Category → Analysis
Is Greg Monroe actually a bad defensive rebounder?
Every time a Piston player grabs a defensive rebound, that helps Detroit’s defensive-rebounding percentage. On a simple level, the Pistons who individually grab the highest percentage of available defensive rebounds help Detroit’s defensive-rebounding percent the most.
Greg Monroe is grabbing 24.1 percent of available defensive rebounds this season (first on the team), and he pulled in 20.4 percent last year (third on the team). So, it stands to reason the Pistons rebound defensively better when he’s on the court.
But that’s not the case.
The Pistons get 71.4 percent of defensive rebounds when he’s on the floor, 13th on the team. Last year those numbers were 71.8 and ninth.
That’s obviously problematic, because it doesn’t matter whether Monroe or another Piston grabs a rebound. Either way, the Pistons get the ball.
For the most part, in the last three years, other Pistons’ individual rebounding rates have correlated with the team’s rebounding rates while they’re on the floor.
*Starting guards to have higher team defensive rebounding rates than their individual rates would suggest. I would guess that’s due to playing mostly with starting bigs, who are the team’s best rebounders.
So why do the Pistons defensively rebound so much worse when Monroe, one of their best defensive rebounders is on the floor? Here are five theories:
1. Monroe mostly grabs rebounds that would have gone to his teammates rather than securing the rebounds that would have gone to the opponent. After watching many Monroe rebounds on MySynergySports, I don’t think that’s the case.
2. Monroe’s floormates expect him to get all the rebounds and don’t compete as hard for rebounds when he’s on the court. (This is a theory Patrick floated.) I also don’t think this is the case, considering Monroe’s minutes have come with many different players in the last two years, and the results have been the same. But it’s possible there’s a greater tendency to defer to the team’s top rebounder.
3. The Pistons’ scheme is overly reliant on Monroe grabbing defensive rebounds when he’s on the court, but is more balanced when he’s not. For the same reason I don’t buy No. 2, I don’t buy this one. John Kuester and Lawrence Frank, for the most part, run different schemes.
4. Monroe doesn’t tip many loose rebounds to teammates. Either he collects the ball, or he doesn’t. When he comes close but can’t easily secure it, he still goes for getting it himself rather than helping a teammate get it.
5. Monroe does a great job positioning himself for rebounds and getting in front of his man, but he’s not the best at blocking out. That helps him get a lot of rebounds, but when they don’t go where he is, he’s not doing much to keep the opponent from beating his teammates to the ball.
Of course, there’s a sixth possibility: This is all statistical noise, and the numbers are unfairly influenced by who Monroe plays with and which opponents he’s happened to play against. That’s certainly possible.
But for the rest of the season, I’ll be watching Monroe’s defensive rebounding more closely.
Statistical support for this story from NBA.com.
Trayvon Martin and the Pistons
WASHINGTON – On a superficial level, no Piston resembles Trayvon Martin more than Brandon Knight – Detroit’s youngest player and only native Floridian.
“Stuff happens like this all the time,” Knight said. “It’s just one of those situations where it’s being brought to light. It’s something that the media did catch wind of, but stuff like this happens a lot.
“Like I can tell you, just being from Florida, stuff like that, it happens all the time. But it’s just one of the cases where we finally do realize what’s going on. It’s just blowing up now, but it happened a long time ago.
I told Knight how shocked I was to find out, after first reading about Martin, how long ago his death occurred (follow the link for background on the case, if you’re unfamiliar).
“That just shows you, it just really depends on who catches wind of it and who starts to talk about it,” Knight said. “… It happens a lot more, but it doesn’t always get out to the media.
“It’s just the world we live in today. … I’m not sure if we can just stop it. That’s just how the world is.”
Knight noted that key to trying to prevent incidents like this was raising awareness, but he wasn’t sure what steps he would take right now. The Miami Heat took the lead – before and during their game at Detroit – in using their NBA platform to bring attention to Martin’s death.
“That boy was unarmed and had stuff going for him in life, so it’s sad,” Walker Russell said. “Something has to happen to this guy who did it, I think personally. It’s good to see that more and more people are getting involved with it – especially a team like the Miami Heat, who have so many All-Stars. “
Since then, a couple Pistons have followed suit.
Damien Wilkins set his Twitter picture to an image of Martin, and Charlie Villanueva posted a photo of himself in a hoodie with the caption “Supporting Trayvon Martin.” To Wilkins, supporting Martin was both obvious and important for many NBA players.
“I want justice for him, so keeping the awareness alive,” Wilkins said. “… You’ve got a young black kid that seemed to die an innocent death, murdered in cold blood. The killer can just walk into Chick-fil-A right now.”
Ben Wallace, the future lawyer, took a more measured tone.
“Sometimes, when people try to help and get too involved or get too caught up, they end up hurting the situation,” Wallace said. “So, you’ve got one guy that was trying to help, trying too protect, look out for the community and whatever and might have just made a bad judgment decision. Not only does it affect him and the kid’s family, it affects all of us.”
Wallace said, beyond the social impact, he’s paid particular interest to legal issues of the incident.
“It’s going to be tough to call,” Wallace said. “But eventually, it will have a way of working itself out. Something will show up here. Something will show up here.”
Vernon Macklin’s impending free agency won’t boost minutes, but maybe it should
WASHINGTON – Vernon Macklin has passed every public test put in front him.
In the NBA, he’s averaging 11.8 points on 55 percent shooting and 7.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.
In the D-League, he’s averaging 16.6 points on 53 percent shooting and 17.2 rebounds per game.
Of course, it’s difficult to know what those numbers mean. Mackling has played just 79 NBA minutes, and his D-League performances have come against, well, D-League competition.
But when the rookie returns to the Pistons, he should receive a rotation spot for one major reason: His contract expires after the season, and Detroit should getter a better idea of what it has in Macklin before he hits free agency.
Unsurprisingly, Lawrence Frank disagrees.
“No, I never – contract’s set aside,” Frank said. “Pay no mind to that.
“He just has to continue to work. We have good guys in front of him, and sometimes it’s just a matter of the other guys maybe playing a little bit ahead of him. At some point, he’ll get an opportunity. He just has to be ready when his number’s called.”
There’s no right answer here, just my opinion. I understand why Frank hasn’t played Macklin more. Macklin hasn’t shown he’s better than Greg Monroe, Jason Maxiell, Jonas Jerebko or Ben Wallace. Frank has seen Macklin in practice, so unlike I do, he has much more information to evaluate.
But in this season that surely won’t end in the playoffs, the Pistons owe it to themselves to determine whether they should re-sign Macklin. If that means not basing the rotation completely on merit – less than ideal solution, so be it.
This is based one major caveat: Macklin has consistently shown a good attitude. As far as I can see – which again, isn’t nearly nearly as wide a view as Frank’s view – Macklin has. Walker Russell, a D-Leaguer before the Pistons called him up this season, has played with others sent down from NBA teams. In general, those players with NBA rights usually don’t bring the same attitude as those who don’t.
“When you don’t have it, I think you may be a little more hungry,” Russell said. “But he showed that a guy with it, with his contract, a guaranteed contract, that you can still go down there and be hungry and have a purpose. Like I said, he went down there and showed how to be a professional.”
Russell and Macklin spoke Sunday.
“He was happy,” Russell said. “He said, ‘I’m glad I went down here and experienced it.’ It was an eye-opener for him, so I think it humbled him now a little bit, too.”
“So far, he’s handling it like the best pro that I know, especially that got sent down.”
Many have paid attention to Macklin developing his specific facets of his game in Fort Wayne, but getting sent down might have a broader impact on his ability to play in the NBA.
“I told him it’s a good thing to go down there, get some run, get some bump, get into some basketball shape,” Russell said, “because practice isn’t playing in a game.”
“The more he got into shape, the more you see the numbers producing.”
Maybe improving his conditioning will be enough to push Macklin into the Pistons’ rotation. If he’s close, any edge could make a difference.
“Sometimes it’s not about, can you play or not?” Russell said. “It’s a numbers game. He just got caught up in a numbers game. But I think, definitely, Vernon can be a presence in the NBA, obviously in the D-League.”
Unfortunately, that D-League definitiveness doesn’t mean much. Only the NBA uncertainty does.
Ideally, Macklin returns from Fort Wayne playing so well, Frank can’t keep him off the floor. But if that doesn’t happen, Detroit is in a bind.
There’s no easy way for Frank to tell Monroe, Maxiell, Jerebko and/or Wallace their minutes have been cut to get Macklin playing time and maintain credibility that he’ll base playing time on merit. But there’s also no easy way to evaluate Macklin if he doesn’t see more NBA minutes.
Unless the Pistons are already certain they plan to re-sign Macklin and confident they can keep him at the price they’re willing to pay, I’d rather err on the sign of giving the apparently hard-working rookie with a positive attitude regular minutes.
Austin Daye’s weight loss in Russia might be a big reason for brutal season
WASHINGTON – Austin Daye said, if he could do it again, he probably wouldn’t have played in Russia during the NBA lockout.
At the time, it made plenty of sense. There was no guarantee the NBA would have a season, and the money was good.
But Daye ran into a difficulty he never anticipated.
“Things just tasted kind of weird,” Daye said. “… Even fast food tasted different.”
His teammates helped when they could, and Daye found some Chinese-like dishes with chicken and rice that he could handle. But the process wasn’t easy.
“I was on my own,” Daye said. “I was definitely on my own.”
Then, when he caught a “flu bug” that caused an upset stomach for two to three weeks shortly after returning.
In all, he lost about 10 pounds and dropped to 200 pounds. It wasn’t until between 1.5 and 2 months ago that Daye returned to where he started.
“I don’t think it’s an excuse,” Daye said. “It’s not hindering my whole game. It’s just hindering parts of it.”
Daye specifically cited finishing inside and post defense as the area that gave him the most trouble while his weight was down.
“I’m always able to hold my own in the post,” Daye said. “Not too many guys post me up, because I’m pretty crafty down there.”
The numbers back him up. Daye allowed .76 points per post up last season, according to MySynergySports, easily his best defensive play. That’s up to .78 this year, but with just nine plays, that’s hardly a reliable sample.
Daye’s field-goal percentage at the rim (58) ranks between his first two seasons, but he’s taking just 16 percent of his shots at the rim – well below his rookie (26) and sophomore (21) years.
And that gets to the big letdown: Daye’s mental game. For most of the season, he didn’t feel strong, and it showed.
I don’t know whether Daye has a future as an NBA rotation player. Although e showed positive signs during his first two seasons, he never proved himself as capable, and he’s completely regressed this year.
But here’s the good news: Daye will never play in Russia before an NBA season again. This situation was unique, and although it basically sabotaged his season, it won’t be repeated.
It’s disappointing Daye wasted so much time just getting back to square one physically when he could have been progressing, but what can you do?
I’m willing to call Daye’s season a wash and see what he can do next year.
Ben Wallace makes small steps toward law school
WASHINGTON – Ben Wallace will pick up his law-school planning once the season ends and he has a chance to reflect on his career. Until he does that, he’s not even sure when he wants to enroll. But he’s already figured out two small details:
He wants to practice criminal law, and he wants to attend law school somewhere in Virginia, his offseason home.
For now, though, he’s still playing, still impressing.
“It’s unbelievable,” Lawrence Frank said. “Ben amazes me in the sense that the guy, at his age, to be able to play so hard every night – I hope our young guys really appreciate what he does every day, because this guy’s been doing it for 16 years. He treats every day the same way, consummate professional.”
But even though Wallace, who holds a criminal justice degree from Virginia Union, is still focused mainly on basketball, he’s still set on attending law school.
“Oh, yeah,” Wallace said enthusiastically. “No question.”
Ben Gordon’s 45-point game was one of the, if not the, most shocking ever
Since the 1985-86 season,* 106 players have produced 457 45-point games. The most recent, of course, was Ben Gordon’s 45-point outburst against the Nuggets on Wednesday.
*As far back as Basketball-Reference’s single-game records go
Gordon’s night drew some national attention, but because Gordon was once a high scorer who already scored 48 points in a game and landed in the 40s or high 30s several other times, nobody went wild. To many, Gordon was just another volume scorer doing what volume scorers sometimes do.
But I don’t think most NBA observers have realized how wide the gulf is between how Gordon once scored and how he scores now. Gordon is no longer a serious scoring threat – and that just makes his 45-point game all the more astonishing.
The average 45-point game came from someone who averaged 27.08 points per game that season. Gordon averages less than half that (12.46 points per game). At the moment, that’s the second-lowest season average for someone who scored 45 points in a game in the sample:
For his 53-point outburst, Tony Delk became somewhat of a folk hero. Although I understand Gordon’s big games with Chicago and huge contract with Detroit will prevent him from getting similar recognition, at this point, his 45-point game might be even more unlikely than Delk reaching the level (though, Delk scoring an extra eight points certainly adds to the mystique of that game).
Because the Pistons’ season isn’t over, Gordon’s 45-point game carries more weight on his scoring average than the other players’ big games do on theirs, and in the shortened season, that will still be somewhat true at year’s end.
The Pistons have 20 games remaining. If Gordon plays in all those and scores 238 or fewer points – an average of 11.9 points per game – he’ll pass Delk. Before Wednesday, Gordon was averaging 11.5 points per game.
Maybe Wednesday was the turning point of Gordon’s Pistons tenure, though I doubt it. Maybe it was a complete aberration, which I expect. We’ll know soon enough.
Either way, Gordon’s 45-point game should receive greater recognition for the incredible spectacle it was.
Pistons would have benefitted from a trade, despite reports to the contrary
Keith Langlois of Pistons.com:
The Pistons didn’t fit the profile of a team likely to make noise at the trade deadline. They aren’t hellbent on making a playoff run – they aren’t in that position just yet – so they weren’t about to dangle draft picks or underutilized young players for veteran talent. They aren’t on the downhill side of a long stretch of contention – they’re two-plus seasons past that point – so they aren’t bloated with veterans who hold obvious appeal to teams eager for a grab at the golden ring.
Vincent Goodwill of The Detroit News:
The teams who made moves — most notably the Lakers, Spurs and Clippers — were trying to set themselves up for a title run. The Wizards traded young pieces (Flint’s JaVale McGee and Nick Young), while the Portland Trail Blazers fired their coach, Nate McMillan, and released Greg Oden and a few other players in the name of "starting from scratch."
The Pistons don’t fit any of those descriptions
Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press:
And who needs dramatic trades with the way the Pistons have been playing lately?
That dreadful 4-20 start seems like a distant memory after the Pistons’ 124-112 victory Wednesday night at Sacramento, behind a combined 95 points from Stuckey, Monroe and Tayshaun Prince. They are 12-7 since the bad start and are currently only three games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with 23 games remaining.
Do you know which teams fit the profile of a team that would look to make a trade yesterday? All of them. All of the teams could have benefited from the right trade yesterday.
Different teams should have pursued different types of trades, but there’s isn’t a single team that would have been better off standing pat for the sake of standing pat – the Pistons most definitely included.
Of course, standing pat because a team didn’t find a desirable offer is completely different. Patrick and I won’t criticize the Pistons for turning down offers unknown to us, but to suggest the Pistons weren’t the type of team to make a trade is absurd.
I don’t know whether Joe Dumars shared those three writers’ attitudes, but I would be absolutely shocked if he did.
Update: He didn’t. David Mayo of MLive:
Dumars said the Pistons’ recovery from a 4-20 start, to their 16-27 record entering tonight’s game against the Phoenix Suns, was not a consideration in trade talks.
“Two totally separate issues, because even if the team was not playing as well as it’s playing right now, you still don’t want to sit there and make a bad deal,” he said. “Now, does it make it easier that the team was playing well? Absolutely. But at the end of the day, it still doesn’t change the criteria that you have.
“At that point, the team is over here, deal-making is over here, and you keep them separate. And it’s important to keep them separate in that sense, because you don’t want to get swayed because you’re having a nice run, then make a bad deal. It doesn’t make sense.”
Pistons disappointingly, frustratingly and possibly correctly let trade deadline pass – again
I wanted the Pistons to make a trade. We all did.
After 976 days – a span filled mostly with losses and zero playoff games – who wouldn’t? Joe Dumars?
Get real.
Dumars isn’t stupid. Even his most staunch opponents, at least among those with any shred of rationality, must realize nobody thinks this team is a finished product. The Pistons, as Dumars surely knows, need to upgrade their players, and he clearly tried to improve the Pistons’ outlook – but the they’re short on tradable assets. Making a trade for the sake of making a trade would have been satisfying today, but unless it actually helped the team in the long run, nobody would care. Nor should anyone.
The Pistons’ most meaningful steps forward will come from the draft, where nearly every team rebuilds. A trade today would not change that.
That doesn’t absolve Dumars, of course. He signed these players to the burdensome contracts that make them difficult to trade and didn’t’ seem prepared to pursue other team’s free agents after the lockout (but few teams quickly understood the realities of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement in the small window between the lockout ending and free agency beginning, causing most teams to take a conservative approach).
If the Pistons had tradable assets, like milk, they went bad as the franchise sat stagnant during its sale. Now, Dumars is stuck with a curdled roster. Outside Detroit’s major building blocks, which Pistons would other teams clamor for? My guess: nobody.
Grading the trade deadline ranges from nearly impossible to impossible – especially for the Pistons this year, when there was barely even a trade rumor. Maybe Dumars passed on a deal that he should have made. I have no idea, and likely, neither do you.
So, I’ll just do the only thing I can do: wait for June 28. The NBA draft – to everyone’s chagrin – has become the one day a year the Pistons make upgrades. But it would be the franchise’s most meaningful day for improvements, regardless, and if they keep getting their picks right, eventually the roster will have more desirable players.
Then, the trade deadline might be a little more eventful for the Pistons.
Days since each NBA team has made a trade (scroll way, way down for Pistons)
3-on-3: Trading Jason Maxiell
Modeled after ESPN’s 5-on-5, Patrick and I will answer three questions about a Pistons-related topic. We’re going to use 3-on-3s to assess the tradability of each Piston leading up to the March 15 trade deadline.
For each 3-on-3, we’ll be joined by a guest contributor. Today, that’s Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers and Detroit Bad Boys.
Please add your responses in the comment.
1. How motivated are the Pistons to trade Jason Maxiell?
Dan Feldman: Maxiell might be the Pistons most tradable asset, given how strong he’s come on lately. I hope they’re at least talking to teams about him. If Maxiell could fetch a high second-round pick from a team that could absorb him with cap space or a trade exception or send back an expiring contract, I’d think long and hard about that.
Patrick Hayes: They would probably move him, even though his play has been one of the few bright spots this season. Maxiell isn’t a long-term answer as a starting power forward, but he’s returned to form as an energy player and rebounder. His contract isn’t so onerous that they have to get rid of him, but he’s also getting back to the point where a team might give up a modest asset to add him to its frontcourt for playoff depth.
Ben Gulker: I wouldn’t think he’s at the top of the list, but certainly Joe Dumars would move him if given the right opportunity. However, with Charlie Villanueva emerging as a prime candidate for the amnesty clause and Ben Wallace retiring at the end of the season, moving Maxiell would create an even bigger hole in an already too-thin frontcourt rotation.
2. How motivated are other teams to trade for Jason Maxiell?
Dan Feldman: Teams could always use another big man, Maxiell has probably passed the point of being overpaid. But owed $5 million next year, he’s definitely not a big value. In this economy, the luxury-tax hit for teams looking at Maxiell might be too much to bear.
Patrick Hayes: It depends whether they’ve noticed what he’s done this season. Maxiell is coming off of two straight years of decline, something he admitted was his own fault for not keeping himself in shape. If other teams remember that Maxiell, rather than the solid rotation player he’s been this season, his market won’t be as strong. If teams have noticed what a motivated and in-shape Maxiell can bring to the table, there might be some interest.
Ben Gulker: After a very disappointing 2010-2011 season, Maxiell is playing like a rotation-caliber big once again this season. Assuming his production holds up, he’s not absurdly overpaid, and he’s a relatively short-term commitment even after he picks up his player option this summer.The problem is that Detroit wants young talent (especially young bigs), draft picks, and/or substantial salary relief coming back. I’m not convinced many teams are tempted enough by Maxiell’s recent resurgence to part with those types of assets.
3. How likely are the Pistons to trade Jason Maxiell?
Dan Feldman: I think Maxiell is one of the Pistons most likely to be traded. He would be serviceable to a contender right now, and the Pistons probably wouldn’t hate getting out of his contract. The biggest hangup is that Maxiell’s move into the starting lineup has help Lawrence Frank set a rotation that puts Detroit’s young players in the best position to succeed and grow. Would the Pistons risk messing that up?
Patrick Hayes: Not very. If the Pistons could get assets for him, they would trade him in a heartbeat. But if they can’t, they can simply keep him and hope to improve the quality of the non-Greg Monroe frontcourt position through the draft while keeping Maxiell as a capable, veteran backup.
Ben Gulker: Unlikely, but not impossible. Even though the Pistons are likely to add at least one more big man through the draft, they will need a player of Maxiell’s caliber to round out their frontcourt rotation – Monroe, Jerebko, and this summer’s lottery pick isn’t getting it done on its own (assuming Villanueva is amnestied). Perhaps they could add a veteran big via free agency or get lucky in the lottery, but that’s no guarantee. Maxiell is a known quality at a known cost playing an important role for this team. Moving him without a viable replacement may do more harm than good.
