per 100 possessions when Stuckey was on the court than when he was off.

Stuckey has been a work in progress over the year, switching from point guard to shooting guard and starter to reserve. This week, he’s shown that he can be a very effective shooting guard off the bench, providing good relief once Knight returns.

Past Winners

By Jameson Draper • Posted in Analysis • 16 Comments
March 15th, 2013

3-on-3: Finishing the Pistons’ season

Modeled after ESPN’s 5-on-5, three of us will answer three questions about a Pistons-related topic. Please add your responses in the comments.

1. Should the Pistons tank the rest of this season?

Dan Feldman: I’m not sure they have much choice. I think we can agree the Pistons weren’t tanking through the end of January, and they won just 17 of 46 games at that point. How much worse can it get? Well, a little, so here’s where I draw the line. I’m against telling players, directly or indirectly, not to give full effort. I’m for playing it safe on injuries and giving younger players the benefit of the doubt when it comes to earning playing time.

Patrick Hayes: Fortunately or unfortunately, I don’t think they have the option of choosing. With the injuries piling up down the stretch, the Pistons are precisely what a bad team should be to close out a season. They are playing hard (for the most part), but don’t have nearly enough talent healthy right now to compete with most teams in the league. If Khris Middleton continues to get big minutes and Kim English and Viacheslav Kravtsov get some playing time to see if the Pistons have anything at all with those three players, the end of the season will be a success. They’ll lose, they’ll get a look at some young prospects and they’ll have more lottery combinations. Win-win-win.

Jameson Draper: Yes. It’s not like they really can’t tank right now, either, due to the losses of Andre Drummond and Brandon Knight. When not making the playoff push, there’s no reason to try to win games. Give young players playing time (they’ve been doing a nice job with that lately – Khris Middleton played 25 minutes on Monday night), and see how they will help the team next season. It’s really the only reasonable thing to do.

2. Should the Pistons play Andre Drummond again this year?

Dan Feldman: If he’s fully, 100 percent, no-doubt-about-it healthy. Otherwise, no. It would be great for Drummond to get more experience, ensure his All-Rookie team bid and give the Pistons a chance to evaluate him playing with Greg Monroe. But Drummond can’t elevate his status within the Pistons’ rebuilding effort. He can only hurt it with further injury. The Pistons already know Drummond is fundamental going forwrard, and they can operate with that in mind without seeing him play another minute this season.

Patrick Hayes: No. For what? When healthy, the biggest, most noticeable flaw in Drummond’s game was simply conditioning. As much as the Pistons needed him to assume a larger role, and as much as his production suggested he deserved one, there were plenty of instances showing that Drummond was just not physically ready to handle big minutes on a game-to-game basis. So start his offseason early, get him on an intense training regimen and have him prepare to be a starter next season.

Jameson Draper: Please no. The Pistons aren’t making the playoffs. Why bring back the most promising player too early? I mean, if he’s completely healed, then give him limited playing time (because in-game action is the best rehab assignment), but if not, they shouldn’t play him. It’s not like it would sell any more tickets at this point.

3. How should the Pistons handle Brandon Knight down the stretch?

Dan Feldman: Knight is a bit different than Drummond, because the Pistons don’t know exactly what they have in Knight. If Knight can become a competent scoring starting scoring guard, there’s no need to spend a lot of money to get one in free agency. If Knight can’t fill that role, the Pistons should pounce on someone like O.J. Mayo. So, seeing more of Knight could change a $40 million (give or take decision). Still, Knight has played more than anyone in his draft class save Chandler Parsons. Maybe it’s time to let Knight rest a bit. Like Drummond, Knight shouldn’t rush back, but the level of caution – especially given a guard’s durability relative to a center – needn’t be quite as high.

Patrick Hayes: The side of me that wants to see the Pistons finally land a top three pick in the draft would emphatically favor shutting Knight down the rest of the way, and if his injury is serious enough that his return could cause any lingering damage at all, I would definitely advocate that approach. But if Knight gets healthy enough to play again, he’s in a bit of a different situation than Drummond. While he’s still certainly in the Pistons’ long-term plans, the actual position he’s best-suited to play is still up in the air. He had some good moments playing shooting guard prior to his injury, and it would be nice to see him get the opportunity to build on those before the season ends. Any opportunity the Pistons have to give Knight big minutes at shooting guard again this season should be taken advantage of so that the team can better evaluate its needs heading into the draft and free agency.

Jameson Draper: I’m not as adamant about not playing Knight as I am Drummond, but if he’s not healthy, why play him? This is pretty much the same response as the last question for me. Even if he’s not as good as Drummond, Knight is still one of the Pistons’ best players. Why risk him being re-injured? The team shouldn’t be trying to win games anyway, so Knight shouldn’t get too much playing time. I say shut him down, but it’s not too big of a deal if he returns this season.

By Jameson Draper • Posted in Analysis • 13 Comments
March 15th, 2013

Greg Monroe’s defense will be fine

My column today for the Detroit Free Press:

Rather than chastising Monroe for not putting in proper effort defensively, isn’t it possible that he’s playing hard, but just lacks the awareness and instincts required for great defense?

Expecting Monroe or any player to make up for a skillset they don’t possess by just trying harder isn’t necessarily fair, particularly for a player like Monroe who, by all accounts, works very hard at his game.

Monroe is far from useless defensively. Although his feet aren’t as quick as other bigs in the league, he does have quick hands and is proficient at stripping the ball from opposing players as they go up for shots (something Karl Malone was the king of). Monroe also averages 1.2 steals per game for his career and 1.3 per game this season, very good for a big man. This season, the only bigs who get more steals per game than Monroe are DeMarcus Cousins, Blake Griffin, Joakim Noah and LeBron James (depending on whether you consider him a power forward or small forward at this point).

The solution to Monroe’s defensive woes is an easy one — pairing him with a healthy Andre Drummond for big minutes next season.

Andre Drummond has made far more useless defensive players — Charlie Villanueva, Will Bynum and Austin Daye — seem competent when playing with them this season. He’ll do wonders for Greg Monroe‘s defense next season. Nothing to worry about here.

By Patrick Hayes • Posted in Analysis • 101 Comments
March 14th, 2013

Former Piston Cliff Robinson thinks the Pistons are on the right track

I wrote a piece for SB Nation about the evolution of the ‘stretch four’ position in the NBA, and in doing it, I had the opportunity to talk to two of my all-time favorite former Pistons, Cliff Robinson and Terry Mills. Definitely check out the piece if you’re interested in the history of big man shooters, but I also snuck in a couple Pistons-related questions that I’ll write about below.

Just trying to get a feel for how closely former NBA player Cliff Robinson follows the NBA these days, I asked him what teams or players he enjoys watching now that he’s retired. Unprompted, he had the Pistons near the top of his list, right after he mentioned Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Miami Heat.

“If the Pistons can keep Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond and Brandon Knight together, they have a chance to be very good,” Robinson said.

The response surprised me because, although he played two seasons in Detroit, that represented only a fraction of his 18 seasons in the league. Plus, the Pistons traded him the offseason before they won a championship and the team they shipped Robinson to, Golden State, was the only team Robinson played for in those 18 seasons in the league that did not make the NBA Playoffs. So, on the surface, there’s no particular reason for Robinson to have any special affinity for the Pistons that would cause him to seek them out and watch them regularly. But upon closer inspection, Robinson, like Drummond and Charlie Villanueva, played at UConn. He also played three seasons for the New Jersey Nets and Lawrence Frank, so connections do still exist even if Robinson doesn’t necessarily have roots in the Detroit area still.

Like many fans of the team, Robinson is intrigued by the diversity Monroe and Drummond can bring to a frontcourt, with Monroe’s craftiness, passing and high-post ability and Drummond’s natural gifts of moving without the basketball and finishing anything tossed in the general vicinity of the rim with a dunk. The key, though, is whether or not the Pistons can keep those players together long enough to see them reach their peaks together. Monroe could enter restricted free agency in 2014, and the market for skilled big men dictates that he’ll be expensive, as will Drummond if he continues to develop at such a torrid pace.

“That’s the challenge in the NBA — keeping guys together long enough for them to develop trust and chemistry,” said Robinson, who currently works with the Pro Basketball Alumni Association and mentioned that he’d be interested in getting into coaching someday.

Terry Mills, a Robinson predecessor in the role of Pistons floor-stretching big man, is already involved in coaching. Mills is an assistant coach at Henry Ford Community College, one of many very good junior college programs in Michigan (Seriously … follow your local JUCO hoops team. Flint’s Mott Community College and Grand Rapids Community College are in the national tournament this month, and Henry Ford, Wayne County, Oakland, Glen Oaks and Lansing community colleges were all formidable teams who were ranked nationally at different points this season).

Unlike Robinson, who has had basketball success in stops all over the country, Mills’ is a Michigan man through and through. He was a local star at perennial high school power Romulus, a standout on a national championship team at the University of Michigan and, after a brief stop in New Jersey to start his career, played the best basketball of his NBA career as a Detroit Piston. He’s also part of a great basketball family in Detroit — his uncle is former Piston John Long and cousin is another former Piston, Grant Long.

Mills also talked about the evolution of the modern game, particularly how the Miami Heat often surround LeBron James and Dwyane Wade with shooters to keep the lane un-clogged for those guys to get inside and finish. Mills played a prominent role in an early version of that type of offense with the Pistons.

“I really started using that shot (more) when Doug Collins took over as coach of the Pistons, he wanted to use me as more of a specialist in pick and rolls with Grant Hill,” Mills said. “It was a win-win for us, because a big guy switching on Grant Hill was a big advantage (for Hill).”

Although Mills had a solid, long NBA career, now that he’s a coach, he says players are getting to the age where they weren’t old enough to have watched him play.

“Guys on my team were just born when I was finishing HS or college,” he said.

Mills reinvented himself as a NBA player to find a niche and succeed, and he says he imparts that knowledge to players he coaches now

“I tell kids that now, work on every aspect of your game,” Mills said. “Don’t limit yourself. To be of value to division I programs or to NBA or professional teams, they are looking for versatility, not just offensively but also being able to defend different positions too.”

(Also, check out the guest post on Mills/Robinson I did for Detroit Bad Boys today as well)

By Patrick Hayes • Posted in Analysis, Pistons History • 9 Comments
March 9th, 2013

Piston of the Week: Jose Calderon

Piston of the Week (3/3/2013 – 3/8/2013): Jose Calderon

10.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 8.3 assists while shooting 46 percent from the field.

Alright, if you were looking for variety I apologize ahead of time. Until we (hopefully) see Andre Drummond back this season, it’s going to be a revolving door of Greg Monroe and Jose Calderon.

Despite another bad week of shortcoming and blowouts, Calderon showed why veteran point guards who can produce no matter what the situation surrounding them is are coveted. I might have made that description of point guards up, but think about it — if you’re a contender and all you need right now is a point guard, is Calderon near the top of your list?

This is assuming you’re looking at comparable point guards — no one is taking Calderon over Chris Paul. Say I gave you these three mystery players, and you need one guy who’s going to be able to produce no matter the surroundings he’s tossed into. With this, you’re not taking into account age or contact, just pure ability based, of course, on the numbers provided; who do you take?

  1. Player A: 17.4 points (43 percent shooting), 7.4 assists, 2.9 turnovers and 3.1 rebounds per 36 minutes.
  2. Player B: 12.9 points (49 percent shooting), 8.9 assists, 1.9 turnovers and 3.6 rebounds per 36 minutes.
  3. Player C: 17.5 points (45 percent shooting), 8.1 assists, 3.7 turnovers and 3.9 rebounds per 36 minutes.

Those are just the basic stats, though. Let’s take it a little bit further, maybe include defense, which everyone reading this will nod their head in agreement as I mention Calderon’s Swiss-cheese ways on that end of the court.

Just as a tip, Ortg is a players offensive rating, which is an estimate of points produced per 100 possessions, Drtg is a defensive rating, an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions and DEF, which is HoopData’s way of tracking steals+blocks+charges per game.

  1. Player A: Ortg of 114, Drtg of 108 and DEF of 1.69.
  2. Player B: Ortg of 126, Drtg of 109 and DEF of 1.33.
  3. Player C: Ortg of 100, Drtg of 106 and DEF of 2.18.

So, with that in mind, defense is basically a push for Player A and Player B. Player C plays slightly better defense when you take into account the tangible stats of steals and blocks while combing charges, too. In terms of overall offensive production from a volume and efficiency standpoint, Player B trumps Player A and Player C, while being an equally below average defender along with Player A.

Now, here’s the part that’s going to blow your mind. Player A is Brooklyn Nets’ point guard Deron Williams, easily the most ballyhooed of the trio. Also the least efficient and sub-par player on both sides of the ball. He’s also being paid $19 million a season through 2016.

Then there’s Player C. If you had to pick between these three guys, knowing who they are, this is probably the guy you take. It’s Philadelphia point guard Jrue Holiday. Turnovers are the fourth-year guard’s biggest problem right now, but he’s an improving defender. The most startling thing with him is that, despite being top 10 in assists, his offensive rating is a mere 100, which is the average.

As you’ve probably guessed, Player B is Calderon. His defense is bad, we know that, but it’s no worse than Williams and is only slightly worse than Holiday. That’s per-36 minutes, though, and when you go back to his numbers at the minutes he actually plays, his defense drops and the Drtg goes up to 111. His offense, though, is completely off the charts — even with the anemic supporting cast he’s got in Detroit.

That’s one thing he’s always going to bring to the table, an ability to set guys up and make perimeter shots while limiting turnovers.

Regardless, it shows that Calderon might not match up when it comes to names or hype, but he’s as solid as any point guard in the NBA at certain things. There are very few elite players who can be like LeBron James and excel in every aspect, but when you look at the group of guys who are still very good despite losing situations, Calderon has to be near the top of that list.

I suppose you could just file this post away in the folder with all of the other “Joe Dumars needs to re-sign Calderon this offseason” posts that have been published here in the month that Calderon has been around.

*Data was collected using Hoopdata and Basketball Reference. 

Past Winners

By Brady Fredericksen • Posted in Analysis • 9 Comments
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