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Shabazz Muhammad to Pistons in new ESPN mock draft

Chad Ford’s second NBA mock draft for ESPN has the Pistons selecting Shabazz Muhammad with the No. 7 pick:

The Pistons have had a bit of luck the past few years in the lottery. Every year a player who is ranked very high at the start of the season seems to slide to them later in the draft and somehow fits a perfect need. First it was Greg Monroe in 2010. Brandon Knight slid in 2011. Last year it was Andre Drummond. At times, all three were ranked in the top five with Monroe and Drummond going as high as No. 2. Could it happen again this year with Muhammad? The Pistons clearly have a need for a shooter, and before the season began, many scouts had Muhammad as a top-three pick. He didn’t look like one at UCLA, but draft prospects rarely shine in Ben Howland’s system.

Unless the Pistons move up in the May 21 lottery, expect a lot of mock drafts projecting them to draft Muhammad. A top consensus top six has emerged – Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, Otto Porter, Victor Oladipo, Trey Burke and Anthony Bennett – and most mock drafts, like Ford’s, will have those six taken before the Pistons pick. At that point, Muhammad is a big name whose scoring ability and position makes him a decent fit with the Pistons.

190 Comments

  • May 8, 20132:50 pm
    by G

    Reply

    I saw that. If the Pistons don’t get any lottery help, I might as well resign myself to this reality. Ugh.

    • May 8, 20132:58 pm
      by Huddy

      Reply

      Were definitely going to be projected with Shabazz, but I think at least one of Len, Zeller, Mccollum, MCW have a chance of jumping so event at 7 theres a solid chance at Burke/Bennet/Oladipo.  If none of those guys are falling I tend to think we might be better off trading down. 

  • May 8, 20132:56 pm
    by Reaction

    Reply

    I would rather have the draft McCollum.. Watch his stock skyrocket at the combine etc. I’ll guarantee that much. Even Chad Ford is seeing it happen

  • May 8, 20133:13 pm
    by Carl

    Reply

    Very accurate to say draft prospects rarely shine in Ben Howland’s system.  Russell Westbrook was 3rd fiddle to Collison & Love at UCLA.  I wouldn’t mind Muhammad dropping to us.  He’s a lefty w/ a smooth stroke.  His youtube highlights say plenty.  Although Bennett will be a monster, and would play a nice role as the first big off the bench, or even replace Moose if we don’t decide to extend him. 

    • May 8, 20133:22 pm
      by Chris N

      Reply

      “His youtube highlights say plenty.”

      To me they say scorer with a decent stroke and decidedly average (at best) perimeter skills. What do they say to you? 

      • May 8, 20133:33 pm
        by Huddy

        Reply

        Nobody’s youtube highlights say anything.  Clips of a guys best plays?  Yeah they look good, but you gotta watch him play whole games against different types of competition to get a handle on a guy’s potential.  This is true whether you like him or not, if you really want to see him drafted it should be based on more than youtube clips.  Shabazz is mostly questioned on how his game (especially posting up) will translate when the competition elevates.  Even moves that look good in his college games could be ineffective all together in the NBA.  He also doesn’t rebound or pass well, if all he has is a smooth stroke we can pick up a proven NBA shooter cheap in FA.

        • May 8, 20133:44 pm
          by Carl

          Reply

          Not sure how many FA shooters will come cheap.  Korver & Redick will cost you at least 6 mil per.  A #7 pick will cost at minimum 2 mil or so. 

          • May 8, 20133:57 pm
            by Huddy

            Korver makes 5 a year and is looking at a contract taking him into age 35…not likely to increase his per year number, reddick is overpriced wouldnt want him, Webster is cheaper, Dorell Wright made around 4 didnt have a good contract year, Mccollum is a better shooter than Shabazz and could be had with a trade down.  To you point below, his shooting off the dribble is a weakness, much better spot up shooter than on the move.  He also has character issues which can make even truly elite players(which he isn’t) bad picks. 

          • May 8, 20135:03 pm
            by tarsier

            I really like Wright as a buy low candidate.

            I’d be really surprised if Korver gets over $4M/yr.

            Other options include Devin Harris, Anthony Morrow, Jarret Jack, Matt Barnes, Antawn Jamison, and Beno Udrih.

            Lots of low cost shooters available. 

          • May 8, 20139:07 pm
            by oats

            @ Carl. Randy Foye, Marco Belinelli, Mike Dunleavy Jr, Jodie Meeks, Xavier Henry, Nick Young, Brandon Rush, and Daequan Cook. All of those guys except for Henry are league average or better at 3 on their career, and Henry did it this year. Plus there’s tarsier’s entire list. I obviously prefer Muhammad to some of those players, but not by as much as would be worth the 7th pick in the draft.
             
            You also seem to be missing the value of the 7th pick to some extent. Rookie deals are a chance to get someone who is way better than their salary, and to get them young. That elevates their value significantly. Charlotte took on an extra year of Ben Gordon for what is likely to be a pick outside of the top 8 next year, which sets that value at about $14 million, or the salary difference between Maggette and Gordon. The point is that draft picks are more valuable than cap space, so saving $2-4 million by getting Muhammad instead of one of those shooters does not make him worth the 7th pick. Especially since someone like Morrow can likely be had for about the same $2 million and still give you that shooting. Plus Redick is so much better than Muhammad as a shooter that it would definitely be worth the $4 million extra.

        • May 8, 20133:48 pm
          by Huddy

          Reply

          didnt mean to put doesnt rebound well—he did in college less likely in NBA because not a great athlete and is being talked about as more of a 2 than a 3 now.

      • May 8, 20133:38 pm
        by Carl

        Reply

        They say that his ability to drive and finish at the rim along with his ability to pull-up on a dime for a mid-range jumper is more than any wing we have on the roster.  You have any brighter ideas at #7? 

        • May 8, 20133:49 pm
          by G

          Reply

          I don’t recall him taking it to the rack that much. Actually, finishing and creating his own offense are considered WEAKNESSES for Muhammad, per draftexpress.

          That said, no, I don’t have any brighter at #7 if the “consensus top 6″ are gone. Some guys like McCollum, Len or MCW. I really don’t like any of them better than Shabazz. The only guy I see as MAYBE having an edge over him is KCP (because of defense). 

        • May 9, 201312:11 am
          by I HATE FRANK

          Reply

          @Carl draftexpress talks about his strengthen to finished under and around the basket then comes back and says he does not finish at the basket…

          They said he struggles to create his own offense, but then say most of his offense came off the ball..

          That’s why I laugh when people call him self or a blackhole, he rarely went one on one, the offense was not designed that way. 

          go on youtube and watch Shabazz vs Arizona 10-12 minutes of footage, it shows how he gets his offense its not highlights its based on possessions.

           

          • May 9, 20138:25 am
            by G

            Off the ball means most of his offense was catch & shoot, running off screens, etc. Designed plays or working within a system. Creating your own offense means WITH THE BALL. He struggles to create his own offense, improvising, etc.

            He’s a black hole because HE DIDN’T PASS. That’s what a black hole is. They pass to him, he shoots, no matter how many defenders are on him. 

    • May 8, 20138:06 pm
      by oats

      Reply

      @ Carl. The Ben Howland guys that struggled in college usually don’t have the offense designed around them. It was clearly the goal of that UCLA team to maximize Shabazz. They let him camp out down low, they let him spot up at the 3 point line, and they gave him mid range curls. That’s pretty much his entire game, and they set up the offense to get him those looks. Shabazz led the team in Field Goal attempts despite being less efficient than Jordan Adams. This really doesn’t feel like a situation where Howland was holding him back, at least not from what I can tell.
       
      As for the brighter ideas than Muhammad, I think there are a lot of options better than him. I’m really not that high on Muhammad. I don’t care if he can hit those mid range curls, I’m really not sold on that shot being a good one to take for a wing player in Detroit anyways. Detroit needs someone that can open up some space on the court. I really do think Muhammad’s decent 3 point shooting is due to a hot a start and limited attempts, but in a longer NBA season he’d see his numbers sag significantly. Besides, I’m not convinced he’s better at that curl than Khris Middleton, or at least not by enough to be worth a top 10 pick. Maybe if he did anything else on the court I’d change my mind, but he doesn’t. He’s a bad rebounder if he’s a 3, and only average if he becomes a shooting guard. His passing and defensive stats are awful. He doesn’t even hit a good percentage on two point shot attempts. He’s a guy who does nothing but score, and I really have a hard time seeing him score efficiently in the pros when he is only kind of average efficiency in college.
       
      I just think Muhammad is a pedestrian prospect whose production could be replicated at any time. Even if they lose their draft pick next year, and the year after they make the playoffs I’d still expect them to be able to get an equivalent player to Muhammad somewhere around 20 or even later. That’s what he projects as, a guy that should be taken in the 20s. I don’t see any significant difference between him and Allen Crabbe, and Crabbe is projected to go in the late 20s. That would actually be preferable in my opinion since the 20th pick will make less than the 7th. It’s only a million a year, but it still makes sense to me. That’s where I’m at with Muhammad, I’d rather move down and get a comparable prospect and something else for my efforts than just take Muhammad. I should also point out that trading down rarely ever works in the NBA, and I don’t care because I really don’t like Muhammad. If I was going to stay put I’d probably take Kentavious Caldwell Pope, but I still wouldn’t feel great about it. Someone has to be 7th though, and I just trust Pope as a prospect more than the rest of these guys.

      • May 8, 201310:39 pm
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        Nearly 38% for 3′s is bad?

        He was one of the perimeter top offensive rebounder…that’s bad?

        You guys talk off of emotions…

        Do you know how common it is for freshmen to hit the wall? Especially for shooters

        • May 9, 201312:21 am
          by oats

          Reply

          I know reading comprehension isn’t your strong suit, but it’s good to know memory isn’t either. I didn’t say his 3 point shooting was bad, I said that if he took more shots his percentage likely would have kept going the way it had been for the past 22 of his 32 games, namely down. He only took 106 attempts from 3, not a lot of opportunitie for his actual skill to assert itself.
           
          Do you know how often the wall is at 10 games in? That’s when Muhammad hit his. Given that, it is far less likely that he hit a wall than that he just wasn’t that good. That argument is not sound.

          • May 9, 20138:36 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            “”I know reading comprehension isn’t your strong suit, but it’s good to know memory isn’t either. I didn’t say his 3 point shooting was bad, I said that if he took more shots his percentage likely would have kept going the way it had been for the past 22 of his 32 games, namely down. He only took 106 attempts from 3, not a lot of opportunitie for his actual skill to assert itself.”"

            My comprehension is fine, although you write way too much.

            “”Muhammad’s decent 3 point shooting is due to a hot a start and limited attempts, but in a longer NBA season he’d see his numbers sag significantly.”

            “My point is he only had ONE Poor stretch of 3 point shooting in the last 7 games.

            He played within the system, it the system was not based around him jacking 3′s like your boy. 

            So my Question to you was is nearly 38% for Bad?

          • May 9, 20138:51 am
            by G

            Good lord, do you have a learning disability or something? Let me spell it out for you:
            NO. NEARLY 38% ISN’T BAD.
            BUT
            He shot unsustainably well in the first 10 games, the last 22 he was sub-average. Oats (and I) believe the first 10 games to be the aberration, you obviously don’t.

            Btw, if the offense wasn’t designed for Shabazz to be jacking up 3′s all the time, why’d he shoot 11 of them in the 2nd game against Washington State (making only 2)? If anytime was a time to hold off on jacking up 3′s, that was it.

          • May 9, 201310:37 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            In 6 games in December he averaged 22ppg 15shot attempts 53%FG 48% for 3?s
            If you combine November, January, and February he played 19 games
            Averaged 17ppg 13.5 44%FG and 42% for 3?s ….
            In March 7 games he averged 16ppg 15.5 shot attempts 38%FG 18% for 3?s ….
            So if you take away his best month in December and take away his worst month in March and call it an aberration…In math its called finding the “Median”

            In the 19 games combined,November,January,February he averged three , 3 point attempts.

            Once again, i tend to believe based on simple math, that he is 17ppg to 22 ppg player , vs the 16ppg to 17ppg players. And this is not cherry picking

          • May 9, 201310:47 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            “”Btw, if the offense wasn’t designed for Shabazz to be jacking up 3?s all the time, why’d he shoot 11 of them in the 2nd game against Washington State (making only 2)? If anytime was a time to hold off on jacking up 3?s, that was it”"

            I didnt see that game but I agree, so that one game defines him?

            vs Southern Southern Mississippi Pope went 3-14 for 3′s

            Vs Villanova Porter went 2-9 for 3′s

            whats the difference?

          • May 9, 201311:13 am
            by G

            I’m not a fan of eliminating outliers unless there’s a plausible reason for eliminating them. I’m especially against ignoring the last month of the season, when a player has had the most time to improve & learn the system. I think oats’ explanation for Shabazz’s first 10 games – the scouting report said he had a bad 3PT shot & teams left him open more – to be plausible, but not a perfect explanation. It’s probably a combination of that and him just having a hot stroke to start the year. Is that enough to chuck the first 3rd of his college season? No, but I take those numbers with a grain of salt.

            My whole point about bringing up Shabazz’s 2-11 3PT shooting brick-barrage was that 11 threes is a lot of attempts if you’re arguing that the system was holding him back.

            By the way, the mathmatical way to find the median would be to arrange his games by best to worst and the game in the center would be the median. Not the way you did it. 

  • May 8, 20133:18 pm
    by Jacob

    Reply

    I’d be more than happy with Muhammad. The guy can shoot and is a position that the Pistons desperately need. Hard to ask for much more in a draft that looks this poor.

  • May 8, 20133:18 pm
    by T Casey

    Reply

    God, I hope we don’t get stuck with Shabazz. Not only is his game unimpressive, but his attitude is concerning.

  • May 8, 20133:19 pm
    by Thiago

    Reply

    I think that if the top6 are gone, Detroit should trade down.

     

  • May 8, 20133:26 pm
    by Tiko

    Reply

    We’ll be lucky if he’s there at 7 

    • May 8, 20133:32 pm
      by Thiago

      Reply

      We’d be lucky if he AIN’T there.

      That would mean we were getting either Burke, Oladipo, Porter, McLemore or Bennett. 

      • May 8, 20134:35 pm
        by tarsier

        Reply

        Indeed, but what is really worrying is the possibility of the Pistons drafting 8th. I like the odds of one team dropping the ball a lot more than the odds of two teams doing so.

  • May 8, 20133:47 pm
    by danny

    Reply

    nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo but i really doubt no matter what pick we will end up with him.

  • May 8, 20133:50 pm
    by Jeremy

    Reply

    A top 6 may have emerged but that doesn’t mean that they all will be gone by the time the Pistons pick at 7 and as Ford mentioned in a chat earlier today, his mocks are made off of rumblings that he hears from personnel within the organizations and there is always the possibility that a smoke screen is being thrown up by a team when he gets his information.
     
    I personally am not a fan of Shabazz (probably because his name sounds like it should be one of those comic book noise words). At that point in the draft though, I am not sure who I would want. I wouldn’t be upset if they took Zeller, even if all he becomes is decent rotation guy. I live by the philosophy that you can never have too many big guys. Wings can be found in free agency.

  • May 8, 20134:11 pm
    by Jeremy J.

    Reply

    You just never know what is going to happen and who is going to rise and fall. This time last year it looked like a forgone conclusion that we were going to draft Sullinger or Henson. I wouldn’t mind drafting Muhammad because there is no sure thing in this draft and he can at least put up some points, which we lack. Our first pick last year had questions coming out of college and he has all but answered them.

    • May 8, 20134:43 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      What you’ll note, though, is that everyone was super excited about getting Drummond in spite of his “questions coming out of college”. Only a handful of people want Muhammad.

      That is because, in spite of Drummond’s underwhelming performance at UConn, his potential remained on full display (so while we were worried about his floor, his ceiling made him worth it).

      Muhammad’s lackluster season doesn’t really raise a lot of concerns about his floor. I’m betting he’ll be a serviceable player, but it really made his ceiling look not all that great. With lottery picks you really need that potential for greatness.

      If you want a safe, mediocre player, don’t waste a top 10 pick. Get him in free agency. 

      • May 8, 201310:33 pm
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        How many games did you watch him play? just wondering

         

        • May 9, 201311:00 am
          by tarsier

          Reply

          Three. Which is more than I can say about most NCAA players. I’m much more into NBA.

          So yeah, my analysis is largely based on stats, scouting reports, profiling, etc. 

      • May 10, 20131:18 am
        by Jordan

        Reply

        So he’s Harrison Barnes? Barnes was highly touted out of high school, struggled in college for two years, didn’t display elite athleticism, and was the focal point of his teams offense.

  • May 8, 20134:15 pm
    by Chris N

    Reply

    “I personally am not a fan of Shabazz (probably because his name sounds like it should be one of those comic book noise words).”

    What kind of comic books do you read?  I’ve never seen a noise effect that sounded like “Shabazz Muhammad.”

  • May 8, 20134:32 pm
    by Jens

    Reply

    I am sorry, but I am beyond disappointed. Except Noel (who would have been great tradebait, though) we could use anyone from the “consensus” top 6. Everybody could see it coming, yet, the Pistons continued to play “hard” with a coach on the helm who was dead meat. If we had lost one more game we’d be tied for 6th with Sacramento, if we had lost two more wed be tied with New Orleans for 5th! Now we are looking at Muhammad, who is terrible at creating his own shot and is undersized to play the 3 or at McCollum who is an undersized scorer at the 2 position. The idea of drafting Len or Zeller is the most stupid stuff I’ve ever heard from the Pistons. This easily tops the Iverson trade in 2008.

    After Knight was a hughe disappointment (or you could call it “by far not as good as advertised”) we have next to nothing apart from our two bigs. Let’s see what happens, but I am not very optimistic about the playoffs next year   

  • May 8, 20134:44 pm
    by tom

    Reply

    Is there really a gelled consensus at this point? I just looked at the first 10 mocks that come up when you google the draft and half of them had Oladipo going 7th or later. Not to say that you’re wrong, but seems to me that there is more uncertainty about this draft than most in recent years – and even those tend to differ from the mocks by quite a bit.  

    • May 8, 20134:47 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      They are far and away the top 6 across mocks in general, but it’s not uncommon to see Len or Muhammad sneak ahead of one of them.

    • May 8, 20134:52 pm
      by G

      Reply

      What’s going on is all the draft sites have the same top 6 guys in some order (except draftnet, which is a joke), and then it gets fuzzy. When it comes to the mocks, they often have teams reaching for a player out of the top 6 to fit a need. A mock isn’t where you look for consensus, it’s on the big board.

  • May 8, 20134:51 pm
    by sebastian

    Reply

    If WE do end up with the 7th or 8th pick, I say trade the pick to the Rockets for Thomas Robinson.
    Yeah, I know he was traded from the Kings to the Rockets and did very little during his rookie season, but the guy could help to strengthen OUR front line. He is only one year removed from the #5 Pick in the 2012 Draft and he will want to prove that he was worthy of his draft position.
    Besides, I don’t believe that the Rockets really know what they have in this kid.

    • May 8, 20134:56 pm
      by G

      Reply

      Wrong on 2 fronts – first, the Rockets LOVED that they got this guy & recognize that he’s a bit of a project, so they’re not going to just let him go. Second, how is Robinson a fit for this team? He’s a PF with purely an inside game. You couldn’t ever play him with Drummond, and really shouldn’t play him with Monroe either.

      • May 8, 20137:05 pm
        by oats

        Reply

        He shot that mid range shot pretty well in college actually. I’m really not certain why he pretty much never took mid range shots this year, especially since he was often playing with some guys that could have benefited from him opening up the floor a bit with a mid range jumper. He also is a terrible free throw shooter now despite having been solid at the line his junior year.
         
        I was one of the people who thought Robinson was going to be good, and part of why I really liked him for Detroit is that he had that mid range game. I really can’t say I completely understand what’s happened to him this year, but I suspect it has something to do with both the dysfunction of the Kings and trying to be integrated into a team that was in a playoff push after the trade. He really has not shown an ability to translate his college shooting ability to the NBA game for whatever reason. Still, it is vaguely reasonable to think that jump shot is something he could add. I’d put the odds of it slightly below Monroe doing it due to the free throw shooting, but he also was decent at that in his junior year. Again, I don’t understand what is going on with Robinson, other than the fact that some guys just don’t transition well to the next level.

        • May 8, 20139:39 pm
          by gmehl

          Reply

          The poor kids confidence was shot… Sacramento style

  • May 8, 20134:56 pm
    by MrBlockedShot

    Reply

    You guys worry so much. We are going to get a top-three pick so no worries. Can see it coming :-)

  • May 8, 20135:30 pm
    by Corey

    Reply

    Here’s hoping Bennet’s surgery pushes him down to us… Or McCollum rises… Or someone has a total brain fart and just likes Muhammad enough to draft him before us… Please! I’d take MCCollum over Shabazz in a heartbeat if we’re left with those options.

  • May 8, 20135:31 pm
    by Travis

    Reply

    As someone else mentioned, last year the Pistons were projected to pick Henson, Zeller, or Sullinger. Lots of movement between now and June 27th.

    I hope the Pistons entertain trade offers if the best that is available is Muhammad, Carter-Williams, or McCollum.

  • May 8, 20135:48 pm
    by tarsier

    Reply

    This is only barely tangentially related to the topic at hand, but something I have wanted to see a GM do for quite some time is to find another team with comparable expectations at the outset of a season and swap unprotected draft picks (this shouldn’t be too hard, I think most GMs believe their teams are better than projected).

    This would essentially be betting on your team as it’s a win if your team outperforms the other and a loss if it fails to do so. It would discourage tanking, it would encourage an extra bitter rivalry, it would show guts–and cockiness. And it would just be fun because of the novelty. 

    • May 8, 20135:55 pm
      by Desolation Row

      Reply

      I like this idea a lot. Would love to see it happen.

    • May 8, 20138:23 pm
      by Sop

      Reply

      Well Joe D essentially bet on the Pistons making the Playoffs either this year or next by giving up our pick to Charlotte.

      • May 8, 20138:32 pm
        by oats

        Reply

        Or he decided that Ben Gordon was just so toxic to the team that he wanted to get him away from the young players immediately and didn’t mind the cost of doing so. Given the attempted one man mutiny in Charlotte that seems vaguely plausible as an explanation.

        • May 8, 201310:40 pm
          by tarsier

          Reply

          but he had the amnesty provision as an alternate means to rid the team of gordon

          besides, even if the pistons make the playoffs, the pick is liable to still be a decent pick in the teens. 

  • May 8, 20136:49 pm
    by The Rake

    Reply

    We’ve all wanted certain guys in the past few years and some have fallen to us magically and others (Rodney White, etc.) have been busts. There are no sure things in any drafts. Those that love Oladipo, I;m not so sure he’s remotely close to a sure thing. I love Burke to death, but his size bothers me, even if he is there for us magically. Point being, we simply have to trust in JD to do the right thing. That has not been as easy to do in the last 6 years or so as it was in the past, but bottom line is he has done well the past 3 years, even if people are souring on BK. Kid is what 21? He still has room for growth. This is an impatient world, we need some perspective. We could go down the lotto pick list of all picks in the last 5 years and see how many of them have flamed out. Answer, a high number. It’s a crap shoot.

  • May 8, 20137:03 pm
    by Sop

    Reply

    Everyone in this conversation talking about how the Pistons should draft
    Noel, McLemore, Porter, HomeDepot, Burke, or Anthony Bennett should get a clue. I the Pistons draft at 7 all of those guys will be gone. Sure all of those guys are probably better prospects than Muhammed, but look at the realistic options available at 7:
    a. Muhammed: limited athleticism but skilled and plays hard
    b. CJ McCollum: mirrors what Knight already brings
    c. Len: 3 young centers?
    d. KCP: can he be efficient and productive with the volume of shots he’s used to getting?
    e. MCW: not a shooter
    f. Saric: not a shooter

    • May 8, 20138:27 pm
      by oats

      Reply

      The NBA draft has a pretty solid history of making bad decisions. Terrence Ross at 8, Jimmer Fredette over Klay Thompson, the Morris twins over Kawhi Leonard, Ekpe Udoh at 6, Johnny Flynn at 6 over Curry, Joe Alexander and DJ Augustin over Brook Lopez… I can keep naming guys that were drafted ahead of their consensus position in the top 10 of pretty much every draft ever. I even skipped some where it turns out the team wasn’t that dumb, like the fact that no one seemed to have James Harden at 3 ahead of Evans, Rubio, and Curry. The point is the draft is a crap shoot, and any of those guys from the consensus top 6 could slide for any number of reasons. The most likely are Bennett’s injury keeping him from doing workouts or Oladipo’s lack of scoring ability when so many teams want a scoring wing. Plus, someone might just want a center, or they might fall in love with a big point guard while being afraid of Burke’s defense. That last one sounds really dumb to me, but taking Ekpe Udoh for his defense ahead of Monroe also sounded really dumb.
       

  • May 8, 20137:24 pm
    by FreeDreDrummond

    Reply

    i was somewhat intrigued by shabazz initially, he fills an obvious need, he was a big name in high school and there is some truth to the notion that ucla prospects usually dont meet expectations.  but after watching the draftexpress video i want no part of him.  hes selfish, only goes left, 

  • May 8, 20137:36 pm
    by FreeDreDrummond

    Reply

    i was somewhat intrigued by shabazz initially, he fills an obvious need, he was a big name in high school and there is some truth to the notion that ucla prospects usually dont meet expectations.  but after watching the draftexpress video i want no part of him.  hes selfish, not as good athletically as advertised, and there are character concerns.  hes a chucker next year for sure.  

    but dont forget that the pistons have capitalized the last few years on the stupidity of other nba lotto teams.  golden state passing on monroe for udoh?  last year with drummond.  isnt shabazz exactly the kind of player sacramento drafts every year?  i can totally picture shabazz, cousins and tyreke chucking their way to a top 5 pick again next year.

    but if we stay at 7 how about deal it to the clips for eric bledsoe since it looks like cp3 is resigning.  i have nightmares of dumars drafting zeller and claiming he nabbed, “the best available player”

    • May 8, 201310:47 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      I’d rather have four years of Zeller on a rookie deal than one of Bledsoe on a rookie deal.

    • May 9, 20138:14 am
      by Jens

      Reply

      Man , I have those nightmares as well! Zeller is going to be the bust of tis draft. I have NO CLUE what everybody sees in him. He is at best a poor man´s Tyler Hansbrough. Not as good as Tyler cause Cody is lacking the elevation. He even had trouble getting his shot off against athletic 4s or 5s in college! Like against Minnesota or Syracuse.
      This truly IS a nightmare scenario! 

  • May 8, 20137:55 pm
    by Hotep

    Reply

    I like Oladipo. I’d love to see a solid athletic wing defender parred with Dre.

    • May 8, 20138:21 pm
      by Sop

      Reply

      please read my post above and shut up about HomeDepot. We only have chance to draft him if we get a top three pick and picking him over Porter, McLemore or Noel would be crazy.
       

      • May 8, 20138:29 pm
        by oats

        Reply

        I really think you are wrong about that. Not that you are definitely wrong, but I really don’t see how it’s a certainty than any single player outside of those top 3 guys will be gone. See my response to you above and shut up.
         
        (Note: I wouldn’t normally tell you to shut up, but you’ve clearly decided that’s a fair way to respond to someone who disagrees with you)

      • May 9, 20138:23 am
        by Jens

        Reply

        Actually I was quite optimistic on Oladipo falling to us until yesterday. In Chad Fords lottery mock draft the teams taking Oladipo ahead of us would be Charlotte (Odds they get to the top3 and can pick Noel or McLemore instead are pretty good) and Phoenix (also decent chance the get into the top3 and pick Noel or McLemore otherwise Bennett). Cleveland will take Porter, Orlando either Noel,McLemore or Burke. New Orleans should take Burke. Sacramento had Muhammad, so chances are good either Bennett or Oladipo ould be there.
        Problem is, he changed that to Sacramento taking Bennett now, which leads us to having the choice between Muhammad or McCollum. CHOKE! 

  • May 8, 20139:50 pm
    by Aaron

    Reply

    I wouldnt freak out yet,  You have to see how the Lottery pans out and almost count on The Kings Bobcats and Wiz doin something stupid.  As cliche as it sounds,  “let the draft come to you”  there is gonna be all kind of speculation between now and then so no need to flip out.

  • May 8, 20139:53 pm
    by Corey

    Reply

    Good thought on trading our pick for Eric bledsoe. If the top guys are gone when we pick at 7 or 8, I’d trade it for Bledsoe. And the clips might want to- if they resign Paul, they have to trade Blesoe before they have to pay him. We could afford to pay him, so that would work out.

    • May 8, 201310:42 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      Ugh, that’s an awful idea. Bledsoe may be a good get, but he’s not worth a top ten draft pick. If the Pistons want him that much, sign him next offseason.

  • May 8, 201310:25 pm
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    Hahahaha@ Comments about Shabazz

    From people that admitt they didn’t see him play or they point to NBA draftexpress videos as there everything.

    Call him a ball-hog but most of his shot attempts came in the half-court offense designed for him to score …

    His ast was very poor, but he wasn’t put in position as the passer he was put in position as the finisher …Go see Durant College ast numbers 

    He’s not a Great athlete… But he’s a good athlete…

    Joe Johnson and Loul Deng… come to mind

    Does he have to work on his game? yes, do he have get better on defense? yes…but you are a fool if you don’t think he is worth the 7 pick in the draft… there are no perfect players in this draft…

    • May 9, 201312:52 am
      by oats

      Reply

      Why is it that everyone who disagrees with you on Shabazz didn’t watch him play? I told you before I watched him play in 6 games. I also don’t rely on draft express, which should be obvious by how much I disagree with them. The most obvious example is that I’ve argued for Kentavious Caldwell Pope as the 7th guy in the draft despite Draft Express having him down at 24. I could give a long list of examples of how much I disagree with Draft Express, but I will say that I think they are generally pretty good at what they do.
       
      Durant was a much better player than Shabazz. If Muhammad could score like that I wouldn’t give two craps about his assists. He doesn’t. Durant also had 1.3 assists a game versus Muhammad’s .8. Durant actually looked like he was willing to pass but knew he was supposed to shoot a lot, Shabazz looks like he’s out to get his. Very different scenario.
       
      The offense may have been designed to get him to score, but it wasn’t designed for him to shoot when double or triple teamed. He had some talented team mates to take that pressure off him, but Shabazz often looked to shoot it anyways. Again, if he was more than an average efficiency scorer I probably wouldn’t care so much. He is very average though.
       
      I know there are no perfect players in this draft. Heck, that top 6 has tons of holes and reasons to be worried about all of them. That’s not the point. I don’t think he’s just “not perfect”, I think he’s a mediocre talent. Not only do I think he’s not worth the 7th pick, I don’t think he’s worth a lottery pick. I don’t have a problem with taking him around 12 because there aren’t 14 guys worth being a lottery pick in this draft, but I just don’t think the value in this draft is in favor of taking Muhammad when prospects with pretty much identical ratings will be available after the lottery. A couple of those guys I’d even prefer to Muhammad at 7.

      • May 9, 20139:06 am
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        “”Why is it that everyone who disagrees with you on Shabazz didn’t watch him play? I told you before I watched him play in 6 games. I also don’t rely on draft express, which should be obvious by how much I disagree with them. The most obvious example is that I’ve argued for Kentavious Caldwell Pope as the 7th guy in the draft despite Draft Express having him down at 24. I could give a long list of examples of how much I disagree with Draft Express, but I will say that I think they are generally pretty good at what they do.”"

        1. If you seen him play then im not referring to you. I was very clear, People saying he was a ball-hog, black-hole, selfish ect… not true, even the walking off the court situation after his teammate hit the game winner, one moment of immaturity does not make him selfish. People that say that can’t score in a various way, He can shoot the 3, Mid-range, post-up, and score in the paint. I dont care that you favor pope over Shabazz my thing is be, and thats not just you its anyone.
         
        “”Durant was a much better player than Shabazz. If Muhammad could score like that I wouldn’t give two craps about his assists. He doesn’t. Durant also had 1.3 assists a game versus Muhammad’s .8. Durant actually looked like he was willing to pass but knew he was supposed to shoot a lot, Shabazz looks like he’s out to get his. Very different scenario.”"

        2. Im not saying Shabazz shouldnt have passed more or couldnt have passed more, Im saying he was not put in position as a creater of offense for other. He was put in position as a scorer. He was not the main ball-hander, that fact that so little of his offense came in ISO should show that. And im not comparing Durant to Shabazz on the talent level, but on the idea that they were finishers in college not creator. You watch him for 6 games, how can you argue against that?

        “”The offense may have been designed to get him to score, but it wasn’t designed for him to shoot when double or triple teamed. He had some talented team mates to take that pressure off him, but Shabazz often looked to shoot it anyways. Again, if he was more than an average efficiency scorer I probably wouldn’t care so much. He is very average though.”"

        3. SIGH…. SHABAZZ was FRESHMAN, 19-20 whatever…still a freshman…If your coach tell you to shoot and we need your scoring you’ll tend to play towards your strengthens. Even the idea that you are saying he took bad shots, which hurt his efficiency. So you dont think on the next level, a good caoch and good teammates can help him in that area?
         
        “”I know there are no perfect players in this draft. Heck, that top 6 has tons of holes and reasons to be worried about all of them. That’s not the point. I don’t think he’s just “not perfect”, I think he’s a mediocre talent. Not only do I think he’s not worth the 7th pick, I don’t think he’s worth a lottery pick. I don’t have a problem with taking him around 12 because there aren’t 14 guys worth being a lottery pick in this draft, but I just don’t think the value in this draft is in favor of taking Muhammad when prospects with pretty much identical ratings will be available after the lottery. A couple of those guys I’d even prefer to Muhammad at 7.”"

        We disagree, I believe its no difference in taking Mclemore at 1 or taking Shabazz at 7. We tend to look at things emotionally and believe what the media tells us.  This draft is a draft of need players. Thats why Most Mocks do not have Pope in the lottery, but you think he is lottery worthy, Thats why a guy like Giannas started as 2nd rd prospect, now they are saying he is becoming a potential lottery pick, that was theres no clear cut number 1 pick in the draft. Shabazz is the best combination of Need, Ready to play talent, and future potential…. that might still be on the board, and im going to be honest after the combine all of you guys that dont like Shabazz, you might not have to worry about it, because his stock is liekly to rise

        • May 9, 20139:30 am
          by G

          Reply

          For the record, I watched 2 whole games, plus the highlights & lowlights on youtube. One was a mid-season game, I can’t remember the opponent (prolly Cal or Oregon), and the other was the tournament game. I thought both games were representative of the good & bad Shabazz has to offer.

          To be honest, if the top 6 are gone I really don’t have a better option than Shabazz. KCP is seems more athletic & is a better defender. I’d give KCP a bit of an edge, but I couldn’t really kill the Pistons for drafting Shabazz at 7. I just don’t like it.

          That said, if Shabazz becomes a Piston I’ll hop on your bandwagon & root for Shabazz to replicate the phenomenal shooting he started the season with, and hopefully to find some defense. 

          • May 9, 201310:53 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            I know we’ve beaten this horse dead and the combine hasnt even started yet

            So Fair enough, and i feel the same way about Porter.

            I really dont like his passive-agrressive approach to the game.

            But i’d jump right on that bandwagon, IF we ended up with him

        • May 9, 20139:42 am
          by G

          Reply

          Curious, since you’re the main Shabazz slappy here – what would you say his standout highlight is? For example, Burke’s would be the threes he hit over Kansas and the block on Siva in the title game. Oladipo’s is probably that missed alley-oop, Noel’s would be the block-fest at Ole Miss, McLemore’s is probably the inbounds play vs. Michigan… What’s Shabazz’s play? Honestly curious.

  • May 8, 201310:28 pm
    by joe

    Reply

    I know the Zen Master is advising the Pistons on the next Head Coach position but could he help them pick next Kobe or Micheal Jordan out the draft. Who know better than him, since he than coach two of the greatest players of all time.

    • May 8, 201310:44 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      If there is a Kobe/Jordan in this draft, we already know that it is McLemore. I doubt he will come anywhere close to those levels, but he probably has the most upside of anyone in the draft and he is the most stylistically similar to them of the good prospects.

    • May 9, 20138:32 am
      by G

      Reply

      Funny you should say that, since Jackson wasn’t with the Bulls when they drafted Jordan, nor was he with LA when they traded for the rights to Kobe.

    • May 9, 20138:43 am
      by G

      Reply

      And both players were picked in 2 of the deepest drafts ever.

  • May 8, 201310:59 pm
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    MClemore isnt even better than Beal …but in this draft he is a sexy pick

    Shabazz physically and I know you guys hate when I say this…gives him an advantage over ever perimter player in the draft.

    And he was not even  in his best physical condition… 

    • May 9, 20131:09 am
      by oats

      Reply

      First of all, Beal was the third pick in a deeper draft last year. McLemore would have most likely gone 4th last year, after Beal and ahead of Waiters. Having a lower rating than Beal is not exactly an insult to McLemore. If the point is that this draft class is weaker than last year’s, well, everyone agrees with that.
       
      We hate you bringing up Shabazz’s build/athletic ability because he makes exactly no use of it. The size/athletic skills usually relate to some sort of statistical impact. Rebounding, steals, blocks, or shooting at the hoop are all pretty reliable means of identifying guys who have some sort of physical advantage.
       
      Shabazz’s rebounding numbers are sub par for a SF, and he was clearly a SF at UCLA. Yeah, his offensive rebounding numbers are good, but that’s because he is much closer to the hoop on a typical play than just about any other perimeter player in college. It’s symptomatic of part of his problem, that he relies heavily on a part of his game that doesn’t look like it will translate to the next level. That’s it, he just is close to the hoop. If it meant he was good on the boards he’d be a solid over all rebounder instead of a poor one.
       
      What about the rest of it then. Shabazz shot 46% on 2 point attempts, a number far too low for a guy that likes to plays from the free throw line in as much as he plays. He gets .7 steals, which is really alarming. Steals are often the best way to measure size/athletic abilities, and Muhammad stinks at it. Maybe if he blocked shots I’d give him a pass on that, but .1 blocks a game is actually so low it is also concerning. Remember, this is a guy with a length advantage on most of the players he is defending so he should get more than that without even jumping.
       
      So, tell me, what good is that supposed physical advantage if he never uses it anyways?

  • May 8, 201311:08 pm
    by joe

    Reply

    I feel if Dumars bring in Shabazz and he impress them enough to be draft at #7, i’m fine with that, because just as fan’s can over look Oladipo lack of production on the offense end, we shouldn’t be quick to judge Shabazz, until we actually see what he can do in the NBA. One dissatisfying year at UCLA shouldn’t determine Shabazz career, in my opinion, it’s no different than Drummond’s year at Connecticut.

  • May 8, 201311:48 pm
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    Also about his slump… that everyone loves to talk about..

    People forget that Shabazz did not play organized basketball for almost 6 months leading into the season… Because of NCAA investigation and injuries… Most of the season he played outside of his normal playing weight… And conditioning and his legs became an issue

    The guy had 14 games of 20 or more ppg…..that’s almost half of the games he started …they went 12-2 in those games …

    In advance 40 min stats …he ranked 16th in the nation scoring in the top 100 …

    So heres the choice and be rational…and unbias … 
    His first 25 games he averaged 18ppg 46%FG and 45% for 3′s 35/78 ….

    Or

    The player in the last 7 games (small sample)

    That averaged 16ppg 38%FG and 17% for 3s 5/28 ….

    I believe he is more of the player in the first 25 games, that get play or practice with his team, that was not even in healthy for most of the season…

    • May 9, 20132:04 am
      by oats

      Reply

      I think the answer is neither. I think he came in to the season a little late and team’s didn’t have much to help them prepare for Shabazz other than his rep prior to getting to college. That rep was good athlete, bad shooter. They left him alone for 3s  early on and didn’t really start to defend him out there until late in the season. He started out averaging 19.6 points on 54.8% shooting, including 48.3% on 3s in a small sample. The final 22 games he put up 17.1 points on 41.6% shooting and 33.8% on 3s. I really do think those final 22 games are more indicative of his production than his first 10. The real answer is he probably belongs in the middle somewhere. His middle 10 games was about 17.5 points, 42% shooting, and 38% on 3s. I think those 3 point numbers are still higher than I think his shooting ability would normally dictate, but all in all not a terrible guess of what kind of player he was. Those numbers are similar to his season average as well. The problem is that his season average is decidedly mediocre at scoring efficiency. The 3 point shooting is ok, but he took so few of them and his total field goal percentage is low enough that he’s just a mediocre but high volume scorer.
       
      I’ll be honest, I don’t really buy in to the freshman wall that much. We’re talking what, a dozen more games than they played in high school? That’s just not that huge of a work load increase. This isn’t like a guy getting in to NBA and going from 32 games to 82 games, and all of sudden having to worry about back to backs and other things they’d never faced before. I’ll agree the longer season probably effects them a bit, but not nearly enough to explain Shabazz’s terrible end to the season. Especially since the 6 months off should have had more of a negative impact on the start of the season because he wasn’t in game shape yet. That isn’t what happened, he was better those first 10 games. That’s why I’d consider the last 22 more indicative of him than the first 25.
       
      Again, if he had other actual NBA skills I’d be much higher on Shabazz. As I pointed out above, he did do well on the offensive glass but was below average for a small forward as a total rebounder. To me that sounds like a guy who plays closer to the rim than a typical perimeter player and not a guy who is actually a good rebounder, and that assessment happens to match the eye test quite well. If he switches to shooting guard he will project as a solid rebounder for that position, but we’re still talking pretty average. Assists, steals, and blocks are way below average. He scored a decent amount, but was pretty average in efficiency and it makes sense that he’d have that efficiency drop even farther on the next level. Maybe average rebounding, at best average scoring efficiency, and terrible at everything else adds up to a pretty crappy top 10 draft pick.

      • May 9, 20139:41 am
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        @OATS you do way too much typing…

        I love it…

        In 6 games in December he averaged 22ppg 15shot attempts 53%FG 48% for 3′s

        If you combine November, January, and February he played 19 games
        Averaged 17ppg 13.5 44%FG and 42% for 3′s ….

        In March 7 games he averged 16ppg 15.5 shot attempts 38%FG 18% for 3′s ….

        So if you take away his best month in December and take away his worst month in March and call it an aberration…In math its called finding the “Median”

        you can make stats look like anything, was the point of that lesson. I showed you his first 25 games, and you decided pick him apart after 10 games.

        Your boy POPE was a streaky shooter all year, took more 3′s than FG attempts, you see a lottery pick but everyone else sees a guy that settled for the 3 ball.

        • May 9, 201310:57 am
          by G

          Reply

          Instead of chucking the outliers, why not try to find an explanation for why they exist?

          • May 9, 201311:08 am
            by tarsier

            Furthermore, if outliers are ever more than 10% of your sample, you’re almost certainly doing something wrong.

            If someone averages about 10 ppg and then has a 60 point game, that is an outlier. Or if he averages 25 ppg and then has a 3 point game. A gradual trend of the numbers over the course of the season does not qualify the beginning and end as outliers.

          • May 9, 201311:20 am
            by G

            Exactly. And eliminating the first & last month of the season isn’t how you find the median.

          • May 9, 201312:01 pm
            by tarsier

            True, but in this case, it actually does yield a result close to the median.

          • May 9, 201312:12 pm
            by G

            The way to calculate median would be to organize his games best to worst and grab the middle one. Shooting-wise, the middle game is the 1/3/13 game vs. Cal. Game Score-wise (although I’m not sure I did it right), the middle game is 2/9/13 vs. Wash St.

          • May 9, 201312:20 pm
            by G

            Another thing you can do is to combine median with avg and take an average of the median 5 games. In those 5 games he shot .433/.375/.740 for an average of 16.8 ppg.

            I’d expect the 3PT numbers to drop at least a little, given the added distance, but that median average projects him as an average shooter. 

          • May 9, 20131:01 pm
            by tarsier

            Well, finding a median for percentages is all different kinds of stupid. Reason being that how well a guy shoots in any given game is only very relevant if he shot a bunch of times.

            With three point shooting especially, it would be easy to have a median of either 0% or 50% if you don’t shoot a ton of threes. It’s the odd game here or there when you took 5-10 attempts that really goes a long way to showing how competent you are.

            If a guy takes 12-16 shots every game, then looking at a median could be reasonable. But it is not a measure intended to look at weighted samples.

          • May 9, 20131:28 pm
            by G

            I agree, which is why I like the average of the median 5 games (which were ranked by TS%). It also seemed to be pretty representative of what I thought it would be.

            I could also do a median average by game score, which comes to… .405/.400/.823, 16.8 ppg and a .486 TS%. Game score factors in rebounds, steals, assists and the like. His averages there were 7.6 rebs, 1.4 apg, 0.8 stl, & 1.4 tov. 

          • May 9, 20132:21 pm
            by I HATE FRANK

            The “median” is the “middle” value in the list of numbers.

            Next, I said in the first 25 games he averages blah,blah,blah…. And he struggled in the last 7 games …

            The Question was which do you believe represents who he really is more….

            OATS…then said he only players well in the first 10 games and dropped off in the last 22 games….

            So my reply to that was … Throw out his best stretch of games, and throw out his worst sent of games …. and lets see what he looks like….

            Then I also said, number can be flipped and used anyway you want…. If you look at his month to month  performances…he was always around 44%from field and over 40% for 3′s …. he only had one terrible shooting month in March… I dont understand whats so hard get…

          • May 9, 20132:41 pm
            by G

            You arranged your numbers chronologically, not by value. It’s essentially arranging a set of numbers randomly and then chopping off the top & bottom and saying “there’s your median”.

            I placed a value on each game he played, arranged the games by that value & then averaged the middle 5 games. THAT is how you establish a median. 

          • May 9, 20132:47 pm
            by G

            The purpose of a median is to avoid your data being skewed by TRUE outliers. If you arrange your data chronologically rather than by value, you’re potentially including outliers instead of excluding them.

          • May 9, 20134:21 pm
            by MIKEYDE248

            One thing that nobody really brought into play was which teams he had good games against and which games he had bad games against.  It’s pretty easy to have a good game against an easy opponent.

            If the Pistons were to play Charlotte & Washington all year, we would have thought that they were bound to win a championship.

          • May 9, 20134:59 pm
            by G

            The strength of opponent thing is hard to measure in college. It really depends on what kind of night you catch them on, who’s got home court, what your match-up is like, etc. 

            How about this – KCP was responsible for over 30% of his team’s offense. That’s a ridiculous stat. ‘Melo was the closest at just under 29%, and the next guy after him is Durant at 27%… KCP scored 18.5 ppg, the next best guy scored 7.9. That’s like ‘Melo’s next best teammate being Ray Felton.

            In contrast Shabazz was responsible for 24% of his team’s offense. Still a healthy number, but he had more help. Shabazz scored 17.9 ppg, Adams scored 15.3, Wear had 10.9 and Anderson had 9.7. I don’t blame Muhammad for having better teammates, but the fact that KCP was playing with scrubs has to be taken into consideration.

          • May 10, 20139:28 am
            by MIKEYDE248

            I was just trying to say that most teams schedule their easy non-conference games at the beginning of the season and that’s when Shabazz seemed to be playing his best.  So his first 10 games might be over inflated.

          • May 10, 20132:18 pm
            by G

            Yeah, but Shabazz played in a tougher conference than KCP, so that about evens out. I think the lack of a #2 scorer for KCP is more pertinent.

  • May 9, 201312:00 am
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    *that did not get to play is his team and ect…

  • May 9, 201312:10 am
    by frankie d

    Reply

    just say no to shabazz.
    he’s the kind of player you can get anywhere throughout the draft.  the idea that you’d spend a lottery pick on a player like him, because he was hyped coming out of high school…well, sorry, but that just doesn’t cut it.
    i’d rather draft a guy like tony snell somewhere in the second round and figure that he’s got enough of a chance to become the player teams hope muhammad will become.
    check their stats.  while snell is a junior and that has to be considered, his numbers are actually better, pretty much across the board.  there are a couple of things he does better – he rebounds better and has a slightly better fg % – but otherwise, snell’s numbers are simply better.
    he is a guy who projects to be an nba caliber catch and shoot guy and the numbers simply bear that out.  and he also looks the part of a granger-like catch and shoot deep threat.
    and defensively, snell looks like a guy who could end up being a better contributor over the long run.  he’s taller, longer (i believe) and he looks like a quicker, smoother athlete.
    go ahead and draft muhammad in the top ten.  i’d bet that a snell will have as good a career, or a better career.
    and i’m not only talking about the hard cold numbers, or looking at youtube videos, i’m talking about watching both guys play several games, each.  
    muhammad has to be the most overrated player coming out of high school and college that i’ve ever seen.   
    no thanks.  if i wanted a catch and shoot 3 point threat, who could probably become a good defender, i’d pass on muhammad and draft snell in the second round. 

    • May 9, 201312:15 am
      by I HATE FRANK

      Reply

      who in their right mind passes on a lottery guy that fills a need in favor or a projected 2nd pick? especially when you do not know for sure he’ll be there?

      • May 9, 201312:45 am
        by frankie d

        Reply

        who cares if it is a “lottery pick”?
        there have been plenty of “lottery picks? who haven’t done jack in the nba, while the league is full of second round picks that have performed as well or better than guys who were drafted in the lottery. 

        • May 9, 20139:44 am
          by I HATE FRANK

          Reply

          I guarantee more lottery guys have loner more sucessful NBA careers than 2nd rd prospects…

          SMH…this is a silly arguement…

          I’d rather you say, we should really draft him in the 2nd round, because he’s be a steal

    • May 9, 20133:24 am
      by oats

      Reply

      @ frankie d. I know Snell is your boy, but I think you’re off base on this one. No rebounds, steals, or blocks screams pedestrian athlete. I know Muhammad doesn’t get steals or blocks either, but at least he rebounds somewhat. Snell missing on all of the athletic stats suggests a guy that will struggle to make a roster. Muhammad’s at least got something to suggest he is athletic enough to make a rotation. I really think Snell is not one of the top 40 prospects in the draft, and he’d really need to exceed expectations to ever be a rotation guy. Muhammad is a virtual lock for a rotation. I get not liking that from a top 10 pick, but that still makes more sense to me than hinging a draft strategy on a guy as unlikely to be a contributor as Snell is.

      • May 9, 20132:23 pm
        by frankie d

        Reply

        i think snell and muhammad are fairly similar, in terms of their athletic ability.
        i guess the bottom line is that i just don’t think that what muhammad brings to the court is anything special.  i just think that what he does – score in a fairly ineffiecient  way – is something that teams have traditionally been able to find anywhere in the draft.  all the way to the tail end of the second round.  
        if you look at teams throughout the league, you’ll see plenty of second round choices coming off benches to shoot 3′s.  
        imho, that is the kind of player that muhammad – and snell – will end up being.
        and when i compare the two, either with my own eyeballs or through their stats, snell is as good or a superior player.
        one damning stat on muhammad was his assist per possession ratio which was something like 79 of 81  of the draftexpress 100.  his ratio is .05.  snell’s, on the other hand, is  a very good .25. that indicates an ability to see the floor even while getting your own shots.   the video noted that guys like michael beasly and al thornton had similarly bad numbers as muhammad.  snell’s catch and shoot numbers are also one of the country’s best while muhammad’s are fairly pedestrian.
        i do agree that it is likely that snell will probably be drafted somewhere around 35-45, but i think that whoever gets him will be pleasantly surprised.  and instead of using a lottery pick on someone like muhammad, i’d be more inclined to gamble on someone like snell.

        • May 9, 20135:04 pm
          by oats

          Reply

          I think you are underselling Muhammad’s ability to hit mid range curls, a shot that could be the staple of his game. I’d bet against it, but he has an outside chance of developing a Rip Hamilton type of game eventually. Throw in that his defensive potential is still higher than Snell’s even if it’s not that great, and I’d say you are reaching too much on this one.
           
          I get the eye test suggests Snell is a decent enough athlete, but he hasn’t shown an ability to use that athleticism effectively. Either the eye test is leading you astray and Snell is not as athletic as he appears, or he has struggled to make use of that athleticism in a meaningful way. DaJuan Summers looks the part of an NBA athlete, but he never managed to translate that athleticism effectively in to actual production. Just saying that comparison rings true for me, I really do think Snell is a lot like Summers as a prospect. He’s a bit smaller and a bit quicker, but it really does feel about right. 

          • May 9, 20136:08 pm
            by frankie d

            muhammad could become that type of mid-range sniper that rip was, but i don’t think he has that little bit of quickness that a guy needs to work in that area.  i don’t think you have to be especially fast or even tony parker quick, but i think you just need that little burst that lets you get separation on your shot.  there are so many players swiping and swatting at shots in that area that it takes a special kind of quickness and skill to work there successfully.
            for instance, if stuckey had that skill and quickness, he’d be  unstoppable in that area.  sadly, he doesn’t seem to have that little burst – or the smarts to understand how to work that area – and he is who he is.
            the thing that shocked me about muhammad was how awkward he was in that midrange area.  i’d read all of this stuff about him being an explosive athlete and when i saw him play – and i saw a bunch of his games, as i live in pac-12 country – he looked like a guy who was just used to bullying smaller players in the lane and he didn’t have the quickness or finesse to really work that area with any real success.  he worked hard and he was very aggressive, but that accounted for whatever success he had in the mid-range, and i don’t think he’ll be able to do that kind of thing at the next level.
            summers is an interesting comparison.  i think there is a big difference between the two players, however.  summers’ problem, to a degree, was that he was too versatile.  he was a big guy who could handle the ball, get to the rim and still hit a 3 point shot.   there was always confusion as to exactly what type of player he was going to be, and exactly how he could contribute to a team.  heck, i don’t think summers really knew enough about himself to be able to adequately define himself.
            with snell, he’s going to be looked at as a specialist.  snell is going to be looked at as a guy who will be able to come in, catch and shoot 3′s and hopefully develop into a competent defender.  there won’t be any confusion about whether he is a 4 or a 3 or even a jumbo 2, as there was with summers.  he’s a wing who shoots from deep and that kind of certainty about his role, will help him, imho.  he’ll be expected to fill a roster hole and a team won’t go through any confusion as to where he might or might not fit in.
            again, i’m not saying he’s going to be an all star.  i’m not saying that he is the next ray allen.  i just don’t think there is much distance between a guy like muhammad and snell, certainly not enough of a difference to make muhammad a top ten pick, while snell gets picked around 35-45.
            with guys like mclemore and even caldwell-pope, their next-tier athleticism can account for that kind of differential.   both of those guys, imho, are clearly better athletes than  snell.  or muhammad.  and you might draft those two guys higher – in the lottery – with the hope that their athletic advantages will allow their ceiling to be a bit higher.
            but if you look at the numbers – apart from any consideration of how he actually looks on the court – snell’s numbers – overall – are either better than lots of  the guys slated to be picked above him – mclemore, caldwell-pope, muhammad, goodwin, crabbe – or so close as to be almost indistinguishable.  the rebounding is bad, but if he’s a 2, primarily, that won’t matter that much.  his assist/TO and usage numbers on assists are excellent and probably the best of any of the aforementioned.  that ability to pass, imho, is much more important in a SG than rebounding.
            (actually, i can’t believe i just wrote that, because a great rebounding guard is like having a beautiful girlfriend who is a great cook, an incredible combo.  but the assists are just a wee bit more important, imho.)
            so if i’m looking for that type of player and mclemore and maybe caldwell-pope are off the board, i would explore other positions of need with my higher pick and look at drafting a guy like snell later. 

          • May 9, 20136:21 pm
            by frankie d

            btw, i think that snell has, up to this point, used his athleticism to become one of the best catch and shoot players in the country.  he is really very good at using his quickness and length to work screens and get open for his long range shots.  he gets open a lot, and it’s not because guys don’t guard him.  he works hard at it.

    • May 9, 201311:15 am
      by tarsier

      Reply

      The Pistons have two highly hyped high school players who underwhelmed in college. Turning out like Knight is the more likely outcome for such a guy. But turning out like Drummond is at least a possibility.

      That fact, and the total dearth of exciting prospects past the top 6, keep Shabazz in the conversation at 7th on the draft board. But I really hope that conversation becomes irrelevant. 

  • May 9, 201312:44 am
    by Chris N

    Reply

    He didn’t say comic character, he said noise effect.  Think “ka-pow!” or “Blamo!”  There’s no sound effect in comics that sounds like Shabazz much less Shabazz Muhammad.  
     

    • May 9, 20133:40 am
      by oats

      Reply

      Kaschow, Dzof, Karaka-Bam, Thoom, Thwip, Pow, Shabazz…
       
      I don’t know. I think if I gave that list to someone with little knowledge of either comics or college basketball and told them one of those is the name of a basketball player, I’m betting a couple of them guess incorrectly. I’d bet Kaschow gets at least a few votes, and maybe one of them thinks Pow is the correct spelling of that guy that plays with Kobe. That leads some credence to the comics sound effects idea at the very least. If I was doing a comic book that involved some sort of magic I’d definitely push for Shabazz as a sound effect for a spell going off, or maybe use it for some kind of ray gun in a really pulpy sci-fi comic. You really couldn’t see a steam punk machine going “Clink-Klunk-BZZRT-Shabazz”? Admittedly that’s because that idea is hilarious to me, but that still counts in my opinion.

    • May 9, 20138:06 am
      by tarsier

      Reply

      Of all the things to pick apart…

      Why the heck to you care if the name makes someone think of a sound effect? 

  • May 9, 20132:05 am
    by Richard

    Reply

    I say just let Middleton take over SF.. He played well when he finally got mins.. The real focus this offseason is the shooting guard spot.. look into FA for that resign Calderón sign OJ and have BK get Six man mins.. Or BK at the 2 Brandon Jennings at point.. Draft Best available and call it a night.. Also Trade Stuckey to Bucks For Jennings since Pistons have opton to pay him half of what they owe him. Maybe have Charlie play it too to build trade value..

  • May 9, 20134:21 am
    by FireFrank

    Reply

    Shabazz future Hof

    • May 9, 20138:11 am
      by tarsier

      Reply

      The worst argument yet.

      I could just as easily say “Steven Adams future HOF” 

  • May 9, 20138:32 am
    by Aaron

    Reply

    Opinions are like armpits and assholes, everyone has a few of them HAHAHAHA

  • May 9, 20138:35 am
    by ryan

    Reply

    There are a few things I’m certain of this off season. First I don’t want Trey Burke, Josh Smith or Kevin Martin at all. Second we need to get better but even more than that we need to not repeat 2009 (which Smith and Martin would represent, Trey Burke is Mateen Cleaves version 4.0).

    So with that in mind the best option I see is have a clear draft day plan targeting Victor Oladipo. If he gets taken before we pick (assuming we’re at seven) then we should try to trade down Jeff Withey, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Dennis Schroeder, Steven Adams, Allen Crabbe and Archie Goodwin are all interesting prospects that we could likely draft later on. A swap with Atlanta for 17 and 18 or OKC for 29 and 32 could probably work out for both teams.

    Then we really need to work with the Jazz to set up a sign and trade for Paul Millsap. He’s exactly the type of versatile veteran leader we need to add. If we add him to the front court without giving up Jonas Jerebko then we should be really set with bigs. You’ve got Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Millsap all playing big minutes with Jerebko as a very nice back up option.

    If we added a couple of decent guards or maybe got OKC to throw in Jeremy Lamb we’d be set.

    • May 9, 20138:54 am
      by G

      Reply

      Disagree with the Burke-Cleaves comparison. Cleaves’ problem was he didn’t have a shot, Burke does. And Burke is more athletic than Cleaves was.

      • May 9, 20138:59 am
        by ryan

        Reply

        Cleaves also wasn’t a midget and Burke didn’t win the national title. My point is that they both have inflated values playing in state and have serious flaws that limit their greatness to college.

        What do you think of having Paul Millsap on our roster?

        • May 9, 20139:13 am
          by G

          Reply

          Cleaves played all 4 years, getting the championship his senior season. MSU didn’t even make an Elite 8 until Cleaves’ junior year when they lost in the Final Four. Cleaves was about 2 inches taller than Burke, which I think Burke’s length & athleticism easily overcome. 

          What do I think about Millsap? He’d either have to come off the bench or either Drummond or Monroe would. He’d be great, but way too expensive for a bench player. You absolutely can’t put him at the 3 the way you can with Josh Smith, and I’m not crazy about him either. 

          • May 9, 20139:40 am
            by ryan

            He’s ideally a four that’s for sure. I just love his tough nosed attitude and the way he’s grown through out his career. He’s the opposite of Josh Smith because he seems to maximize his talent.

            I really don’t see very many attractive options out there to spend the cap space on. You?
             

          • May 9, 20139:49 am
            by G

            Problem with Millsap is he’s a questionable defender. I’d rather have Smith, except he’ll cost more than he’s worth.

            I wouldn’t mind making an offer on Jeff Teague to see if the Pistons could pull him away from Atlanta. If not, they should make Calderon an offer. Then maybe get Dorell Wright as a wing and Speights as a backup big, front load the contracts & wait for next summer which is MUCH better for free agency.

            The Pistons face the same problem they did in 2009 – plenty of cap space in a bad year. If they don’t amnesty Charlie V or get rid of Stuckey, they’ve got both of those contracts coming off the books next summer. If they structure the contracts properly they should have plenty of space next year, even with a Monroe extension.

          • May 9, 201311:46 am
            by ryan

            I value Millsap way, way more than Smith because of the brains factor.
            I like Speights as a back up big man for sure. He’s a guy that could definitely help. What’s the story with Dorrell Wright nothing about him stands out to me.

            I like the idea of setting up contracts to be players next year more than this year. If we draft well and add one quality free agent we should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs next year thus giving Michael Jordan a shitty pick. Then summer of 2014 we add one more piece and start rolling with the big boys.

          • May 9, 20131:05 pm
            by tarsier

            The deal with Wright is that he had a total breakout season a year ago. It may have been a fluke, but it may not have been. Now he had a weak contract year, so he should be available on the cheap.

            Worst case scenario, he’s a not particularly great player who would be paid about right. Best case scenario, he rediscovers some of the magic he played with in GS and becomes a pretty solid role player on a steal of a contract.

            That’s the kind of opportunity I want the Pistons to pursue. 

          • May 9, 20133:57 pm
            by G

            Wright is a 3 & D type guy. He’s a little more varied in his offense than that, but he’s basically catch & shoot. He makes threes at an above average rate & is a lengthy defender. He’s not as good on defense as Iggy or even a guy like Corey Brewer, but I think his skill set fits better with what the Pistons have than Brewer’s does. I think he could be had for cheaper than he’s worth, like tarsier said.

          • May 9, 20134:49 pm
            by frankie d

            mateen cleaves dreams about being the kind of shooter that burke is.  when you look at college PGs who fail in the nba, the lack of a consistent shot is almost always the difference between a guy being able to at least become a valuable rotation player and a guy bouncing back and forth between europe and the d-league.
            cleaves was a horrible shooter.  burke is a good/very good shooter and that difference alone makes any comparison difficult to see.
            imho, they are totally different players and will have totally different career arcs in the nba.
            milsap is a nice player.  unfortunately, he is the kind of PF you will always be looking to upgrade if he is your starter.  he’s kind of too good to be a bench guy, but not quite a good enough defender at either the 3 or 4 to be happy with him as your starter. 
            that being said, i’d rather cut off my arm with a pen knife than watch josh smith play for my basketball team.  
            i get smith.  he is one of the league’s most versatile defenders.  he is one of the few guys who can guard lebron and also hold his own against a wide range of PFs, C’s and SF’s.  he is a true defensive force.
            but he gives so much of that positive stuff back on the offensive end because of his braindead play.  
            i don’t know if you could ever devise a metric that could truly calculate how much his horrid shot selection detracts from his all star defensive performance, but i get the feeling that it would be a close call as to whether,on balance, the team benefits when everything is taken into consideration.
            and dealing with that dynamic, as a fan, is just about the most aggravating thing one can go through.  
            i liked josh smith that one year mike woodson convinced him to shoot only 7 3 pointers all year, the fewest of his career.
            that, not so coincidentally, in my view, has been the most successful year atlanta has had since he jointed the team.  it also was his best season as a pro. 
            you’d think he’d be smart enough to understand the correlation and adjust his play accordingly. 

  • May 9, 20138:40 am
    by Aaron

    Reply

    Sorry in my attempt to be funny my son hit the keyboard and my whole post got screwed up.  Iam not one for excuses but its all a 4yr old fault. hahaha

    Anyhow what I meant was:

    “Opinions are like armpits and assholes everyone has a few and they all stink!”

  • May 9, 201310:24 am
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    @ Oats

    More than half of Pope FG attempts were 3 point attempts …

    And since you consider it a Strength, I thought i’d focus on it…

    In Pope first 17 games (that more than half the season) he shot 39/115 3′s 6.7 attempts = 34%

    In the next 5 games he shot 17/31 for 3′s 6.1 attempts = 55%

    In the final 10 games he shot 28/79 = 7.9 attempts 35%

    and you’d still take him in the lottery? His best shooting only came in a 5 game stretch

    • May 9, 20133:51 pm
      by oats

      Reply

      Lies, damn lies, and statistics. You really like parsing the data so tight that it becomes meaningless.
       
      Anywho, first 10 games he shot 35%, the next 10 were 37.7%, and the last 12 were 39.1%. To me that looks like the numbers of a guy figuring out what kind of 3s he should and shouldn’t be taking. I much prefer the trending up to the trending down of Muhammad. I’d also reward him for taking more 3s than 2s because that is smart basketball. 3 point shots have a higher expected points per play than 2 point shots. He also was quite efficient on his two point attempts, making 50.5% of them on the season. Your boy Muhammad, who happens to play closer to the rim, hit 46.3% of his 2 point attempts. KCP did all of that without the benefit of an actual point guard. The leading assist man on the team was at 2.8 assists, and the second best was at 2.1. Georgia had some of the worst ball movement in the country, which is part of why Pope was forced to rely far too much on pull up jumpers. I will admit that he played some really bad teams too, and that helped inflate his shooting numbers. Still, I wouldn’t expect his shooting numbers to decline that severely if he got a few talented team mates to take pressure off him and maybe throw him a pass for a catch and shoot attempt every now and then.
       
      That is just the intro since it isn’t the only thing I like about Pope. He’s also a much better athlete than Muhammad, and that is reflected in his stats. 7.1 rebounds and 2 steals shows him to be a much better athlete than Muhammad’s 5.2 rebounds and .7 steals. One of them projects as a capable defender, and it isn’t Muhammad. Pope also had 1.8 assists despite playing with crazy bad scrubs. The second leading scorer on that team put up less than 8 points a game for crying out loud. Georgia was a joke of a team, Pope was called on to shoot just as much as Muhammad was, and he still averaged more than twice as many assists as Muhammad. 
       
      I will say this, I think Pope is only a slightly better than average shooter, and only marginally better than Muhammad who I see as an average shooter. Pope is the top of my wishlist after the top 6 because he’s a more complete player. He’s just the best combination of shooting ability, athletic ability, and youth left after the top 6 are gone in my opinion. That’s who I’d gamble on. It’s not that I’m really high on him or anything. This is a 6 player draft and I’d be disappointed if the team misses on anyone outside of it.
       
      I actually think in a normal draft that Pope would be a fringe lottery talent, somewhere in the 11-16 range. I have Zeller, Len, and Karasev as clearly in that same range. Zeller and Len aren’t great fits so they go to the bottom of this tier. Karasev’s play outside of Eurocup has been much worse than in it despite the competition being higher in Eurocup, and he isn’t the same caliber of athlete as Pope so I have Pope edging him out. If McCollum is enough of a passer to be a point guard he’d join this group too, and if he also proves that his sweet shooting from this year was for real he’d jump over Pope entirely. The only reason I’m entertaining the idea of him entering this group is that Lillard and Curry have provided the precedence for small school guards being capable passers but not using that skill much because their team is better off with them jacking up shots. That’s it, no one else even looks like a fringe lottery pick in my opinion. These are all guys you take because you hope they exceed expectations. To be honest, their likely outcome is really similar to Muhammad’s, they are just more likely to exceed their most likely outcome than Muhammad’s group is.
       
      Just so you know, I have Muhammad leading the next tier of players, or at least for Detroit he does. That is the guys that don’t belong in the lottery but are clearly first rounders. Guys like Muhammad, Goodwin, Bullock, Rice, Crabbe, Dieng, Olynyk, and Withey are here. That’s only a partial list, but you get the idea. For a normal team I’d have Goodwin at the top because he is super young and a solid athlete, giving him the highest ceiling in the group. The problem is he can’t shoot the deep ball at all, and Detroit really needs wings that can hit that shot. Most teams should take Goodwin and hope he learns to be more efficient, but Detroit doesn’t have the luxury of praying that Goodwin will turn in to a legitimate shooter and they should move him well down the list because of it. That means I have Muhammad as 11th if McCollum can’t pass, and 12th if McCollum can. If I had to guess I’d bet against McCollum being able to play the point, so I’d say Muhammad is currently 11th on my draft board.

      • May 9, 20134:02 pm
        by oats

        Reply

        Also, if you think I’m long winded you should see what actually gets typed before I cut it down to the size of the actual post. This is me editing myself back. I don’t know if it’s a side effect from all those college papers or what, but I can churn out long word counts without much effort. I also think I’m a bit of a blowhard, it isn’t just you. Unfortunately that’s kind of just who I am, as should be evidenced by the fact that I just used an entire paragraph to say I type too much.

      • May 9, 20134:05 pm
        by G

        Reply

        Thought KCP had a similar profile to Kawhi Leonard except for the threes, and Leonard went with the 15th pick in a mediocre-looking draft.

        • May 9, 20135:04 pm
          by tarsier

          Reply

          I liked Leonard a bit better. But he also fell in the draft. Most big boards and mocks had him in the top 10 if I recall correctly.

          I remember he was the guy I wanted (well, that was really Valanciunas but I didn’t expect him to fall all the way to 8). When Knight was unexpectedly available at 8, he seemed like the right pick. But Leonard was a close second. I couldn’t believe he dropped all the way to 15.

          That said, I really didn’t want Klay. So what do I know? 

      • May 9, 20138:34 pm
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        LOL@ OATS … its not lies … he was HORRIBLE shooting 3 for most of the season, but he got a pass because he was a high value shooter.

        You can justify it if you want, but he is a value shooter …overall his shooting was not impressive… That’s why he is not considered a lottery pick…

        The only thing he did was really ob streaky shooting, and its great that “G” shared that he accounted for 30 percent of the offense,but so what his team didn’t have a winning record….

        First 17 games he was piss poor … He got hot for 5 games…and then when back to being piss poor….

        I don’t even care that you like him better than Shabazz, it bothers be that no one else is calling You ridiculous for thinking a poor mans Nick Young a worthy lottery pick 

        • May 9, 20138:39 pm
          by I HATE FRANK

          Reply

          I mean “volume” not value because I am sure most of his shots had no value what so ever …

           

          • May 10, 20138:28 am
            by G

            As far as shots having value, KCP was pretty good. TS% is a calculation of how efficient a player’s shooting is, factoring in FT’s and the added value of a three. Muhammad’s is average at .534, KCP’s is well above average at .586.

            If your argument is that Georgia was a bad team so KCP’s shots had no value, that’s pretty ridiculous. They needed him to score in order to win. 9 of Georgia’s 15 wins came when KCP scored at least 18 pts. They only won 2 games with him scoring less than 17. 

            The league is actually moving toward guys like this – athletic wings that defend well and shoot the 3 well (and often). 

          • May 10, 20136:10 pm
            by I HATE FRANK

            Not gonna pretend to completely understand TS% …but know it determined by  3 pointers,2pointers and FTs…

            Pope 50% for 2 pointers … 
            Pope only took 205, 2 pointers
            He averaged 7, 2 point attempts
            80% for FT

            Shabazz 46% for 2 pointers
            Shabazz took 350 2 point attempts
            Averaged 11 2 point attempts
            71% 

            The question I have and not really know … So I’m asking, do you think Pope two point efficeincy is strongly related so his smaller amount of 2 point attempts? ONLY COMPARING … Shabazz nearly took 150 more 2 point attempts, and also TS% how much to FTs play into it?

             
             

          • May 11, 20138:25 am
            by oats

            The problem with the traditional field goal percentage is that it doesn’t reward players for making 3 pointers or for getting to the line. Adding 3 point percentages helps that some, but that number misses out on the frequency of the shots and doesn’t tell you what kind of shooting night the guy actually had. When a guy gets sent to the line he is using a possession to get there, so if he misses those shots he wasted that possession, nor do those traditional percentages reward players for hitting an and 1. True shooting percentage is an attempt to fix that mistake. It is technically an estimation and not a percentage, but the theory is sound. The formula is Points/[2 x (FGA+ .44 x FTA)]. The .44 x free throw attempts looks a bit odd, but it makes sense. Most fouls give 2 free throws, but occasionally that isn’t right. There is the chance for the foul on a 3, but far more often it’s an and one or a technical free throw that causes the discrepancy. .44 x free throw attempts is a very close approximation of the number of possessions used to get those free throws. The point is that true shooting percentage tells you how much a guy scores based on the number of possessions he uses. G already gave you those numbers for Pope and Muhammad, and they say that Pope scores more points per possession used than Muhammad does.
             
            On to the other question. First of all, I would say that Pope’s reduced attempts on 2 point shots may have had something to do with his higher percentage on those shots. The reason is simple, he wasn’t as reliant on them and instead took them more when it was the shot the defense was giving him. Meanwhile Muhammad was actively hunting for those 2 point shots. I’d also say that if fewer 2 point attempts does factor in to Pope being better on 2s, that you’d also have to factor in Muhammad’s reduced 3 point attempts in putting up the same percentage on 3s. Pope took 120 more 3s than Muhammad, and the logic that suggests Pope is benefiting from favorable looks on 2s also dictates that Muhammad is benefiting from favorable looks on 3s. Both of those sound like reasonable conclusions to draw from their shooting numbers. The problem is that it is hard to actually prove either of those suppositions true even if my best guess is that they both are.

        • May 10, 20131:34 am
          by oats

          Reply

          The reason I called your numbers a lie is that you are not looking for reasonable stretches of games, but rather looking for a chance to find a few games to exclude to make your argument look sound. That’s the exact opposite of how stats are supposed to be used, and a perfect example of that quote above that you still seem to misunderstand. The point of that statement is that you can pull apart the data like crazy until it says what you want it to say. That is very clearly the way you use statistics. I use statistics only if they actually back up my position instead of trying to parse the data until it gives me what I want it to say. You are searching for an arbitrary spot to set your dividers so it will back you up. That’s why your splits are 17, 5, and 10, because that helped your point. I set it at 10, 10, and 12 because that’s a convenient approximation of a 1/3 of the season, so I can see a trend over a reasonable period of time.
           
          Sorry, but Pope is actually a value shooter, or at least he is relative to your boy. I say that because he happens to take shots that have a strong correlation to scoring more points. To criticize Pope for being a volume shooter and not a value shooter is really dumb coming from a fan of Muhammad. Muhammad scored fewer points on more shots. Which one of them was more likely to add no value with his shooting exactly? Yeah, that’s Muhammad. This argument is awful because Pope’s a reasonably efficient scorer. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still not arguing he’s a good shooter, but he’s still solid at it. I should also say I don’t think Pope’s high volume of shots is entirely by choice. That team absolutely required him to take shots in order to stay in games. I suspect that if he played with some decent team mates he’d take a lower percentage of shots and shoot efficiently. Again, even if I’m wrong I still have the fact that Pope has been a more efficient shooter on my side.
           
          Some people were low on Pope because he struggled as a freshman, and no one spent a lot of time watching Georgia play this year because they were really awful. His relatively low rating has nothing to do with him being a volume shooter, just his lack of exposure. Chad Ford’s been reporting for awhile that Pope is one of the guys he’s been hearing NBA executives mention as moving up draft boards. I’d be genuinely surprised if Pope didn’t make the lottery.
           
          I need to say that your Nick Young comparison is horrible. If Nick Young played defense he’d be good. If either of us is backing a Nick Young it’s you backing Muhammad. Muhammad’s the one trick pony that has not mastered his one skill. Muhammad’s the guy who projects as a poor defender. Pope is a really good athlete and projects as a solid defender. I must say, you are way too focused on the offensive side of my argument when that isn’t even what I like most about Pope. I like Pope for his defensive potential first and foremost. I think Pope has a decent chance to become a Kawhi Leonard type of player if he focuses on defense and efficient scoring. If he continues to try to be a high volume scorer his efficiency will drop. That would still makes him Muhammad with better defense though. Pope projects in the group of guys behind only Oladipo for defensive potential on the wing. Pope, Porter, Franklin, and Ennis are in that group in some order, and only Porter is in that group and younger than him. He just has more room to grow than those older guys, and the younger one would have to be gone before I’d take Pope. 

          • May 10, 20138:19 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            im not saying he can not go in the lottery, especially in this lottery.

            Everyone questions Shabazz(and im not defending shabazz) his shooting, ball-handling and passing…but Pope had all the same problems. Only difference is he had one year more experince.

            Goes back to what I said originally…Number can be flipped to reflect anything, I work with epidemiologist they can make one case of an health issue look like its the fall of can mankind, and your gonna like who you like.

            Combines is next week 

          • May 11, 20138:54 am
            by oats

            So you’re trying to use stats poorly? I might get what your talking about with numbers saying anything if you had a reason to think I wasn’t using them appropriately. I’m not a statistician, but I’ve got a head for numbers and I have a reasonably sound understanding of how to use basketball statistics. It’s not like I’m only using numbers or something, the numbers are just a means to back the point I’m making.
             
            But no, Pope does not have the same problems as Shabazz. Pope is an efficient shooter, Muhammad is only average. Neither of them are all that turnover prone considering their usage rates, but it becomes a problem for Muhammad because he doesn’t pass. 1.8 assists isn’t lighting the world on fire with crisp passing, but given the lack of talent on his team that is actually pretty darn good. 1.8 assists is also way better than .8 assists.
             
            Shabazz has other concerns you are missing on. He played small forward and his rebounding numbers are not up to snuff for the position he played. Pope’s are solid for a small forward despite primarily playing shooting guard. Shabazz was awful at the other defensive stats of steals and blocks. Pope was actually quite good. Those three stats have strong correlations to an ability to defend on the next level because they have strong correlation to size/athleticism. Pope projects as a quality defender while Shabazz looks to be somewhat below average. Shabazz also has concerns about shot selection, and Pope does too. Still, Pope has a better understanding of value shots and that counts for something. Shabazz also has character concerns that might not be a big concern for you, but is a concern that Shabazz has and Pope doesn’t.
             
            Meanwhile, Pope’s biggest concern is level of competition. The SEC was pretty awful. I feel like the fact that his team mates were really awful even by SEC standards counter balances that, but that is the single biggest concern for Pope as a player.

      • May 10, 20133:05 pm
        by frankie d

        Reply

        thinking about this further, i have a feeling that stephen curry’s playoff performance is going to have a pretty big impact on the draft.  that lots of teams are looking at mccollum, and thinking of curry.
        and to some  degree lilliard.  but expecially curry because mccallum plays so much like him.
        and if mccollum’s foot doesn’t give teams pause, he could easily be a guy who rockets up the board, all the way into the top 5.
        lots of teams are kicking themselves for doubting curry.  ditto with lillard.  i think any team looking at a point guard will look very hard at mccollum.  what happened with waiters – with his crazy rise after the combines – could happen with mccollum.
        imho, he does look like a guy who could actually pass well enough to play the point.  seems like he did what he needed to do on his team in order to help them win, and on that team, he needed to score.  but he seems like a smart guy and a smart player – unlike knight, who is supposed to be a smart guy but who plays like an idiot – and he could probably make the adjustment to the point.
        and, i can’t believe i’m actually writing this, but he might just be the guy for the pistons.  that is right, another combo guard.  but this time, it looks like, contrary to the other guys – stuckey, knight – he just might be the correct choice.  i know that it would be tough for pistons’ fans to accept another combo guard, with the argument that this time they will get it right, but that just might be the case with mccollum. 

  • May 9, 201310:40 am
    by Dlyles

    Reply

    If anybody on here wants Brandon Jennings you have absolutely no idea about basketball.  Jennings is a chucker and is very streaky.  Someone will overpay him and it won’t be us, Millsap is a 4 point blank and a waste of cap space on our team when there are cheaper backup big options.  And Trey Burke is sooo much better than what Mateen Cleaves was.  Cleaves was an intangibles guy, Burke has NBA range and can make every pass.  His major drawback is his size in terms of finishing at the rim and bigger guards shooting over him.

    • May 9, 201311:39 am
      by tarsier

      Reply

      Why do people care if someone expensive is coming off the bench? I understand not wanting to waste a guy you spend a lot on. But to avoid wasting him, you just have to give him plenty of minutes, you don’t need him to start. And the minutes are there for the taking, especially if Drummond still gets winded quickly when handed heavier minute loads, but even if not.

      Plus, the Pistons have two nice bigs, but they are really shallow there right now. If a nice trade opportunity came up where the partner wanted a big man, it would be hard for Detroit to cope with the loss of either.

      Based on everything I’ve seen, Millsap probably isn’t getting a lot more than $10M annually. I’d love to have him around that price. I like Smith a bit better, but expect him to cost significantly more.

      Teague is a fantastic option. Most likely the Hawks match, but might as well drive up the price.

      Another option would be using the cap space to trade Stuckey for Eric Gordon (new Orleans would be doing this as a salary dump, not because they love Stuckey so much). It would be a risk, but a change of scenery may be just what he needs. And guys as good as he was pre-injury just aren’t easy to come by.

      I’d also be cool with Iggy at the right price. he’s still good for 15, 5, and 5 with lockdown D.  

      • May 9, 201312:26 pm
        by G

        Reply

        What I said below, you never want a situation where you can’t put your 3 best players on the court at the same time. If the Pistons got Millsap, that would be the case.

        • May 9, 20131:07 pm
          by tarsier

          Reply

          I think Millsap has enough range that you could play them all together. It may not be the perfect fit, but it’s better than having an inferior best three who you can play together more easily.

          • May 9, 20131:30 pm
            by G

            You can’t put Millsap on the 3 if you’re going to pretend to play defense. You certainly wouldn’t get a lot of minutes out of that combination.

  • May 9, 201311:37 am
    by Corey

    Reply

    I’m not sure Millsap is a waste. He, Drummond, and Monroe could all get 30+ minutes.  Millsap could play with either of the other two. And Drummond may not be ready to handle Hack-A-ndre next year. If we want to be a playoff team next year, a third big who can really contribute would help a lot.

    That said, it’s all contract dependent. If we could get Millsap for 3 years and $30m total, especially front-loaded a little, I’d grab him in a heartbeat. That contract would be up when Drummond needs an extension, so it would fit very well.  If it took 4 years and $60m total, I’d laugh and say no way. 

    Here’s an outside-the-box thought:

    Many people (myself included) have pondered the idea of front-loading contract offers this year to save money for next year’s free agent class. But is it possible to go farther? Does the CBA allow a team to offer a contract with salaries like this:

    2013-14: $15m
    2014-15: $3m
    2015-16: $12m

    If that’s allowable, you could still give someone a $30m, 3 year contract, and have it count for almost nothing next summer when you’re trying to sign more free agents. There might be a one-year luxury tax hit down the road in 2015-16, with a big signing in 14, but it would be a way to get two bites of the free agent apple. 

    Does the CBA prevent this somehow?  

    • May 9, 201311:41 am
      by G

      Reply

      I’d much prefer it if Millsap was a combo 4 (like Smith) and could play D (like Smith). You never want a situation where you can’t get your 3 best players on the court at the same time.

    • May 9, 201311:43 am
      by tarsier

      Reply

      I think this is not allowed, but I’m not sure. I believe there are maximum allowable raises (or salary reductions) from year to year. You can get around that in the first year by tacking on a signing bonus. But I don’t think you can have that discrepancy between years 2 and 3.

      Someone correct me if I’m misunderstanding this. 

      • May 9, 20131:14 pm
        by Jacob

        Reply

        I know you can back load contracts but that really only works with restricted free agents.

        • May 9, 20133:19 pm
          by Corey

          Reply

          The back-loading of contracts with Lin and Asik last year is what started me wondering. 

          • May 9, 20133:51 pm
            by tarsier

            Yeah, Lin’s contract was reported as $5M, $5M, $15M and Asik’s about the same. But everywhere I look up contract details, both of them seem to have fairly standard, $8M and change/yr deals.

            So I’m not really sure what’s happening there. 

  • May 9, 201312:19 pm
    by Wolverines23

    Reply

    I agree about Brandon Jennings^, not only that he can’t back his word and played horribly in that first round series against the Heat. Jarett Jack would be much better.
    The only drawback that people mention about Burke is his size. Look at what Nate Robinson is doing in the playoffs, Ty Lawson, Chris Paul, it’s okay to be small. Not a big deal. I really feel that Victor Oladipo out of the consensus “top 6″ will be the guy to fall, and we would have a chance to pick him. He’d be great, but only makes sense if Brandon Knight is either going to be the starting pg next year or the first guard off the bench. Oladipo is a SG not a 3. I’d rather see Dumars make an effort to move up and ensure that we get either Trey Burke, Mclemore, or Porter. Or trade away our 7th pick and tank hard next year, so that we can draft high in 2014 (probably very unlikely, with all the changes coming this summer).
     
     

    • May 9, 20131:09 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      Nothing wrong with Knight coming off the bench. He hasn’t played well enough to be a starter for many teams anyway. Maybe he and Oladipo could push each other for SG minutes.

      • May 9, 20133:09 pm
        by sebastian

        Reply

        No disrespect tarsier, bu for 1800th time: B. Knight is not a starting SG. He can be a very effective version of Jason Terry or with the right coach (i.e. Isiah Thomas), he can become an effective PG, but the dude is not a starting PG.

        • May 9, 20133:14 pm
          by G

          Reply

          A) Nobody said anything about Knight being a starting anything, not sure what your point here is
          B) Don’t bring up that moronic “Isiah can coach up BK7″ shit again… Isiah has never coached up ANYBODY in all his years of coaching.

          • May 9, 20133:17 pm
            by sebastian

            Yo, “G”, never say never, my man.

          • May 9, 20133:32 pm
            by G

            Do you know of anybody? Seriously, because I remember WHEN he was coaching & it never happened. I went back & looked at the stats… yep, didn’t happen.

        • May 9, 20133:16 pm
          by sebastian

          Reply

          tarsier, forgive me, I didn’t read your post carefully. I see that we are in agreement that N. Knight is not a starting SG.
          My bust.

          • May 9, 20133:52 pm
            by tarsier

            I was a bit confused. I was conceding that I was willing to let Knight compete for the starting spot. And my only guess was that the idea that he could even do that was offending you.

  • May 9, 20133:52 pm
    by Nick N

    Reply

    I know this is an off topic, but has anyone thought about how good the Warriors would be this year if they drafted Greg Monroe?

    • May 9, 20134:12 pm
      by G

      Reply

      Basically they already had a better version with David Lee, except Lee got injured in the playoffs.

      • May 9, 20134:59 pm
        by tarsier

        Reply

        I’m not very convinced that Lee is better than Monroe. He played at a faster pace and put up bigger numbers, sure. But I think his increased efficiency was basically a product of having shooters around him and players to get him the ball for easy buckets. Monroe did not have those luxuries. Also, as bad as Monroe’s D is, I’ll take it over Lee’s.

        • May 10, 20138:16 am
          by G

          Reply

          Monroe’s D is a little better, but not by a whole lot. Lee shot a better FG% than Monroe while taking more shots further from the hoop. He has career averages of 16.5 ppg and 10.9 rebs, and a lot of those were with some bad teams. I think Monroe will surpass Lee, but right now Lee is the better player.

  • May 9, 20138:42 pm
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    I promise until the combines or worlouts (or real new) I will not talk about or defend Shabazz anymore..

    • May 10, 20138:18 am
      by G

      Reply

      I’ll do my best to do the same.

  • May 9, 201310:03 pm
    by vic

    Reply

    If we can’t get the big 6 I say trade back and and pickup Adetokuonbo and Tony Mitchell or Dennis Schroeder. Atlanta has 17 and 18.

    • May 10, 20137:43 am
      by I HATE FRANK

      Reply

      Dont l know if Abetokuonbo  is gonnabe be at 17…

      if he is who they say he is, a lottery team takes a chance on him just because this draft is limited with players with high-ceiling

      • May 10, 20138:17 am
        by G

        Reply

        I think a team would be insane to take Abetokuonbo that high. The kid is probably 2-3 years away from making an NBA roster.

        • May 10, 20138:45 am
          by I HATE FRANK

          Reply

          all depends on his true skill set…

          Is he all hype or the real thing..

          I feel like this is a throw away draft….Im not saying theres no talent in this draft, but the talent is soo wide ranging so if your gonna reach might as well be in this draft.

          Its not like he’ll go top 5, but 7-14 why not?

          • May 10, 20139:14 am
            by G

            Why not 7-14? Because a) he’s too much of an unknown and there are safer bets at that point, and b) spending a late lotto pick on a guy 2-3 years away is a STUPID move for a GM (if he wants to keep his job). Think about it – all first rounders get guaranteed contracts. That means you can’t stash him in Europe for a couple years, he’s on the roster.

            There are plenty of players available in this draft that can contribute right away. I really like Dieng & think he could have a pretty good career. Plumlee doesn’t have a lot of upside, but I think he could come off the bench & get 10-12 ppg with some boards & decent defense. Withey’s out there, he’s at least a solid 2nd string center right now. Then you have shooters like McCollum & Crabbe… Someone might roll the dice on Giannis in the first round, but usually you want a little more immediate impact with someone who’s getting a guaranteed contract. 

  • May 10, 20139:39 am
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    “”Why not 7-14? Because a) he’s too much of an unknown and there are safer bets at that point, and b) spending a late lotto pick on a guy 2-3 years away is a STUPID move for a GM (if he wants to keep his job). Think about it – all first rounders get guaranteed contracts. That means you can’t stash him in Europe for a couple years, he’s on the roster.”"
    1. I dont disagree but i’ve seen stranger in the past. Normally when the america talent is shallow, NBA GMs and Scouts go fishing overseas…like i said if he is the real thing, if he has the skill-set…Theres also the kid Dario Saric, who NBA scouts where talking about last year, and he is getting lottery looks. 2-3 years away could be a stretch i dont know i’ve havent seen him play, and i read different things. But if you look at alot of mock drafts he is the fastest climbing player

    “”There are plenty of players available in this draft that can contribute right away. I really like Dieng & think he could have a pretty good career. Plumlee doesn’t have a lot of upside, but I think he could come off the bench & get 10-12 ppg with some boards & decent defense. Withey’s out there, he’s at least a solid 2nd string center right now. Then you have shooters like McCollum & Crabbe… Someone might roll the dice on Giannis in the first round, but usually you want a little more immediate impact with someone who’s getting a guaranteed contract. ”"

    2. I agree, Deshaun Thomas, Jammal Franklin, Reggie Bullock….but we both know upside and potenital plays a huge role in what a player can become, vs who they are right now. So i do think its far fetched to believe that both Saric and Giannis will go in the lottery, it depends on what teams see, and how they envision their teams being built.

    Pistons or I should say Dumars does not have the luxury….unless he really,really, really is sold on a guy. Because Dumars could draft POPE, Shabazz,Oladipo and if they dont pan out as rookies, and the player after out pick has a good rookie year the fire just gets turned up even hire.

    • May 10, 20139:55 am
      by I HATE FRANK

      Reply

      I meant “So i do not think its far fetched to believe that both Saric and Giannis will go in the lottery”

      BTW: i read a few rumors that the Suns REALLY like McCollum, that could shift the whole lottery is that holds true

    • May 10, 201310:00 am
      by G

      Reply

      I see him climbing into the LATE first round. Ford has him going 28th, Draftexpress has him ranked 23rd (ahead of KCP, which is crazy to me).

      The fact is this draft is REALLY bad. It was bad before the declaration deadline, it got LOTS worse after. In an average draft, Adetokunbo probably goes mid-2nd round at best. After the top 6, this draft really starts to fall apart. There might be a couple decent players in the 7-15 range, but most look like role players. After 15, you just want a guy that can play minutes. 

      Adetokunbo isn’t that guy yet. This draft there are several foreign players ranked ahead of him – Saric, Gobert, Karasev, Schroeder, and probably Nogueira too. You can’t take Giannis 7-14 if he isn’t even one of the top 5 foreign players.

      If you’re looking to roll the dice at 7, why not Glen Rice Jr? 

      • May 10, 201311:14 am
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        “”I see him climbing into the LATE first round. Ford has him going 28th, Draftexpress has him ranked 23rd (ahead of KCP, which is crazy to me).”"
        1. All depends on where you look, NBAdraft.net has him at 20, Hoopshype.com has him going 11th, Bleacher Report had him at 17 …(depends on what sources you trust), they all say his stock is rising ,i read one of his last game he played in the senior Greece league scored 19pts ,9rebs 2blk in front of some NBA GM and Scouts that will be picking in the lottery, and they were impressed. All im saying is it would not shock me

        “”The fact is this draft is REALLY bad. It was bad before the declaration deadline, it got LOTS worse after. In an average draft, Adetokunbo probably goes mid-2nd round at best. After the top 6, this draft really starts to fall apart. There might be a couple decent players in the 7-15 range, but most look like role players. After 15, you just want a guy that can play minutes. ”

        2. we disagree slightly, I just believe once Shabazz and Oladipo are off the board, then it comes to picking the players you really like or fits your system the best. But if a team in the lottery like Giannis 7-14 isnt a stretch.
        “”Adetokunbo isn’t that guy yet. This draft there are several foreign players ranked ahead of him – Saric, Gobert, Karasev, Schroeder, and probably Nogueira too. You can’t take Giannis 7-14 if he isn’t even one of the top 5 foreign players.”"
        3. I cant call it, havent seen them play outside of dated videos…The difference is Giannis is rising, I remember NBAdraft.net talking about him back in January-Febuary then he was 2nd rd, now he is potential lottery and a 1rd lock

        “”If you’re looking to roll the dice at 7, why not Glen Rice Jr? ”"

        4. not likely, unless he kills the combine, he does have a desirable athletism to his game

        • May 10, 201312:12 pm
          by G

          Reply

          Glen Rice Jr played better than any of these guys against tougher competition (except the guys playing in ACB). He’s actually a lot like your guy Shabazz.

          Big reason why Giannis jumped (and all the other foreign players, really) is because so many of the mid-level talents in the draft went back to school. The foreign players have more exposure now, true, but when guys like Gary Harris and GR3 were still options, nobody was talking about them.

  • May 10, 20132:01 pm
    by Fugazi

    Reply

    I’m still hoping that Oladipo falls to the Pistons OR they trade up for him. 5 years from now he will emerge as the best of the bunch in this mediocre crop.

  • May 10, 20134:58 pm
    by by key decisions know

    Reply

    Frankie thinking the same thing ,what do you think of his D.

  • May 11, 20132:10 am
    by MrCarter

    Reply

    Unless we land Oladipo, Porter, or Burke, I still think we should trade down. Maybe for a mid first round pick this year and a lottery protected pick in 2014. I got some ideas but I’ll save them for another day.
     

  • Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video too make your point.
    You clearly know what youre talking about, why throw
    away your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could
    be giving us something informative to read?

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