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Pistons’ odds of keeping their first-round pick, by scenario

When the Pistons’ season ends, they will have between a 30.8 percent and 99.0 percent chance of keeping their pick which goes to the Bobcats unless it falls in the top eight.

We’re close to narrowing that range, though. A single result by five teams – the Pistons, Cavaliers, Pelicans, Kings and Lakers – would swing the minimum or maximum.

Here are the current range of possible season-ending odds along with what happens if one of whatever is listed in each scenario occurs:


Note: Each scenario affects only the minimum or maximum. So, if multiple scenarios occur, you can apply both changes. E.g., if Detroit loses and Sacramento loses, the Pistons minimum increases to 82.4 and their maximum decreases to 90.3.


  • Apr 11, 20144:13 pm
    by Keith


    I feel very confident we will end up with the 8th worst record. We would have to win out to catch Cle or NO, and there’s nothing to suggest this team can actually win out. Sacramento would have to win 2 of 3 against playoff caliber teams (in the WEST) to tie us, which seems very unlikely. LA would have to win out against 3 Western playoff teams, which seems almost impossible.
    82.4% chance of keeping the pick.
    10% chance of landing a top 3 pick.

  • Apr 11, 20145:20 pm
    by Byron


    I’ve been saying for months that we’ll finish with the 8th worst record (or tie for 7th and lose the coin-flip) and then Cleveland will jump into the top 3 and send our pick to Charlotte.

  • Apr 13, 20149:09 am
    by Robb


    So which teams are above us that can jump us with that coin toss?

    • Apr 13, 201410:26 am
      by Tim Thielke


      None. The Pistons only lose out on a top 8 pick by a >8 seed jumping in the lottery. The only coin toss they could be in would be for 7th if Sacramento wins its last two and Detroit loses its last two.

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