Category → Analysis
Detroit Pistons #DraftDreams: Nerlens Noel
Discuss Draft Dreams on Twitter using the #DraftDreams hashtag.
Info
- Measurables: 6-foot-11, 215 pounds, freshman center from the University of Kentucky.
- Key Stats: 10.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.3 steals and 4.4 blocks per game; shot 59 percent from the field.
- Projected: Top-5 pick.
Random Fact
Nerlen’s Noel is probably most known for his shot-blocking acumen and tearing his ACL in a national TV loss to Florida mid-way through the season.
What he’s also known for is eraser-top haircut. The dude’s hair rivals Kid from Kid ‘n Play, and when he announced his decision to attend the University of Kentucky last season, he of course did it in the most “look at me” way ever done with hair. Via Deadspin:
Yes, he shaved the UK logo into his head. There’s no joke to make because that is too perfect.
Fits with the Pistons because …
He’s a really good basketball player. The Pistons may have a developing core group of young frontcourt players, but they still aren’t good enough to pick for need and not value. They should not forgo drafting the best prospect in this draft just because he doesn’t fill an immediate need.
Noel doesn’t have a polished offensive game, but at 19, he already has an NBA-ready skill in shot blocking. He’s one of the best pure shot blockers to come out in recent years, perhaps even better than Anthony Davis last year.
The difference between Noel and Davis is on the offensive end. Both are mighty thin (Noel is 215 pounds), but Davis has some semblance of a face-up game. Noel’s got very little. He improved as the season went on, and had he not been forced out of action early, he was only going to get better.
Perhaps he even can serve as a trade-igniter for the anti-Greg Monroe crowd. But I digress.
Doesn’t fit with the Pistons because …
He’s still recovering from the torn ACL, and Pistons.com’s Keith Langlois recently reported that Noel hopes to be back ready to go by Christmas. The knee injury shouldn’t scare teams away because he’s a 19-year-old who is ahead of schedule on his rehab.
The Pistons need a wing or point guard much more than another big man, even if Noel is just too good to pass up. There are major questions how Noel would play with Andre Drummond, considering both are so similar and, at this point, limited. Offensively, neither has range or the ability to handle the ball, and they might just clog the paint and prevent each other from the lobs they’re so great at finishing. Defensively, both could be elite rim protectors, but if they’re just duplicating that skill, it could leave a void in defending outside the paint.
From the Experts
Noel’s season ended on Feb. 12 when he tore his left ACL. However, the injury has done little to hurt his draft stock. Noel has been atop our Big Board all year with the exception of a brief slip to No. 2 after the injury. He has great size and athletic ability, and he proved to be one of the hardest-working players at Kentucky this season. Although his offensive game is a work in progress, he has as much upside as anyone in the draft. We currently project him as the No. 1 player on our board and he goes No. 1 in most mock draft scenarios.
Any discussion about Noel’s potential as a NBA prospect should start with his phenomenal physical attributes. Measured at 6-10 without shoes, with a 7-4 wingspan and exceptional athletic ability, Noel is a rare specimen. He runs the floor like a guard, is extremely nimble and quick, and has pogo stick leaping ability. This allows him to cover ground unbelievably well both vertically and horizontally, which helps him impact the game in numerous ways. It’s safe to say that, should he make a full recovery from his injury as expected, he’ll be one of the most athletic big men in the NBA.
What is the best thing Noel does for his team?
Glenn Logan (follow his blog on Twitter @ASeaOfBlue) covers the University of Kentucky for A Sea of Blue, SB Nation’s Kentucky blog:
When Kentucky fans think of Nerlens Noel, one image will forever be galvanized in our brains — the image of Noel running 94 feet to block a shot in a game that was almost surely lost while most of his teammates barely made it past half court, only to be injured when he landed awkwardly. What most of us forget is that he actually did block the shot. That’s the kind of competitive determination that defines Noel, and the lucky NBA team that gets him will never regret the pick.
Yes, Noel is extremely raw. He isn’t very good at the game of basketball yet, but he is an athletic marvel, perhaps the quickest 6’10" player to ever enter the NBA draft. Defensively, he needs very little work to have an immediate impact. Almost everyone knows about his prodigious shot-blocking, but what most people don’t know is that Noel blocks shots equally well with either hand, an extremely rare skill that is almost absent from any level of basketball. It matters — a lot. He also averaged over two steals per game, something almost never seen in combination with great shot-blocking. Offensively, he’ll take some time to develop, so a team needing immediate low block scoring or a face-up game might want to look elsewhere.
Finally, Noel is a genuinely good person who deeply involved in the community. He loves the game of basketball and is completely coachable at any level. He has a few potential negatives with his body type from a sports business standpoint, but from a personal standpoint, any team will be lucky to have him in their locker room. I cannot recommend Noel highly enough, and the value of his intangibles, though overshadowed by his astonishing athletic gifts, are almost reason enough to draft him by themselves.
On film
Nate McMillan not the defensive coach he’s cracked up to be
To see how much a difference pace can make, here’s how McMillan’s teams ranked in points allowed per game/points allowed per possession:
2000-01 SuperSonics: 24th/24th*
2001-02 SuperSonics: 12th/17th
2002-03 SuperSonics: 6th/17th
2003-04 SuperSonics: 24th/27th
2004-05 SuperSonics: 13th/27th
2005-06 Trail Blazers: 18th/28th
2006-07 Trail Blazers: 14th/26th
2007-08 Trail Blazers: 8th/17th
2008-09 Trail Blazers: 4th/13th
2009-10 Trail Blazers: 3rd/15th
2010-11 Trail Blazers: 7th/14th
2011-12 Trail Blazers: 18th/23rd**
And his teams usually perform well offensively. After all, if his defenses do poorly, there has to be some reason his teams win more often than not.
There’s plenty of variation in rankings for McMillan’s teams offensively (using points scored per possession) — 10th, 5th, 19th, 3rd, 2nd, 30th, 20th, 14th, 1st, 7th, 10th, 11th — but they certainly skew to the positive.
Detroit Pistons #DraftDreams: Trey Burke
Welcome to the fourth annual Detroit Pistons #DraftDreams series (see years 1, 2 and 3 in the archives). Discuss Draft Dreams on Twitter using the #DraftDreams hashtag. I’m getting a bit of a late start, but thanks to some help this year (DraftDreams had previously been a solo effort) from Brady Fredericksen, Jameson Draper and Dan Feldman, we should be able to get through a collection of first and second round prospects over the next few weeks while we try to figure out who is going to coach this soon-to-be future playoff team (seriously you guys … don’t you DARE make Joe Dumars fire another coach … he’ll totally do it).
The annual disclaimer — I don’t fancy myself a college basketball expert. In fact, it’s kind of torture to watch referees call a charge whenever someone falls down (someone needs to get Stern to fix flopping in the college game), less talented players (cough * Aaron Craft * cough) become stars because they are great at clutching and grabbing more physically gifted players to slow them down and rules designed to encourage players to inefficiently shoot contested long twos. I’m off on a tangent again. Anyway, the college game is inherently frustrating to me, but I still love it, I still watch it and I’ve made a bit of a pattern of starting this series off each year with my favorite player in the draft (DeMarcus Cousins, Darius Morris and Draymond Green in the previous three years). This year, that player is unquestionably Trey Burke, and that’s coming from someone whose allegiances primarily are in East Lansing.
Info
- Measurables: 6-foot-0, 190 pounds, sophomore point GOD from Michigan
- Key Stats: 18.6 points, 6.7 assists, 1.6 steals per game; shot 46 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3-point range; Naismith Player of the Year
- Projected: Top 10
Random Fact
During his freshman season, Burke had just had back-to-back solid if unspectacular games against known basketball powerhouses Towson and Western Illinois. This caused baseball Hall of Fame voter, worst blog in America pontificator and local radio conch-haver Pat Caputo to suggest on the air that (paraphrasing slightly) Burke was the next Chris Paul.
It was typical Caputoperbole that I should’ve ignored, but it struck me as insanely irritating at the time. Paul is probably the best point guard since Magic Johnson and, if injuries/the curse of Donald Sterling don’t interrupt his career, he’s going to be one of the all-time greats. Comparing a relatively under-recruited college player to Paul after a couple of games against irrelevant competition is reckless, even for a guy who once called the Detroit Tigers’ best offensive player their biggest offensive problem. It was a disservice to Burke, a young player trying to carve out his own identity at a basketball program in desperate need of a ‘savior’ type of player, to saddle him with those types of expectations so early. Comparisons like that unfairly ratchet up pressure on young players, particularly at a high profile school like Michigan. It also did Paul a disservice. Because Paul toiled away in New Orleans much of his career, his brilliance is still a bit under-appreciated by the masses. Suggesting some unproven, relatively unknown player in college is capable of being at his level was an insult to Paul and all of his accomplishments. Media types do that sort of star-to-random player comparison all the time and it never ceases to be infuriating — it makes it seem like guys who have one in a million talent have skillsets that can easily be replicated.
It’s weird the memories that cloud judgments. I carried that dumb, throwaway segment on a radio station I only listen to for unintentional comedic purposes from a host whose opinions I loathe with me for a long time. As Burke continuously improved, but as he single-handedly, at times, dragged Michigan back to relevance, I was slow to embrace it simply because of that stupid soundbite I caught in passing years ago. I could spend this space extolling Burke’s many virtues, talking about how much fun he has been to watch the past two seasons and crediting him for not only making Michigan basketball important again but also re-igniting the Michigan-Michigan State basketball rivalry and making it the best in the country. But it’s easier to just simply say the greatest compliment I can pay to Burke is that he made Pat Caputo kind of right, or at the very least not completely nonsensical. I’m not sure anything he accomplished on the court is more remarkable than that.
Fits with the Pistons because …
The Pistons like Jose Calderon, and that’s fine. We know what Calderon is. Calderon is a good shooter, he takes good care of the ball and he’s a pass-first player who is perfect for a finishing machine like Andre Drummond. What we also know about Calderon is that he’s old. Even if the Pistons retain Calderon, they need to be thinking longer term at the point guard position than the guy who will play that spot for the next year or two. Burke is the best point guard option in this draft.
Burke and Paul had fairly similar college stats, although Paul shot better from 3-point range. Their games offensively are not completely similar, but the comparison between the two comes from their passing ability. Burke is a bit more of a shoot-first player than Paul, but that was also out of necessity. He was Michigan’s best scorer as well as distributor. On a NBA team like the Pistons with (hopefully) more offensive options who can create their own shot, I suspect we’ll see even more of Burke’s passing ability shine as a pro.
Burke and Paul have similar statures. Both are insanely quick though not the super athletic new-breed type of point guard who will go dunk on people. And both have incredible vision. Like Paul, Burke has shown an ability to see a play before it develops and to find teammates with passes that few other players could even envision, let alone make. On a team with a big as active as Drummond, pairing him with a passer like Burke would pay immediate dividends, even if Burke starts out as an understudy to Calderon.
Realistically, he won’t be as good as Paul, but the comparisons are no longer completely ridiculous, and that’s amazing progress for Burke. If he looks more like Ty Lawson than Paul as a pro, that’s still worth a lottery pick.
Doesn’t fit with the Pistons because …
The Pistons have needs at every position, but if Calderon is retained, they are thinnest at the wing spots. Brandon Knight, Rodney Stuckey, Kyle Singler and Jonas Jerebko are all capable of playing on the wings, but all can most aptly be described as ‘best suited for a reserve role’ (I also might describe Stuckey as ‘better suited for any roster except this one,’ but I digress). Assuming Calderon is retained, assuming Stuckey might be traded and assuming Knight is still around, adding Burke to the guard rotation would give the Pistons a small three-guard rotation. On top of that, if the Pistons sign a shooting guard in free agency, Knight will presumably get some of his minutes at the point guard spot, so using a lottery pick on Burke only to relegate him to third on the depth chart at point guard to start his career wouldn’t be the best use of resources.
Burke will never be confused with an elite defensive guard. That’s the biggest difference between he and Paul, who is nearly as elite defensively as he is offensively. The Pistons have desperately been trying to remake themselves in their old defense-first image, and Burke would be another questionable defender added to their mix of long-term prospects.
I do, however, think Burke has the feistiness (his floor-slapping to mock Keith Appling at Crisler Arena was one of my favorite moments of the season), quickness and 6-foot-5 wingspan to improve at that end of the court .
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the one thing Burke consistently did that drove me crazy — I hope he eliminates the contested step-back three when the clock is winding down late from his arsenal completely. No one in college basketball could stay in front of Burke, but he tended to rely on that shot too much.
From the Experts:
Although Burke doesn’t have great size or the athleticism of some of the other elite point guards in the NBA, he has an incredible basketball IQ, can really shoot, rarely turns the ball over and makes those around him better. He should go somewhere in the top seven and will be the first or second point guard off the board.
The engine behind the #1 offense in college basketball, Burke was arguably the best pick and roll point guard in the NCAA this season, able to put incredible pressure on the defense thanks to the tremendous balance he brings between scoring and facilitating for others. The fact that he can make shots from anywhere on the floor, find the open man instantaneously, or get to the rim makes him extremely difficult to game-plan against.
What is the best thing Trey Burke does for his team?
Zach Travis (follow him on Twitter @zach_travis and @maizenbrew) covers the University of Michigan for Maize N Brew, SB Nation’s Michigan blog. Be sure to check out his great profile on Burke for SB Nation too.
“The one thing that Trey Burke did for Michigan that was the most important was take control of the game when it was desperately needed. The Wolverines had talent both years, but there was never a consistent number two scorer or post presence through which to run the offense, and the team traded athleticism concerns Burke’s freshman year for experience concerns the next. Burke was the genesis of Michigan’s offensive output, but even then there would be stretches where the rest of the team would go cold leaving it up to Burke. He was very good at shifting from facilitator to scorer to try and carry the scoring burden for the rest of the team for minutes at a time, and his offensive game and penchant for pushing the ball was often enough to open up passes to get other players easy shots and back into a rhythm. He found ways to come up with important defensive stops and used tempo to throw the other team off and give Michigan an advantage. That isn’t to say that things always worked out or that Burke did not fall prey to forcing his shot or pulling up from deep early in the shot clock before trying to work through the offense, but sometimes John Beilein simply had to let Trey be Trey, for better or worse. The way that Trey Burke took over games was plainly obvious to everyone in the building. He could be quiet for long stretches, but when Trey Burke decided to take over there wasn’t a person watching that didn’t know it almost immediately.”
On Film:
Pistons shouldn’t limit themselves to coaching candidates like Nate McMillan
[The Pistons] hired Michael Curry, who had been an assistant coach only one year. When he failed, they were panned for hiring someone with so little experience.
Then they hired John Kuester, who had been an assistant many years. When he failed, they were panned for hiring someone with no NBA head coaching experience.
Then they hired Lawrence Frank, who had been an NBA head coach. When he failed, they were panned for hiring someone with a losing career record.
So where do they go from here? To an experienced NBA coach with a winning record, of course.
That leaves [Nate] McMillan, [Avery] Johnson, [Scott] Skiles and [Stan] Van Gundy. If McMillan — who surely will have other suitors — doesn’t work out, look for the Pistons to turn their attention to those other three.
The Pistons are looking for a coach to take over a team with a losing record, turn it into a winner and eventually guide it to a playoff-series victory. Just three Pistons coaches have done that since the franchise moved to Detroit: Rick Carlisle, Chuck Daly and Dick McGuire.
Carlisle was a Pacers assistant when the Pistons hired him.
Daly was a Philadelphia 76ers broadcaster with a career 9-32 head coaching record.
McGuire was still a Pistons player.
The lesson isn’t that a safe coaching hire is mistake. It’s that an expanded, imaginative search is important.
23 Pistons’ coaching candidates
Nate McMillan
The Pistons have recently tried a coach with NBA experience, Michael Curry. They’ve recently tried a coach with past success, Lawrence Frank.
Why not try for the best of both worlds?
Nate McMillan played in the league for more a decade and has turned around two franchises in pretty bleak times prior to his arrival. What he did in Seattle was good, but it was what he did in Portland that is really impressive. He dealt with tons of injuries (not including Greg Oden) and early character issues (Jailblazers holdovers), but he worked to rebuild and eventually turn it into a really fun and good team. Not to mention, he has experience working with older players in Seattle and younger ones in Portland, too.
-Brady Fredericksen
Jerry Sloan
Jerry Sloan has been out of the game for a fairly long time, but he is unquestionably a quality head coach. His teams have always been incredibly tough physically and mentally. Also, his teams have consistently executed quite well on offense as a product of his system. A little discipline and smarts could go a long way for the Pistons.
The criteria that could make his candidacy a little iffy: he is as old school as it gets. The younger players on the roster might encounter some issues with his hardnosed approach and fail to ingratiate themselves with him. This could potentially result in multiple DNP-CDs.
-J.M. Poulard
Kelvin Sampson
He was a possibility before Lawrence Frank, and there’s no reason to believe he isn’t one this time around. Sampson had his rough patches with the NCAA while he was coaching Indiana, but he was a pretty darn good coach while he was there – not to mention all the illegal stuff he did at Indiana is legal in the NBA.
Sampson’s been around the college game since Magic and Bird were battling for an NCAA title, and after spending the last four seasons learning the NBA game under Scott Skiles and Kevin McHale, he should probably be pretty well-schooled on the pro game now. It’s always risky to buy a college coach in a professional league, but Sampson could probably shouldn’t be pigeonholed as just a college coach anymore.
-Brady Fredericksen
David Fizdale
The hot new trend is to hire coaches who toiled in the video room to learn the game, and Fizdale, now a Heat assistant, did that. So did Erik Spoelstra. But so did John Kuester.
Fizdale helped LeBron James develop a post game, and that’s an instant draw to the coach. He’s recognized as one of the league’s up-and-comers, but he might have shown enough quite yet. Then again, a strong interview and a limited pool of candidates makes him an intriguing risk.
-Dan Feldman
Mike Budenholzer
Budenholzer may be a name unknown to many fans, but as a career assistant under Gregg Popovich, he’s learned from the best he could in that span. The Popovich coaching tree, which is actually a limb of the Larry Brown tree, includes active coaches like Jacque Vaughn, Mike Brown, Monty Williams, Vinny Del Negro, Avery Johnson and Doc Rivers.
His playing experience is limited to a high-scoring season spent in Denmark while simultaneously coaching the team’s youth affiliate. But seriously, 19 years under Popovich is something in itself. If you’re going to blindly take a coach from any coaching tree in the NBA, it’s Pop’s.
-Brady Fredericksen
Mike Malone
The Warriors assistant is the son of former Pistons assistant Brendan Malone, who served under Chuck Daly during the 1988-89 and 1989-90 championship seasons. The younger Malone has developed a reputation for instilling a no-nonsense defensive approach, and it’s only a matter of time until he becomes a head coach. Plus, the Warriors have been pretty good – both in record and player development – under Mark Jackson, and I really don’t want to credit Jackson for that. So, maybe that’s Malone’s influence.
-Dan Feldman
Brian Shaw
Brian Shaw is arguably one of the best assistant coaches in the NBA. The Lakers considered hiring him after Phil Jackson retired, but Mike Brown won the job instead. While he’s a great assistant coach and one of the main reasons Indiana’s defense is so good, Shaw very likely won’t join the Pistons. In fact, he turned down the Bobcats head coaching job because he wanted "to have a chance" to succeed. With the Pistons’ quick trigger for coaches, Shaw might not find this job desirable.
-Jameson Draper
Patrick Ewing
Ewing is well known for his role as a superstar on 90′s Knicks teams, but he’s been an assistant NBA coach for 10 years now, most notably as the Orlando Magic’s assistant coach for six years. He was a really big factor in developing Dwight Howard, who was, until this year, the best center in the league. Ewing becoming the Pistons head coach would be huge for Monroe and Drummond’s development and a lot of fun.
-Jameson Draper
Bill Laimbeer
Laimbeer’s WNBA success is undeniable, and for a moment, let’s pretend coaching in that league – which features a radically different power structure and playing style – is identical with coaching in the NBA. The big difference is NBA coaches make more money, and that draws a better pool of coaches. That means NBA coaches compete with the best coaches money can buy. WNBA coaches compete with less coachers. So, just because Laimbeer can outcoach his WNBA peers doesn’t mean he can necessarily outcoach NBA coaches.
In no way is this a knock on Laimbeer. It’s just an acknowledgement his résumé – which also features helping the Timberwolves to 15 and 17 wins as an assistant coach – shouldn’t simply mean he wins wherever he goes, because that sentiment lacks proper context.
-Dan Feldman
Stan Van Gundy
Unlike his TV-loving brother, Stan Van Gundy appears to be the more likely of the two brothers to return to an NBA bench soon. There are some reasons that might make the Pistons a good fit for him — notably Andre Drummond in a Dwight Howard-like role — but the rest of the roster (no great shooters) doesn’t really fit his coaching personality offensively.
Howard made a living out of impersonating him, but Van Gundy also isn’t afraid to get on a guy who isn’t performing. We’ve seen coaches in Detroit who were a little more laid back, to an extent, and perhaps a coach who will get on guys would help — or maybe they’d tune him out, too?
-Brady Fredericksen
Jeff Van Gundy
Well, we can start off with the reports Jeff Van Gundy apparently isn’t too fond of the current construction of this team:
"Detroit Pistons basketball slogan: When the going gets tough, we fire the coach," Van Gundy said. "It’s unbelievable. It’s unbelievable. You know what surprises me, Chris? These new owners in Detroit have to be exceedingly bright to have made as much money as they have. And to be duped again that your G.M. tells you that the roster is good and the coach is bad … what was the problem with Michael Curry? What was John Kuester? Now Lawrence. They run through coaches and they haven’t even begun to address their problem. They have very little talent and very little basketball character. You combine that, you’re going to be in a long rebuild.
"I’m just surprised that when everybody acknowledges it’s a player’s league – everybody would agree with that – then the most important player or person in any organization is the person that picks the players. But we don’t, as organizations, examine them. We just take the easy way out time and time again. You lose, the G.M. convinces the owner ‘We got good players. It’s the coach’s fault.’ We fire the coach; we bring a new coach in; we continue to lose. We fire that coach, saying that ‘We have better players.’ It just goes on and on. It’s typical and I can’t believe that the Detroit owners fell for it. I just can’t believe it."
Maybe Jeff Van Gundy, the smartest guy in the room on every NBA broadcast he’s ever done, has a strict idea of “basketball character.” I can see him thinking Rodney Stuckey and Charlie Villanueva have low basketball character, but most of the Pistons are basically young and naïve puppies. Van Gundy also built his reputation on hard-nosed defensive teams. At the Pistons’ current pace, they’re likely closer to being a good offensive team than a good defensive team, but it doesn’t look like he’s a likely candidate.
-Brady Fredericksen
Avery Johnson
Way back in 2009, before John Kuester and long before Lawrence Frank, Drew Sharp said the Pistons had a deal in place to sign Avery Johnson to a two-year contract. That deal was shot down by then-owner Karen Davidson, and so began the current dreadful stretch.
Fast forward to today, and it wouldn’t surprise me the least if Avery Johnson is one of the first guys Joe Dumars calls. He’s had success in the NBA as a player and coach, even though Brooklyn fired him. The question with Johnson is how would he handle coaching a mostly-young roster — something he’s never handled as a head coach.
-Brady Fredericksen
Mike Brown
The Pistons could use a head coach in the mold of Mike Brown. During his stints with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Lakers, he put a big emphasis on rebounding and defense. Considering the Pistons’ defensive shortcomings, Brown could potentially shore up that facet of the team. Granted, part of the issues can be attributed to the team’s youth, but Brown has proven that he can incorporate various types of players into his schemes.
-J.M. Poulard
Scott Skiles
Skiles, a former Michigan State player, resigned as the head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks earlier this season after four and a half seasons as head coach. He’s coached the Bucks, Bulls and Suns in the past 14 years. He’s made the playoffs in six of them, losing twice in the conference finals. Skiles was widely known as a hard-nosed coach (much like his play style), and a lot of people frown upon that. But in the end, Skiles wins more than he loses, and maybe the Pistons need some discipline. Lawrence Frank never seemed to fire the team up.
-Jameson Draper
Flip Saunders
In hindsight, Dumars might regret how quickly he fired previous coaches. Saunders was fired not because he wasn’t good enough to coach a team past the first round of the playoffs, but because he couldn’t coach a team to a championship. This team doesn’t have championship aspirations, and Saunders has been a good NBA coach. It would be a little awkward to return to a previous coach, but Saunders might be the most accomplished coach willing to take the job.
-Dan Feldman
Michael Curry
Another coach Dumars fired too quickly? Probably not, but many coaches improve in their second head job. Curry’s reputation, both among players and executives, is reportedly positive, and there’s a very high chance he’ll get another top gig, possibly as soon as next season.
Enough of the Pistons’ roster has turned over where re-hiring Curry wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. But the same general manager is in place, making this a near impossibility.
-Dan Feldman
Larry Brown
When the Pistons fired Rick Carlisle, who never won few than 50 games in Detroit, the logic was defended, because when you have a chance to hire Larry Brown, you do it. Well, once again, the Pistons probably have a chance to hire Brown, who’s coaching Southern Methodist University.
Brown’s fallout in Detroit mostly came with Bill Davidson, who’s no longer around. That doesn’t mean Brown didn’t also burn bridges with Pistons who are still with the franchise, but maybe Dumars is still fond of the Hall of Famer.
It’s extremely unlikely the Pistons could hire a better basketball mind than Brown. It’s also unlikely they could hire a bigger headache. At this point, the aggravation probably isn’t worth it.
-Dan Feldman
Doug Collins
Another ex-Pistons coach, Collins might be the least likely of the group listed here to become the Pistons’ next coach. Collins’ flame burns hot, but it doesn’t burn long, and that pattern is well-established throughout his career.
Coach three years, sit out six. Coach three years, sit out three. Coach two years, sit out seven.
Collins just coached three years with the 76ers. He’s not coming to Detroit now. This is his hibernation period.
-Dan Feldman
Phil Jackson
No. I mean, we could spell N-O out in a million ways, but there is literally zero chance that Phil Jackson is whistling to get Andre Drummond‘s attention from his special super-padded chair this season.
Phil’s basically got the keys to the car, and unless there’s a Hall of Famer waiting, he’s not driving. He can choose what he wants, where he wants to go, and how much power he’ll have there. To top it off, he’s going to cost an astronomical amount of money, like, $10-plus million a season. There’s no way Tom Gores go that route for a short-term option to lead a team that isn’t ready to win big.
-Brady Fredericksen
Isiah Thomas
Isiah is one of the legends of Detroit basketball, leading the Pistons to two titles as a player. The reality is, he’s never been successful in any other profession. He’s tried to make an impact as a coach or in the front, and it hasn’t worked out. He took a talented Pacers team in the early 2000s and made them mediocre. After that, he got another big opportunity with the Knicks. We all know how that worked out. Once he seemed to be completely out of a job, he got hired by lowly Florida International and drove them further into the ground. Thomas was a great player, but he’s an awful coach. The Pistons should not, and will not, hire him.
-Jameson Draper
Brad Stevens
Stevens should be the top choice of any NBA team looking to the college ranks, though that doesn’t necessarily make him a good candidate. College coaches haven’t translated well to the NBA lately, but Stevens – with his calm demeanor, thorough gameplans, attention to statistics and tactically sound defenses – is a better bet to buck the trend than anyone.
-Dan Feldman
Tom Izzo
I’m an Izzo fan boy and will always love him, but he’s not the right guy for the job. At Michigan State, he’s molded good college players into great college players. But the best coaches in the NBA don’t only mold players, they keep stars in check. Izzo doesn’t have enough experience doing that.
-Jameson Draper
John Beilein
If we’re going to mention Tom Izzo every time this job opens, shouldn’t Beilein come up, too? Moving past his small-time roots, Beilein has managed a roster with several future NBA players, shifted his style to use more ball screens and less zone defense and won a lot of out-scheming his peers. Beilein seems like a classic college coach, and I’m not sure he’d embrace the difficulties of being the NBA. But if he ever succeeds in the NBA, a lot of people would wonder why they didn’t see it coming.
-Dan Feldman
Pistons roundtable: Wildcard questions
The (somewhat) annual Pistons roundtable has returned. Each day this week, our panel of Pistons writers will answer a question about the Pistons – all in one place. Please add your answers in the comments.
Drew Sharp, Detroit Free Press
Did this season show Tom Gores is being patient, or will it push him to show his impatience?
Gores made his fortune by nurturing an investment and maximizing its value. That demands patience and following a plan. I look for him to demand a playoff appearance next season and, as a result, I expect the Pistons to act more aggressively this off-season. But not impulsively. They won’t throw money at a problem simply because they possess the means.
Mike Payne, Detroit Bad Boys
If Jose Calderon leaves the Pistons this off-season, how big a setback would that be for Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe?
It would be unfortunate, but not an irreplaceable loss. If Detroit can get ahold of Jarrett Jack’s agent before hitting the bargain bin and the trade market, I’ll feel better about the loss. Calderon should be looked at as a temporary solution anyway, and Detroit’s search for the next point guard should begin today, Calderon or not. Bonus points for avoiding all combo guards in the search.
Phil Fattore, Pistons 101
Which Detroit bench player has had the most encouraging close to the season?
Jonas Jerebko’s recent resurgence is impressive, but the most encouraging bench player has been Khris Middleton. Scoring at least 10 points five times across March and April, Middleton is proving to be an efficient bench scorer. With Will Bynum’s expiring contract leaving his future unknown, it’s comforting to know that Middleton is capable of performing at a high level.
Daniel Poarch, Life on Dumars
What have we learned from Brandon Knight‘s post-injury play?
It’s been a year Knight would likely prefer to forget, but while he struggled after his return from injury in March, he’s still shown he can score as well as flashes of potential facilitating the offense. We’re still looking at more questions than answers, however. Is he a shooting guard or a point guard? A starter or a bench option? They’re questions the Pistons need to answer.
Eric Stafford, Life on Dumars
Do you see any hope for Brandon Knight at point guard?
There’s a little hope, but not much. Whether there’s hope or not, I still think he’s better suited to play shooting guard. That way the Pistons can cut down on the number of decisions he has to make with the ball. In the end he might fit better as a 6th man combo guard off the bench.
Thom Powell, Life on Dumars
Who has a brighter future, Kyle Singler or Khris Middleton?
Middleton has such a small sample size of production that I’m a bit reticent to pick him, but I’ll do it anyway. I thought Kim English would be the 2nd rounder that would play his way into the rotation, but Middleton made the most of Detroit’s end-of-season tank-fest and finished strong. Singler hit the rookie wall hard in 2013 and never really recovered. It doesn’t help his case that he’s three years older than Middleton, either.
Natalie Sitto, Need4Sheed.com
Did you get any joy from Rasheed Wallace’s comeback season with the Knicks?
Do NBA players like tattoos? It was nice to see Sheed play the roll that he’s comfortable with in the past few seasons. Limited minutes, limited conditioning and hanging out behind the arc and knocking down three’s. It’s hard to live in a world without Rasheed Wallace screaming "ball don’t lie!"
Patrick Hayes, PistonPowered
Rank the NBA prospects who played college basketball this season in the state of Michigan, regardless of whether they’re entering this year’s draft.
1. Trey Burke – He’s probably not a Chris Paul caliber player, but he might be Ty Lawson
2. Mitch McGary – I’d take him over Cody Zeller right now
3. Gary Harris – He’ll probably stay another year, but at worst, he’s a likely three and D shooting guard in the NBA
4. Adreian Payne – Another guy likely staying, expect Payne, projected as a second rounder this year, to be a top 15 prospect next year
5. Glen Robinson III – I’d like to see more of him playing a more natural wing position (he’s played a lot of four at Michigan), but he’s a NBA athlete and he can hit the corner three. Those are enough to get him on the court for someone.
6. Ray McCallum – Don’t sleep on the University of Detroit point guard, who was a bigger prospect than Burke and Keith Appling in high school. He turned down high major offers to play for his dad (it remains to be seen if that decision benefits him in the long run), but he can certainly play and he’ll get draft attention next year.
J.M. Poulard, PistonPowered
What do the Pistons do on the court that is most difficult for opponents to gameplan against?
The Pistons’ athleticism on the offensive boards was simply a nightmare for opponents. It didn’t matter how, they always managed to stick their noses in there for put backs.
Jameson Draper, PistonPowered
Should the Pistons consider re-signing Jason Maxiell?
No. Maxiell is dead weight to this team and is not providing anything in any facet of the game. Detroit has enough young big men (Monroe, Drummond, Kravtsov, Jerebko) and could use the extra roster spot to sign someone better. Maxiell will be very cheap, but it’s still not worth it.
Brady Fredericksen, PistonPowered
What do you make of Rodney Stuckey‘s strong finish to the season?
Nothing. He’s done this in 2011, 2010 and 2009, too. Five years into his career, there’s no real explanation as to why he seems to get hot late, but the one thing that is clear is that he can’t sustain that pace during the parts of the season that actually matter.
Pistons gave Lawrence Frank quick hook, but not too quick
His NBA head-coaching career began extremely impressively. He guided his team to a few playoff berths. But his star faded when his team got off to a terrible start to the season, and he was fired.
Still, another team hired him as a head coach. At his next job, he posted back-to-back seasons with the equivalent of about 30 wins each. Again, his team faced a decision of how to handle his future.
The Detroit Pistons fired Lawrence Frank.
The Boston Celtics retained Doc Rivers.
In the previous 10 years, someone has coached two consecutive full seasons with the same team and posted a winning percentage equal to or worse than Frank’s with the Pistons 17 times. In a majority of those instances (10 of 17), the coach was retained.
Neither the above numbers nor the Rivers example mean the Pistons should have kept Frank. Every situation is different. They’re meant only to provide a little context to Frank’s résumé.
Lawrence Frank failed to inspire Pistons
Lawrence Frank likes to tell a joke about his youth basketball experience.
“I was like a bad Hollywood actor,” Frank will say. “I kept hearing ‘cut, cut, cut.’”
It’s easy to feel for Frank. It’s not his fault he was born into a small, unathletic body. His playing career ended early, not because he didn’t work hard enough or didn’t understand the game well enough, but because he lacked the physical skills necessary to compete. That’s unfortunate.
It’s also easy to feel for Frank when it comes to the Pistons teams he coached. It’s not his fault he had an abbreviated training camp before his first season, coached five rookies this year and had his second season interrupted by a trade that sent away Detroit’s top wing player and unbalanced the roster. His Pistons tenure ended early, not because he didn’t work hard enough or didn’t understand the game well enough, but because he lacked the players necessary to win big. That’s unfortunate.
But regardless of his excuses, justified or not, Frank once again failed to inspire the decision maker in charge of his future. And now Frank is cut once again, fired from what very well could be his last NBA head-coaching job.
Remedying a bigger flaw, developing a smaller one
Frank’s failure to inspire didn’t start with his ultimatum to Tom Gores. Despite his confidence at his opening press conference – “I look forward to working with you guys over the next several years” – Frank didn’t deliver on any grand goals.
Under Frank, the Pistons never looked like a team that believed it could accomplish big things. His teams have consistently succumbed under pressure, and in a very telling stat, the Pistons were 0-15 this season at Western Conference teams.
Winning during road trips is difficult. Unless the team believes it can win, it’s easy to fall to the temptations and traps of what can be a vacation.
To be fair, Frank missed four of those road games while tending to his ill wife. But in the games at Western Conference teams he coached, the Pistons were 0-11 and lost by more than 13 points per game.
In hindsight, the Pistons’ third game of the season, at the Lakers, was a particular letdown. We now know the Lakers were much more beatable than it appeared at the time, and a confident Pistons team could have competed with them. Instead, Detroit lost by 29 while playing like the Lakers were the unstoppable juggernaut most expected them to be.
Before the Pistons hired Frank, Charlie Villanueva said he wanted a coach who “played the game.” That wasn’t really Frank, and although that shouldn’t disqualify Frank or other similar coaches from landing top jobs, the perception probably hurt him, and I suspect that’s a big reason he failed to inspire.
In context of recent coaching firings, Frank’s problems are relatively minor. Frank halted the more serious problems that plagued the team under John Kuester and Michael Curry. The Pistons’ internal strife was limited, at least to the degree it spilled into the public.
Kuester and Curry failed to inspire the team, too. But their players responded by rebelling. Frank’s players responded by not playing up to their potential. That’s a big difference, but not one large enough to justify the Pistons keeping Frank.
The Andre Drummond issue
Even though Frank wasn’t an expert motivator, that didn’t mean he was doomed to failure. Every coach has flaws, and Frank had at least a chance to overcome his. But Frank didn’t properly deploy his biggest inspirational weapon:
Drummond was a revelation this season, a 19-year-old center with once-in-a-generation athleticism who might already be the Pistons’ best player. But he played just more than 20 minutes per game, eighth on the team, and spent most of the season backing up lackluster Jason Maxiell.
Many disagree about the importance of NBA coaches, but even those who think coaches are limited believe allocating playing time is important to a team’s success. In this regard, Frank failed brilliantly due to his use – or non-use – of Drummond alone.
Greg Monroe posted a better net rating (team’s offensive rating minus defensive rating when on the court) when he played with Drummond. So did Brandon Knight, Kyle Singler, Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Tayshaun Prince, Will Bynum and Charlie Villanueva.
This wasn’t a matter of Frank having to wildly compromise his values and adjust his rotations to play Drummond more. The Pistons performed better when Drummond played with each of the team’s eight most-used players. There wasn’t a bad combination in the mix.
Drummond being good obviously makes a difference, but it was more than that. Players surely wanted to play with someone who has Drummond’s youthful energy, someone whose ability to find dunk opportunities creates open look for them, someone whose athleticism can cover their defensive mistakes.
Simply, Drummond inspired – but Frank never took advantage, and that might be the biggest reason he won’t see a third season in Detroit.
The inspiration gap
When Frank was hired, I wrote:
To start, the roster is still a mess – too many shooting guards, not enough interior players, too many players who could use major minutes, not enough players who necessitate major minutes. That’s probably a multi-year fix, and I won’t lambaste Frank for flaws he inherits with this team. I hope, and think, the Pistons won’t, either.
But Frank must help the players progress. Nearly every Piston could reasonably be expected to play better than he has the last year or two. For the players to improve under Frank, he must first get them to buy in.
Frank is gone, because he didn’t inspire the players to progress. But, despite a mid-season trade that improved the Pistons’ outlook, the roster is still somewhat a mess. With significant cap space and a lottery pick at their the disposal, the Pistons will have an opportunity to fix it.
They’ll also haven an opportunity to upgrade their coach. But whether or not Joe Dumars is retained, do you trust this management team to pick the right one, especially considering Tom Gores preferred Frank when Dumars wanted Woodson?
Gores said he’s willing to spend, and now is the time to show it. Bill Laimbeer, Patrick Ewing or Kelvin Sampson – who each interviewed for the job when it was last open – might be the best replacement for Frank. But if the pool of candidates is that small again, the Pistons are too likely to repeat previous mistakes. If one of those three beats out coaches who will command more money like Stan Van Gundy, Jeff Van Gundy and Nat McMillan, that would help establish their worthiness. The field must be larger this time, and that will require Gores to not only be willing to pay Frank $4 million next season, but his next coach more than that.
Frankly, I’m not impressed with the Pistons for simply firing Frank. Gores gave a too-soon declaration the Pistons “better” make the playoffs, and Frank is paying the price. Frank was the wrong coach for the job, and considering what the Pistons knew, he deserved to be fired. But I’m not sure there was a right coach for the job given the top’s instance on winning now despite having a substandard roster.
Gores, and maybe Dumars, will have a chance to hire another coach, though I’m not certain they’ll tab the right one. If they don’t upgrade the roster or change the impatient culture of the organization, they definitely won’t.
Frank is gone. I’m still uninspired.
