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ESPN’s Chad Ford has Pistons selecting Joe Harris at No. 38 in latest mock draft

ESPN.com’s Chad Ford wrote on Monday:

joe harris

 

 

 
Toss another name into the Pistons’ cauldron of draft prospects.

Virginia guard Joe Harris joins a diverse group of prospects that the Pistons could select with the No. 38 pick on Thursday. With such a late selection, it’s been hard to get a feel for what Stan Van Gundy may be looking for, but a player like Harris makes a lot sense for the perimeter-needy Pistons.

Harris, 22, is one of the draft’s top shooters, no question, but I think it’s a little unfair to pigeonhole him as simply “just” a shooter. Sure, he averaged 1.9 threes per game during his four-year career at Virginia — finishing as a 41 percent shooter from deep.

There’s more to his game than shooting, though. He was usually good to grab four-or-so rebounds a night, and was more than capable of moving the ball within Virginia’s grind-it-out offense. That system may have hurt him as the years went on, specifically when the best Cavaliers were a legit contender this year, and Harris took a bit of a back seat offensively.

But either way, it looks like he can be a good positional defender and is proven to be a more-than able shooter. That sounds like two pretty big areas of need for the Pistons, right?

35 Comments

  • Jun 23, 20147:18 pm
    by Crispus

    Reply

    Well why don’t we just clone Kentavious Caldwell-Pope then and split his salary?

    • Jun 23, 20147:35 pm
      by Brady Fredericksen

      Reply

      because Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has so far proven to be one of those shooting guards who can’t shoot.

      • Jun 23, 20148:04 pm
        by JYD for Life

        Reply

        Yes, but you’ve got an incredibly small sample size…probably premature to jump to conclusions. 
         
        Harris would be fine…as would Early, P. Young, Tavares, or any guy that falls from the first round…
         
        Other guys I like in the 2nd – O’Bryant, Russ Smith…Might as well actually take a flier on Birch – that mock pointed out that he ranks in the top 20 in WARP projections.  

        • Jun 24, 201410:34 am
          by Rich

          Reply

          460 shots is not a small sampling.

          • Jun 24, 201410:42 am
            by Tim Thielke

            True, the argument for KCP shouldn’t be that he didn’t get a chance but that he has lots of time to improve.

          • Jun 24, 201412:55 pm
            by JYD for Life

            I disagree…that was 192nd in the league and 47 out of 104 Shooting Guards.  
            6 shot attempts per game ranks up there with Delladova, Bazemore, Hollis Thompson, Willie Green and Sefolosha. 
             
            That’s hardly enough of a sample size.  

          • Jun 24, 20142:06 pm
            by Tim Thielke

            What qualifies as a large enough sample size to draw conclusions is not dependent on how large other samples were. There’s no rule that the bottom 25% or whatever are always too small to infer anything. It has to do with how much normal random variance could throw off the conclusions. This is about absolute numbers. 460 isn’t an insanely large sample, but for a 50/50ish occurrence, it’s reasonably hefty. It’s big enough that a few shots going one way or the other aren’t really going to tip the scales.

            So, yes, you can claim sample size if you want to really fine tune what his actual probability of putting a shot through the rim was. But it depends how precise you want to be.

            KCP hit 182 of 460 shots (39.6%). We can say with 99.9997% certainty that his probability of hitting one of those shots was less than 50%. But, of course, 50% would be a very good shooter. So let’s look at 45% instead, about an average mark. Based on his sample size, we can say he’s worse than that with 99.2% certainty. 42% is a poor but not abysmal mark. We can say with 86.6% certainty that he’s worse than that.

            So yeah, if you were trying to filter out noise to the point of putting him in a +/- 0.5% range, this is too small a sample size. But we can say with about 70% certainty that, discounting noise, he should have shot between 38% and 42%. That’s precise enough for me.

            To put that in perspective, Kevin Durant took the most shots in the league last year at 1688. That allows us to put his actual shooting probability at any given confidence in a range a little more than half the size of KCP’s. So if you think his numbers are useful for prediction with +/- 1%, then you should think KCP’s are within 2%. And if you think Durant’s are within 5%, then KCP’s are within 10%.

          • Jun 24, 20141:23 pm
            by Parsons

            Plus with Josh and the statue of Jennings KCP really didn’t get that many good shots. His shots always came at the end of the clock on the rare occasions that they actually passed it to him. You’d need a crow bar to pry the ball away from Smith and Jennings most nights. I get that he never really proved he deserved to be more involved in the offence but when they did involve him he did better. Either way he can’t possibly shoot worse than Jennings. To me with the screwy lineup and coaching dysfunction this was a lost year for KCP. I don’t think any rookie could have played well under these conditions.

          • Jun 24, 20145:42 pm
            by JYD for Life

            @Tim – ok, so by the definition of sample size, you win.  But I can’t tell if you’re arguing just for the sake of it… 
             
            In regards to basketball and specifically a situation where we are measuring a young player while factoring in variables like poor coaching, mismatched positions by others on the roster and just two of the worst “team” players there are, that’s not large enough.  
             
            I’ll stand by my KCP projections for next season listed below.  

          • Jun 24, 20147:29 pm
            by Tim Thielke

            Those are fair points, but none of them have anything to do with sample size. KCP could have shot 5,000 attempts and that wouldn’t change any of the other factors.

            And it is valid to suggest a small sample size. It just depends on how precise you’re trying to be. For how much precision I’m interested in, there were plenty of data points.

          • Jun 24, 201411:34 pm
            by JYD for Life

            That’s where the disconnect is.   
            I would like to see more and am not comfortable coming to any sort of conclusion about KCP without it. 
             
             

      • Jun 23, 20148:07 pm
        by JYD for Life

        Reply

        KCP will be fine.  Give him 32 mins per game with some touches and you’ll see 15 pts, 3 rebs, 2 ast, 1.5 stls, .75 blks, One or two 3-pters and quality defense.  
         
         

        • Jun 23, 20149:04 pm
          by Ryan

          Reply

          I could KCP giving us 15 points, 4-6 rebounds, and few turnovers with good defense. That’d be really valuable.

          I am optimistic that everyone on our roster will look good with better coaching. It’s hard to say how much they’ll improve but our coaching has been so bad for so long they have to get better.

  • Jun 23, 20148:05 pm
    by Ryan

    Reply

    I don’t know much about Joe Harris but if the scouting reports are to be trusted his skill set does sound like one we could use. At the same time Crispus makes a good point that KCP is our shooting guard already. With that in mind I’d rather we added either a small forward or a point guard if we have a good option at either position.

    • Jun 23, 20148:08 pm
      by JYD for Life

      Reply

      well we do need a SG off the bench…

      • Jun 23, 20149:02 pm
        by Ryan

        Reply

        Agreed, Harris isn’t a bad option if we aren’t able to find a good point guard or small forward prospect. Any thoughts on Markel Brown?

        • Jun 23, 20149:14 pm
          by JYD for Life

          Reply

          He’s intriguing…I actually like those skill sets rather than a guy like Harris, who seems to be more of a catch and shoot type who can’t do much else at the next level.  
           
          Brown is crazy active and I think that type of movement actually opens up the floor and can be as effective as having knock-down shooters.  
           
          You also don’t have to worry about a guy like him giving up more points than he can score.  

          • Jun 23, 201411:01 pm
            by Ryan

            Agreed. My second round dream is that we pick up another draft choice and get either Cleanthony Early or Thanasis Antetokounmpo with one of the picks and Markel Brown with the other.

    • Jun 25, 20141:08 am
      by oats

      Reply

      Why can’t Joe Harris play SF exactly? He’s 6’6″ and 215 pounds, that’s not exactly that far off from the league average of roughly 6’8″ and 225 pounds. He’s a prototypical modern NBA wing, a guy that isn’t really a SG or a SF, but rather just someone that will play some of both positions. I don’t mind if you want someone with a different skill set, although this team is pretty desperate for a guy that can shoot and play some defense. I also wouldn’t mind it if the argument was you wanted to go after a guy with a higher upside. He is less likely to develop into a good starter than some of the other guys, although he does have potential as a 3 and D guy that could probably start for a lot of teams. Passing on him because he isn’t a SF is kind of weird to me though.

  • Jun 23, 20148:34 pm
    by James

    Reply

    It’s just been extremely hard to gauge real talent and potential on this team for the last 5 years really. The coaching futility along with the Owner and GM over zealousness, different ideas and plain old stubborn attitudes have left us in the dark as fans. I’m no SVG fan AT ALL, but I am at least willing to see what he can do with total control over the roster and players. Can’t run to the GM now and complain about the coach, can’t complain about not getting enough playing time or lack of effort. IT’S GAME TIME.

  • Jun 23, 20148:42 pm
    by JYD for Life

    Reply

    In other news…Mo Williams just opted out. 
     
    I can’t stand him, but he has range.  
    if they fail to sign Collison or Chalmers and don’t move Jennings, I’d be ok with Mo as a backup.  
     
    Thoughts?

    • Jun 23, 20149:36 pm
      by Tim Thielke

      Reply

      Mo Williams is a lesser version of Brandon Jennings.

      • Jun 23, 20149:41 pm
        by JYD for Life

        Reply

        I’m not sure he’s that bad! 
         
        But you’re right…he’s what I hope we can turn Jennings into (an irrational confidence guy off the bench). 

        • Jun 23, 20149:58 pm
          by Tim Thielke

          Reply

          I’m very sure that you overstate how bad Jennings is. Mo Williams is absolutely the inferior player of the two, on both ends.

          • Jun 23, 201410:40 pm
            by JYD for Life

            I don’t know…I’d actually rather have Mo…he’s more self aware, doesn’t “pop Molly” and certainly puts forth a little more effort on the defensive end. 

  • Jun 23, 20149:13 pm
    by allan

    Reply

    draft damien inglis or
    Thanasis Antetokounmpo.,
     
    and try to get greives vasquez and thabo sefelosha.,

    • Jun 23, 20149:21 pm
      by JYD for Life

      Reply

      I like where your head is at with the defense…outside of Grievas.  He is Jennings-esque on D (Ok, he’s not that bad, but you get the point!). 

  • Jun 23, 201410:03 pm
    by Hook Shot

    Reply

    I hope Detroit is targeting either Hayward or Ariza. Joe Harris would be good for bench.  KCP has a lot to prove and if Harris can challenge for starting 2 guard so much the better. There also is a void of leadership on this team. Hayward has that quality. I hope Jennings is some place working on his game. He needs to get stronger so he has a better chane of finishing at the rim. Good luck SVG. 

    • Jun 23, 201410:19 pm
      by Andy

      Reply

      I would love to see us go and get Hayward. 

      • Jun 24, 20143:55 am
        by @GPMasters

        Reply

        Agreed.

        • Jun 24, 20145:54 am
          by JYD for Life

          Reply

          There’s just one problem….Hayward is a restricted FA.  
          Utah can (and will) match any offer for him.  Unfortunately, we don’t have any assets they want to do a s&t.  

  • Jun 23, 201410:19 pm
    by Andy

    Reply

    Harris would be a good pick, able to play backup SG for Pope and can slide to the 3 position for a few minutes due to his good strength. Hopefully we draft someone that can make a good impact from the start. 

  • Jun 24, 20145:01 am
    by greg

    Reply

    trade josh smith to lakers for steve nash and their pick #7…draft smart and get hayward..get rid of bynum and draft iglis in the 2nd round…

    • Jun 24, 20147:43 am
      by Nick S

      Reply

      thats the best move Ive read, and the Lakers would love to get rid of Nash (contract)

  • Jun 24, 20148:40 am
    by Paul

    Reply

    If Mo Williams was a few years younger I’d say yeah but at this point we should pass on him. But I do agree it would be nice to have a starting PG who’s not “popping molly” in the off season.
    I REALLY wants us to find a way to trade into the first round and grab Payne from MSU. Him and Drummond up front would be amazing.

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