Category → Analysis
Our NBA award votes
We voted for the TrueHoop Network Awards, and here are our complete ballots.
Most Valuable Player
Dan Feldman
1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Dwight Howard
5. Kevin Love
Patrick Hayes
1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kevin Durant
4. Tony Parker
5. Russell Westbrook
This award is basically LeBron James and everyone else. The only other player I seriously considered in my top five was Love. I probably went with Westbrook because of this.
Defensive Player of the Year
Dan Feldman
1. Tyson Chandler
2. Dwight Howard
3. Kevin Garnett
Patrick Hayes
1. LeBron James
2. Tyson Chandler
3. Andre Iguodala
I’m tired of the bias against perimeter players in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. I’m fine with Tyson Chandler winning, but LeBron James is the most impactful non-Dwight Howard defender in the league. He’s always in passing lanes, he can block shots and he can lockdown any of the three perimeter positions. Plus, he could probably guard most power forwards in the league effectively.
Rookie of the Year
Dan Feldman
1. Kyrie Irving
2. Ricky Rubio
3. Kenneth Faried
Patrick Hayes
1. Kyrie Irving
2. Ricky Rubio
3. Isaiah Thomas
Choosing who to pick third between Manimal and Thomas was one of the tougher choices on my ballot. Ultimately, I picked Thomas not only because he was very productive, but because of his draft position (last player picked) and the fact that the Kings’ backcourt is loaded with players with better pedigrees — Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, Marcus Thornton — in front of him, his path to earning minutes as a rookie was harder. He not only earned minutes, he was better than all those guys in front of him.
Sixth Man of the Year
Dan Feldman
1. James Harden
2. Jason Terry
3. Taj Gibson
Patrick Hayes
1. James Harden
2. Lou Williams
3. Thad Young
Seriously, there was no competition for this one. Harden was by far the best non-starter in the league. As for my other picks? Williams and Young were both integral parts in Philly’s surprising start to the season. I had a hard time picking just one of them, so I picked them both. I could easily flip-flop them between second and third though. I could argue Taj Gibson in that mix though too.
Most Improved Player
Dan Feldman
1. Jeremy Lin
2. Nikola Pekovic
3. Ersan Ilyasova
Patrick Hayes
1. James Harden
2. Nikola Pekovic
3. DeMarcus Cousins
Harden went from nice scorer off the bench to a legit ‘third’ for an Oklahoma City big three. Pekovic made the Darko Milicic signing easier to forget. I normally wouldn’t pick a player like Cousins, who should’ve improved anyway from year one to year two, but after Paul Westphal was fired, not only did Cousins production improve immensely, so did his demeanor. He also came into this season in much better shape. So he gets a Most Improved vote for his on and off court improvement.
Coach of the Year
Dan Feldman
1. Gregg Popovich
2. Tom Thibodeau
3. Frank Vogel
Patrick Hayes
1. Ty Corbin
2. Gregg Popovich
3. Tom Thibodeau
Corbin was my choice simply because so little was expected out of the Jazz this season. For them to get to the playoffs is pretty impressive, although since it appears a good percentage of his team might hate him, I might reconsider that vote in hindsight. Popovich is the best in the world and Thibodeau held together a team that dealt with catastrophic injuries. Either are worthy candidates.
Executive of the Year
Dan Feldman
1. Neil Olshey
2. Larry Bird
3. R.C. Buford
Everyone says teams don’t get equal returns when trading a superstar. Olshey took advantage of that.
Patrick Hayes
1. Neil Olshey
2. Masai Ujiri
3. R.C. Buford
You get one of the four or five legit franchise players in he league, you get this award. Olshey did so he does. Ujiri put together an insanely fun team, got out of Nene’s contract before injuries/age could make the return on it less, picked up Andre Miller for the gigantic Ray Felton and drafted one of the most productive players in the draft in Kenneth Faried. Buford always gets a spot in this top three by default.
Sportsmanship Award
Dan Feldman
1. Shane Battier
2. Jeremy Lin
3. Antawn Jamison
4. Luke Ridnour
5. Chris Paul
6. Jason Kidd
Maybe I’m biased and voted for the Michigander, but Battier seems like the type of guy who would never do this to someone.
Patrick Hayes
1. Jeremy Lin
2. Antawn Jamison
3. Luke Ridnour
4. Shane Battier
5. Chris Paul
6. Jason Kidd
Lin dealt with distractions that I can’t even fathom this season, and handled everything remarkably well.
Citizenship Award
Dan Feldman
1. LeBron James
LeBron and Dwyane Wade’s effort to raise awareness to Trayvon Martin’s death was commendable.
Patrick Hayes
1. LeBron James
What Feldman said.
All-NBA
Dan Feldman
First team
- G: Chris Paul
- G: Dwyane Wade
- F: LeBron James
- F: Kevin Durant
- C: Dwight Howard
Second team
- G: Tony Parker
- G: Russell Westbrook
- F: Kevin Love
- F: Blake Griffin
- C: Andrew Bynum
Third team
- G: Kobe Bryant
- G: Rajon Rondo
- F: Dirk Nowitzki
- F: Kevin Garnett
- C: Tyson Chandler
Slotting Griffin, Nowitzki, Garnett and a few other forwards was tough. All were very good, but none great.
Patrick Hayes
First team
- G: Chris Paul
- G: Tony Parker
- F: LeBron James
- F: Kevin Durant
- C: Dwight Howard
Second team
- G: Dwyane Wade
- G: Russell Westbrook
- F: Kevin Love
- F: Dirk Nowitzki
- C: Andrew Bynum
Third team
- G: Steve Nash
- G: Rajon Rondo
- F: LaMarcus Aldridge
- F: Kevin Garnett
- C: Tyson Chandler
Yeah, I left Kobe off. Sue me. Sorry, but I found Nash nearly dragging Phoenix to the playoffs more impressive than Kobe shooting almost the same number of shots per game as the two most efficient scorers on his team combined.
All-Defensive
Dan Feldman
First team
- Tyson Chandler
- Dwight Howard
- Kevin Garnett
- LeBron James
- Andre Iguodala
Second team
- Tony Allen
- Dwyane Wade
- Avery Bradley
- Josh Smith
- Joakim Noah
Shawn Marion just missed my cut, and on a different day, he would’ve made the second team.
Patrick Hayes
First team
- Tyson Chandler
- Dwight Howard
- Kevin Garnett
- LeBron James
- Andre Iguodala
Second team
- Tony Allen
- Luol Deng
- Rajon Rondo
- Chris Paul
- Josh Smith
Putting Allen and Rondo on the second team rather than the first was the hardest thing I had to do in these awards. There’s actually a large number of really good defensive players in the league right now. You could probably make a case for four guys off the the Bulls alone to make it.
All-Rookie
Dan Feldman
First team
- Kyrie Irving
- Ricky Rubio
- Kenneth Faried
- Kawhi Leonard
- Isaiah Thomas
Second team
- Iman Shumpert
- Klay Thompson
- Chandler Parsons
- MarShon Brooks
- Gustavo Ayon
I could’ve gone either way on Brooks and Brandon Knight, but right now, I wish I would’ve voted for Knight.
Patrick Hayes
First team
- Kyrie Irving
- Ricky Rubio
- Kenneth Faried
- Kawhi Leonard
- Isaiah Thomas
Second team
- Iman Shumpert
- Brandon Knight
- Chandler Parsons
- MarShon Brooks
- Klay Thompson
I agree with Dan. He should’ve voted for Knight.
Brandon Knight for All-Rookie team
Patrick has repeatedly complained about the Pistons not promoting their players – especially irritating considering how hard they sell their halftime acts. So, we’re doing something about it.
Though the Pistons are finishing a lousy season, they still have players who deserve at least consideration for post-season awards, and we’re going to tell you why. But because we don’t receive a paycheck from the Pistons, we’re not going to stop there like they would if they conducted this campaign themselves. We’re also going to evaluate whether the player actually deserves the honor.
Here’s our look at Brandon Knight for All-Rookie team.
Making the case
Patrick Hayes: I argued early in the year that if you pay too much attention to Knight’s stats, you’ll never be able to enjoy watching him play this season. So, for that reason, it would be silly for me to try and make an argument for him based on his advanced stats.
He’s probably near the bottom of the top 10 if I were to rank rookies based on their impact this season. His passing is still lagging behind, he hasn’t proven he can be a full-time point guard yet and, although he improved later in the season, he turns it over too often.
But I would also argue that no rookie other than maybe Kyrie Irving or Ricky Rubio was asked to do more this season than Knight. Knight came into the NBA clearly raw, clearly needing time to learn his position and clearly a notch below Irving and Rubio in his rookie point guard class. Knight was a backup for just over a week before an injury to Rodney Stuckey put him in the starting lineup.
Knight has had ups and downs all season, but he’s played hard, he’s had a few fantastic games, he’s cut down his turnovers from the beginning of the year when he was a turnover machine and he’s shot the three really well. Plus, he leads all rookies in minutes played and has been incredibly durable.
Dan Feldman: Knight shouldered a heavier burden this season than any rookie save Irving and Rubio. By far, he played the most minutes among rookies this season – 300 more than anyone else. That counts. When on the bench, other rookies weren’t helping their teams.
And Knight played hard for nearly all those minutes. His energy and hustle definitely provided indirect value for the Pistons.
Knight made 3-pointers at an impressive clip, and his passing greatly improved throughout the season. He played within in the game, and perhaps, that somewhat limited his stats. For the most part, Knight appeared to understand his limitations and didn’t force things, leaving more capable veterans to do the heavy lifting.
Honest assessment
Patrick Hayes: He’s definitely on the second team. No question in my mind. It’s hard to put him on the first team — I think Irving, Rubio, Kenneth Faried, MarShon Brooks and Isaiah Thomas are locks for the first team.
It’s not that the second team isn’t going to be competitive as Knight, Chandler Parsons, Kemba Walker, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson and Tristan Thompson all have legit claims.
I think Knight has been asked to do much more than most of those guys, though, and reasonably deserves to make it.
Dan Feldman: I sort of think Knight will make the All-Rookie second team, but that’s far from a given. I know I didn’t seriously consider him for the TrueHoop Network All-Rookie first team, and he didn’t make my second-team cut, either. I don’t think Knight as a second teamer would’ve been egregious, but to me, he wasn’t especially close.
Knight is promising, sharing many of the tools of a successful NBA player. But he wasn’t ready to bring them all together this year. All-Rookie teams honor the 10 best rookies, not the 10 most-promising rookies. Knight would probably make the latter list, but he’s a borderline candidate at best for the former.
He turned the ball over too much, didn’t defend nearly as well as his frame suggests he can and had a too-often one-dimensional offense.
That said, I suspect Knight make the actual All-Rookie second team. His scoring average ranks second among rookies, and unfortunately, that’s often too good an indicator for award voting.
Knight left Kentucky after one year, got drafted into a league headed for a lockout that shortened training camp and then was thrust into the starting lineup early in his career. For that, he got valuable experience and millions of dollars. The cost? my All-Rookie vote. I think Knight came out ahead.
My advice to Ben Wallace
I’ve never played professional sports, and I’ve never retired. So though I might not be the best source, here’s my advice to Ben Wallace:
Take your time.
Often, athletes are peppered with questions about retirement and hear from fans who selfishly want to remember their stars only at their peaks. Eventually, those constant hints of retirement infiltrate players’ decision-making, and before many know it, the choice is no longer truly theirs.
That’s what I think happened to Michael Jordan in 1999. All season, the Bulls were told they were on a final run. His last shot over Bryon Russell perfectly fit the narrative, and Jordan became convinced and retired. But his competitive spirit wasn’t broken, and his physical skills hadn’t significantly diminished. He could still play, and that’s why he didn’t stay retired, coming back with the Wizards.
So, Ben, take your time. Don’t succumb to that outside pressure to prematurely make your decision. You know better than anyone else whether you’ll still have the physical ability and mental will to play next season.
If you do – so long as your family supports it, which is way too personal for me to have any advice on – play.
Law school can wait. Basketball can’t.
I think it’s tremendous that you want to pursue a second career as a lawyer. If that enriches your life, that would be great in itself. I also think you have the potential to inspire many that there are other avenues once basketball dries up.
But the window of being able to play basketball professionally is small, and if you step away now, there’s a very likely chance it closes. If your mental will to play returns in a year, who knows if your physical ability will remain?
Selfishly, I hope you return. I love watching you play, and getting another year to do that would be a treat. But don’t do it for me. I’ve seen enough. Your nine great years with the Pistons is more than anything I could’ve asked for.
You already decided to retire once before, when the Cavaliers traded you to Phoenix. Even then, you admitted retiring had been on your mind for a while. I hope you don’t retire only because the thought of retirement has been stuck in your head for a while. If it’s the right time, that’s one thing. But don’t retire only because it seems like the logical and inevitable conclusion. That’s not an easy distinction to parse and will take a fair amount of introspection. So, I’ll reiterate my advice:
Take your time.
Rodney Stuckey for Most Improved Player
Patrick has repeatedly complained about the Pistons not promoting their players – especially irritating considering how hard they sell their halftime acts. So, we’re doing something about it.
Though the Pistons are finishing a lousy season, they still have players who deserve at least consideration for post-season awards, and we’re going to tell you why. But because we don’t receive a paycheck from the Pistons, we’re not going to stop there like they would if they conducted this campaign themselves. We’re also going to evaluate whether the player actually deserves the honor.
Here’s our look at Rodney Stuckey for Most Improved Player.
Making the case
Patrick Hayes: There should be an element of surprise to the Most Improved Player award, right? Well, it’s not that surprising that a healthy Andrew Bynum has blossomed with a more central role in the Lakers’ offense. It’s not surprising that young players like James Harden or Greg Monroe have rapidly improved.
Stuckey, though? His overall numbers won’t look much different from what he did early in his career, but after his early-season injury and before his late-season injury, he was one of the best guards in the league. In February and March, he shot 48 percent, got to the line seven times per game and averaged nearly 20 points per game. He continued to take good care of the ball and he established a career-best in 3-point shooting this year at 33 percent. He looked like he was making the leap, and typically, guys in their fifth year in the league don’t do that.
Dan Feldman: Stuckey signed late, missed preseason practices and started the season slowly. As a result, his numbers this season don’t jump off the page compared to previous years. But, when it comes to this award, should Stuckey really be penalized for that?
Stuckey’s approach has improved tremendously. He’s getting to the free-throw line and shooting 3-pointers better than ever before – two marks of the league’s most efficient perimeter players. Plus, he’s become a better teammate. Not everything shows up in the numbers.
Honest assessment
Patrick Hayes: Unfortunately, Stuckey picked up another nagging injury late in the season that killed any momentum he had for this award. It’s unfortunate, because if he could’ve closed as strong as his previous two months, he would’ve had an intriguing case. Instead, we’ll just have to hope that he gets himself fully healthy in the offseason and picks up next year where he left off in March.
Dan Feldman: Especially as it relates to his improved relationship with coaches and teammates, Stuckey is, at best, an unconventional candidate for Most Improved Player. But his poor start and awful finish – 19 total points in his last five games – has eliminated him from even discussion of the award.
Stuckey probably won’t get any votes, and that’s fair, but I at least wanted to acknowledge that he’s better than last year.
Pistons don’t tank
I wrote about the Pistons and tanking for TrueHoop:
The 2004 Pistons are the only modern-era team to have won a title without a significant contribution from a player it picked in the lottery (or a lottery pick it traded for on draft night).
From Joe Dumars down, the Pistons evidently can’t stomach the thought of losing, and certainly not for a draft pick. In 2010, Dumars told Dave Pemberton of the Oakland Press:“It is impossible to feel good about losing,” Dumars said. “I understand that maybe from a fan and media perspective, ‘Oh, just lose games.’ Your mind can’t even get around that. Even down the stretch when we were way out of it, you feel better leaving the arena after you won a game as opposed to losing a game because at that point you’re not looking at standings and trying to figure out where you are because you know what you have to go through a lottery anyway."
Dumars has brought in like-minded individuals: a coach and players who apparently hate losing just as much.
There’s certainly a reasonably case that he has made mistakes in assembling this the current roster. Refusing to tank might be another one of his strategic mistakes.
But it should be noted that the Pistons have denounced tanking — and backed it up with their actions. In playoff-less seasons, the Pistons finished with a 4-1 run last year and a 4-2 run the year before.
That takes us back to Wednesday. If the Pistons tanked in Atlanta — they deny it — it was an aberration that was quickly rectified.
Lawrence Frank for Coach of the Year
Patrick has repeatedly complained about the Pistons not promoting their players – especially irritating considering how hard they sell their halftime acts. So, we’re doing something about it.
Though the Pistons are finishing a lousy season, they still have players who deserve at least consideration for post-season awards, and we’re going to tell you why. But because we don’t receive a paycheck from the Pistons, we’re not going to stop there like they would if they conducted this campaign themselves. We’re also going to evaluate whether the player actually deserves the honor.
Here’s our look at Lawrence Frank for Coach of the Year.
Making the case
Patrick Hayes: Stop laughing. I’m serious, you – stop laughing.
No, we’re not writing this just because Dan Feldman’s ‘did they tank?’ post seemed to ruffle Frank’s feathers. Yes, I get that it’s somewhat ridiculous to suggest a coach of a 24-41 team deserves coach of the year consideration.
But think about what Frank was walking into here, arguably the worst locker room for a coach in the league, one where veteran players openly derided their previous coach behind closed doors and in the media and several players were involved in an alleged boycott of a shootaround. And all of that for a coach in John Kuester whom they supposedly respected. I’d hate to see what would’ve happened to a guy they didn’t respect.
Anyway, although Richard Hamilton was jettisoned post-lockout, Frank inherited some players who had issues with the coach last season. Tayshaun Prince and Rodney Stuckey both had disagreements with Kuester, and Austin Daye was one of the players benched after the Philly boycott.
After a disastrous start to the season, Frank has the Pistons just a game under .500 in their last 41 games, he’s established an ironclad rotation (something that was one of the players’ biggest complaints about Kuester) and, with a few exceptions, the team has played hard this season. As minimal as those things sound, they are all pretty big improvements over last year.
Dan Feldman: The award is called Coach of the Year, not the The NBA’s Best Coach. The question should be, who did the best coaching job this season? Spending previous years installing and perfecting a system shouldn’t count directly for this award. I’m not sure if that puts Frank ahead of the presumed front-runners, Gregg Popovich and Tom Thibodeau, but it gets him closer to the mix. Popovich, to a degree, is relying on his coaching and player development from years past, and Thibodeau did his heavy lifting last year.
After a 4-20 start, Frank has overseen a steadily improving defense and even had the Pistons on the verge of realistically contending for a playoff spot this season. Being on the verge of contending for the playoffs isn’t exactly a noteworthy accomplishment for most teams, but after their horrid start, it was pretty incredible for these Pistons.
Honest assessment
Patrick Hayes: OK, he has no chance.
There are things I’ve been unimpressed with – not finding out sooner what he has in Vernon Macklin, playing Prince too many minutes, not experimenting with Jonas Jerebko enough at small forward among them — but overall, Frank has done a reasonable job in his first year.
If the Pistons’ 4-20 start would’ve been even slightly less pathetic, and the Pistons would’ve challenged for a playoff spot this season. That’s not worth a big award or celebration, but it’s worthy of something I guess. A fist bump? A pat on the back? I don’t know. Give him something though.
Dan Feldman: No way.
Despite the Pistons’ aforementioned defensive improvement, they still rank 21st in the league in defensive rating. Frank shouldn’t get credit for Detroit being unprepared to start the season. Given the lockout, that wasn’t necessarily his fault, but he definitely doesn’t deserve credit. And the Pistons’ offense, surprisingly average last year, has completely fallen apart.
I tend to look at body of work over the whole season, and with a similar roster to last year, the Pistons will finish with a worse record if they lose their final game.
Frank hasn’t quite lived up to the standard I had for him when the Pistons hired him, but he’s done a satisfactory job this year. Satisfactory might be a big improvement from the John Kuester and Michael Curry eras, but that doesn’t mean Frank has stacked up with the NBA’s top coaches this year.
Pistons lottery odds: April 20, 2012
See odds for all teams at Basketball Prospectus.
Did the Pistons tank last night?
In my review of the Pistons’ 3932-point loss to the Hawks last night, I accused Detroit of tanking.
There’s dissent to that opinion. Vincent Goodwill of The Detroit News:
Three games in three nights? Giving some guys the night off? No, that’s not tanking #Pistons
Even without playing tonight, guys are playing three games in 5 nights, especially the older players…not tanking #Pistons
@Stareagle disagree because you wouldn’t win in Atl anyways. Trying it against Cleveland would’ve been more apt, esp since closer records
Defining tanking
I define tanking as: a team intentionally attempting to lower its chances of on-court success during the current season in order to achieve other gains.
Gregg Popovich resting his stars? Not tanking. He thinks that will make his team more effective, overall, throughout the season.
A playoff team purposefully losing to set up a favorable first-round playoff matchup? Not tanking. The team is trying to increase its on-court success in the more-significant playoffs.
A playoff team with its seed already determined resting its starters? Not tanking. The team is trying to increase its on-court success in the more-significant playoffs.
Applying to the Pistons against the Hawks
As defined above, motive is a big part of tanking, so I can’t prove that the Pistons tanked last night.
Lawrence Frank knows his goals for the game, and perhaps a few others do, too. I have no firsthand knowledge.
But sitting a couple of the team’s better players – Tayshaun Prince and Ben Wallace – during a back-to-back-to-back in order to maximize total wins does not seem like a move Frank would make. He sat Wallace in the middle game of a back-to-back-to-back earlier in the season, but Frank hasn’t made similar moves often this year. If Frank were really concerned about resting Prince, maybe Frank could have sat Prince sooner during a 39-point win over Cleveland.
And even if Prince needed rest last night and not Tuesday, why start Austin Daye – who’s played terribly this season – rather than Damien Wilkins or Jonas Jerebko.
As far as it being an unwinnable game? No way. In three matchups entering Wednesday, the Pistons had played the Hawks to overtime at home, won at home and lost by five in Atlanta. Just a few days ago, Goodwill wrote that the Pistons were on their way to challenging Chicago (47-15). But they can’t beat Atlanta (37-25)?
Here’s my guess – and it’s nothing more than that: Frank thought he could implement the coaching part of tanking (using suboptimal lineups) without the players exercising their part of tanking (not playing hard).
It didn’t work.
The players quit, and that’s why Frank was so terse after the game. Frank stuck his toes in the tanking pool against a playoff opponent rather than jumping in against another tanking team, Cleveland, the previous night. I don’t think he has the stomach for it, and I think the Pistons’ regular rotation players – plus Vernon Macklin – will play bigger minutes against the Timberwolves tonight.
The Pistons didn’t tank before last night, and I don’t expect them to tank (beyond some very minor steps, like playing Macklin) the rest of the season. But, barring any new evidence, I’m convinced they tanked last night.
Update: In response who still don’t think the Pistons tanked , here’s the one question to ask: If the Pistons were in a playoff race, would Frank have coached the same way last night? If the answer is no, they tanked.
Pistons Lottery Odds: April 14, 2012
Created using the Basketball Prospectus season-ending projections. See complete lottery odds for all teams here.
Pistons lottery odds: April 11, 2012
- The Pistons are likely to pick No. 8 or No. 9 in the upcoming draft.
- They’re more likely to pick No. 10 than they are to pick in the top two.
- They could draft anywhere in the lottery.
Those are just some of the findings of the draft odds I created for Basketball Prospectus. These odds are, in my opinion, the most accurate available because they account for how likely each lottery seed is to receive each pick and how likely each team is to receive each lottery seed (using Kevin Pelton’s simulation for the rest of the season run 1,000 times).
Here are the Pistons’ odds:
- 1st: 3.0 percent
- 2nd: 3.5 percent
- 3rd: 4.1 percent
- 4th: >0 percent
- 5th: 0.7 percent
- 6th: 3.4 percent
- 7th: 12.2 percent
- 8th: 32.1 percent
- 9th: 31.6 percent
- 10th: 8.2 percent
- 11th: 1.3 percent
- 12th: 0.1 percent
- 13th: >0 percent
- 14th: >0 percent
Some round to 0.0 percent but are greater than zero.
