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Detroit Pistons #DraftDreams: Nerlens Noel

Discuss Draft Dreams on Twitter using the #DraftDreams hashtag.

Info

  • Measurables: 6-foot-11, 215 pounds, freshman center from the University of Kentucky.
  • Key Stats: 10.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.3 steals and 4.4 blocks per game; shot 59 percent from the field.
  • Projected: Top-5 pick.
  • Hickory High similarity score

Random Fact

Nerlen’s Noel is probably most known for his shot-blocking acumen and tearing his ACL in a national TV loss to Florida mid-way through the season.

What he’s also known for is eraser-top haircut. The dude’s hair rivals Kid from Kid ‘n Play, and when he announced his decision to attend the University of Kentucky last season, he of course did it in the most “look at me” way ever done with hair. Via Deadspin:

Yes, he shaved the UK logo into his head. There’s no joke to make because that is too perfect.

Fits with the Pistons because …

He’s a really good basketball player. The Pistons may have a developing core group of young frontcourt players, but they still aren’t good enough to pick for need and not value. They should not forgo drafting the best prospect in this draft just because he doesn’t fill an immediate need.

Noel doesn’t have a polished offensive game, but at 19, he already has an NBA-ready skill in shot blocking. He’s one of the best pure shot blockers to come out in recent years, perhaps even better than Anthony Davis last year.

The difference between Noel and Davis is on the offensive end. Both are mighty thin (Noel is 215 pounds), but Davis has some semblance of a face-up game. Noel’s got very little. He improved as the season went on, and had he not been forced out of action early, he was only going to get better.

Perhaps he even can serve as a trade-igniter for the anti-Greg Monroe crowd. But I digress.

Doesn’t fit with the Pistons because …

He’s still recovering from the torn ACL, and Pistons.com’s Keith Langlois recently reported that Noel hopes to be back ready to go by Christmas. The knee injury shouldn’t scare teams away because he’s a 19-year-old who is ahead of schedule on his rehab.

The Pistons need a wing or point guard much more than another big man, even if Noel is just too good to pass up. There are major questions how Noel would play with Andre Drummond, considering both are so similar and, at this point, limited. Offensively, neither has range or the ability to handle the ball, and they might just clog the paint and prevent each other from the lobs they’re so great at finishing. Defensively, both could be elite rim protectors, but if they’re just duplicating that skill, it could leave a void in defending outside the paint.

From the Experts

Chad Ford:

Noel’s season ended on Feb. 12 when he tore his left ACL. However, the injury has done little to hurt his draft stock. Noel has been atop our Big Board all year with the exception of a brief slip to No. 2 after the injury. He has great size and athletic ability, and he proved to be one of the hardest-working players at Kentucky this season. Although his offensive game is a work in progress, he has as much upside as anyone in the draft. We currently project him as the No. 1 player on our board and he goes No. 1 in most mock draft scenarios.

DraftExpress:

Any discussion about Noel’s potential as a NBA prospect should start with his phenomenal physical attributes. Measured at 6-10 without shoes, with a 7-4 wingspan and exceptional athletic ability, Noel is a rare specimen. He runs the floor like a guard, is extremely nimble and quick, and has pogo stick leaping ability. This allows him to cover ground unbelievably well both vertically and horizontally, which helps him impact the game in numerous ways. It’s safe to say that, should he make a full recovery from his injury as expected, he’ll be one of the most athletic big men in the NBA.

What is the best thing Noel does for his team?

Glenn Logan (follow his blog on Twitter @ASeaOfBlue) covers the University of Kentucky for A Sea of Blue, SB Nation’s Kentucky blog:

When Kentucky fans think of Nerlens Noel, one image will forever be galvanized in our brains — the image of Noel running 94 feet to block a shot in a game that was almost surely lost while most of his teammates barely made it past half court, only to be injured when he landed awkwardly. What most of us forget is that he actually did block the shot. That’s the kind of competitive determination that defines Noel, and the lucky NBA team that gets him will never regret the pick.

Yes, Noel is extremely raw. He isn’t very good at the game of basketball yet, but he is an athletic marvel, perhaps the quickest 6’10″ player to ever enter the NBA draft. Defensively, he needs very little work to have an immediate impact. Almost everyone knows about his prodigious shot-blocking, but what most people don’t know is that Noel blocks shots equally well with either hand, an extremely rare skill that is almost absent from any level of basketball. It matters — a lot. He also averaged over two steals per game, something almost never seen in combination with great shot-blocking. Offensively, he’ll take some time to develop, so a team needing immediate low block scoring or a face-up game might want to look elsewhere.

Finally, Noel is a genuinely good person who deeply involved in the community. He loves the game of basketball and is completely coachable at any level. He has a few potential negatives with his body type from a sports business standpoint, but from a personal standpoint, any team will be lucky to have him in their locker room. I cannot recommend Noel highly enough, and the value of his intangibles, though overshadowed by his astonishing athletic gifts, are almost reason enough to draft him by themselves.

On film

122 Comments

  • May 19, 20135:09 pm
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    206lbs …. limited on offense….I even take hm in the top 5…unless was tying to get wiggins or parker nxt year

    • May 19, 20136:15 pm
      by oats

      Reply

      I’m not usually one to correct typos because that would be hypocritical of me, but I sometimes can’t understand you. “I even take hm in the top 5…unless was tying to get wiggins or parker nxt year” [sic]. Yeah, that’s hard to understand. Either wouldn’t is missing from the first part, or unless is incorrect in the second part. In either case there is something wrong that makes it tough for me to comprehend this post.

      • May 19, 20136:25 pm
        by tarsier

        Reply

        In general, the comments on this post are significantly worse than normal in terms of English. It does make conversing much harder.

      • May 19, 20136:53 pm
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        It was terrible…I was typing on the my phone and the keys were freezing… and I did not feel like waiting for it reload…to make corrections

        My point was Noel is a huge project, and I believe he is going to fall out of the top 5…unless you are drafting him with plans to be in the wiggins and parker sweepstakes 

        • May 19, 20138:31 pm
          by tarsier

          Reply

          I could believe that he won’t be one of the top 5 players to come out of the draft. But there is no chance whatsoever that he is not drafted with one of the top 5 picks.

          He is most likely going to be the first overall pick. I could see someone taking McLemore, Porter, or Burke over Noel (although I would be incredibly shocked if they all went over him). It is really, really hard to see anyone taking Oladipo or Bennett over him. 

          • May 20, 20138:41 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            I dont even like Porter…

            Burke
            porter
            Oladipo
            McLemore
            Bennett

            Could all go before Noel…for the reason listed…. all depending on draft order… Which team needs Noel?

            Last year people had Thomas Robinson as a look for the top 3…and he fell a bit

            Im not saying he gonna fall out of the lottery, but is this draft soo weak in the top 5 that a guy like Noel who was not dominate in college, some of his best games were average at best against average to poor college teams…

            The shot blocking is amaing, but its alot like Ibaka because of the pace of the game more opportunities to block shot. He’s also a poor FT shooter (not saying he cant improve)

            He’s a Huge project…. if i was a GM i’d pass…Especially with the options availalbe…. UNLESS Im thinking about using this draft as a throw-away..

          • May 20, 20138:56 am
            by tarsier

            Nobody had Robinson as a lock for the top 3. They thought he was a top 3 prospect. Big difference.

            This year, they have Noel as the number one prospect. Does that mean he is a lock for first overall? No. But there is not a chance that he falls out of the top 5.

            This draft is very similar to 2011 in terms of caliber of prospects. That year, Irving was not exactly a lock to go first overall. But, like Noel, there was no chance of his slipping all the way to 4 or 5 or much less even further.

          • May 20, 20139:01 am
            by tarsier

            Also, I like the 2011 draft as a comparison because, like Irving, Noel has injury red flags. But, in very limited opportunities for observation, he has set himself ahead of the class enough that he will probably go first overall anyway.

          • May 20, 201310:21 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            I agree, and using “locked” was a strong word…but not many of the sites and people we call reiable had him falling out of the top 3 

            http://www.iamatrailblazersfan.com/ArticleDisplay/tabid/120/ItemID/3104/Default.aspx

            Unless you think he is Jermaine Oneal or Kevin Garnett …i’d pass…

          • May 20, 201311:05 am
            by tarsier

            My memory is not perfect, but it seems like that draft had a lot of unknown after number 1. The next prospects were most frequently MKG, Beal, and Robinson in some order (with a real possibility of either Barnes or Drummond getting into the mix). The fact that Waiters went so high was shocking. And the fact that the Blazers were going to take Lillard was the worst kept secret of all time.

            For any of Beal, MKG, and Robinson to slip to 5 only required one surprising pick (Waiters, as it turned out). If there had been two surprises, any of them could have dropped all the way to 7.

  • May 19, 20135:11 pm
    by Blocks by Dre (Burke for the win!!)

    Reply

    If we’re in position to draft Noel, we need to trade the pick for players that can help NOW. Trading out off this draft class wouldn’t be the craziest thing Dumars has done…

  • May 19, 20135:35 pm
    by hvh1614

    Reply

    or trade him for pick in 2014 draft. This draft will be very strong with players like Wiggins, Parker, Harrisons, Randle and others.
    I`m bit concerned, that Detroit haven`t got pick in next year draft (traded to Charlotte, top-8 protected, but still). 2014 draft class will be much stronger than current, and I think that it makes sense, to get pick in future draft.

  • May 19, 20136:01 pm
    by T Casey

    Reply

    We def need better wing play, but if he’s the best player on the board I’d say go for it. We could always use another solid big off the bench and he might make for a good tradable asset down as well.

  • May 19, 20136:19 pm
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    noel is losing value as we speak

  • May 19, 20136:24 pm
    by NickB

    Reply

    Noel would simply be a trading chip for us. I’d rather actually draft a player we plan on using, unless we think we can turn Noel into Jabari Parker, Andre Wiggins, or one of the Harrison twins next year. Especially considering his redundancy and lack of offensive game, I’d prefer we draft Burke, McLemore, or Porter Jr. All players filling a position of need and providing us with perimeter shooting.

  • May 19, 20136:31 pm
    by David

    Reply

    Since Noel will almost certainly go first the only way this question comes up is if the Pistons win the lottery on Tuesday. If that happens I’d hope they try and see about trading down 1 – 3 spots in the draft and getting value out of the 1st pick that way AND getting to draft McLemore, Oladipo, or Porter.

    Because the NBA is increasingly going small, Drummond and Monroe are a solid frontcourt core while the entire perimeter roster is replaceable. One of the 3 perimeter prospects I listed could (emphasis on could) lock down a 3rd starting spot to go with the Andre and Greg for the foreseeable future.

    If the Pistons win the 1st pick and could get either a late first rounder (from the Cavs who have a couple I think) this year or any 1st rounder next (when the Pistons have none) to trade down a few spots I’d do it. 

    • May 19, 20138:40 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      Winning the lottery and trading down would definitely be the best scenario for the Pistons. And any pick from 2-6 would be fantastic because you know there is going to be an excellent prospect there. I would not trade all the way down to 7 because then you have to hope another GM screws up (which one probably will, but still, it’s only probably).

  • May 19, 20136:38 pm
    by frankie d

    Reply

    The 206 lbs. should be an issue.
    While his athleticism is surely top tier, his sheer lack of bulk is going to limit his ability to contribute.  Any team that drafts him is going to have to carefully pair him with a frontcourt mate who will be able to absorb some of the physical punishment that goes on in the paint.
    He definitely is not big enough to play the 5, and most 4s will simply abuse him .  It was an issue for davis who had 10+ pounds on him.  Crazy to imagine that it wont , or shouldnt, be an issue for him.  
    Great talent and i love his motor but i  just have not seen too many 6’11″ 206 lb centers  - ever! – in the nba.
    He makes otto moore look like shaq. 
    He just might drop out of the top 3.   Not sure if i would gamble on him, especially if i am detroit, with so many other needs. 

  • May 19, 20137:11 pm
    by Brady Fredericksen

    Reply

    There’s no way he drops out of the top five. There’s not enough talent after him. You’d be saying you’d rather take Anthony Bennett or Burke/Oladipo over him if he were to fall out of the top five. Weak drafts leave questions, but when you have a guy who has two, certifiably 100 percent very good NBA skills like shot blocking and athleticism, you can’t really throw him aside.

    I get I HATE FRANK’s point, and there’s a Bill Simmons theory that, you can draft Noel, stash him most of the year so he heals up and then subsequently tank for Wiggins next year.

    That’s probably only going to apply to the likely top-3 picking Bobcats, who would pick Noel 1,000,000 times out of 1,000,000 considering how devoid of front court talent they are — even having taken a project center two years ago.

    • May 19, 20138:31 pm
      by I HATE FRANK

      Reply

      Orlando could draft Burke or Mclemore and still be in position to get Wiggins or Parker next year…

      • May 19, 20138:44 pm
        by tarsier

        Reply

        I doubt it. Either or those would take a ton of pressure off of Afflalo, which would make him a much more effective player. Vucevic is looking really good. Harris and Harkless only started playing at the end of the season and started showing a lot of potential. And of course, it’s impossible to predict how they’ll spend their cap space.

        Finishing in the bottom 3 or 4 usually takes some bad luck or tanking. That’s just less likely to happen in back to back seasons. 

  • May 19, 20137:12 pm
    by Brady Fredericksen

    Reply

    Orlando would also fit into the “awful enough to have the No. 1 pick in consecutive years” pool.

    • May 19, 20138:33 pm
      by I HATE FRANK

      Reply

      Do you think the pistons will trade there pick?

      • May 19, 201310:21 pm
        by MrCarter

        Reply

        Unless we land a top 3 pick, the only way I would keep it is if we’re able to get Oladipo or Burke. Otherwise I say we move it. I’m just gonna throw these 2 ideas out there and feel free to critique them as you will. If we stay at 7……
         
        Boston gets: pick #7
        Detroit gets: Jordan Crawford, Fab Melo, pick #16
         
        Atlanta gets: pick #7
        Detroit gets: pick #18, John Jenkins, 2014 lottery protected 1st round pick
         
        Only reason Im suggesting these is I’ve actually posted these on a few other trade discussion sites and they both always got positive reviews. Just some ideas.

        • May 20, 201311:40 am
          by G

          Reply

          I hate the Boston trade. Don’t like Crawford or Fab Melo that much. This would almost be a straight up swap for picks since I don’t see much value in either of those players.

          The Atlanta trade would be a sweet deal for Detroit, Not sure why Atlanta would do it unless they’re in love with someone at #7. 

        • May 20, 201311:44 am
          by tarsier

          Reply

          At least the Pistons could get Sullinger instead of Melo. And then I still don’t particularly like the deal. Cut out Crawford altogether.

          • May 20, 20138:29 pm
            by MrCarter

            Thanks for your thoughts guys. And I happen to know for a fact that Boston is not giving up Sullinger(and since we already have Drummond and Moose I’m not sure where he would fit in anyway). As for Crawford, sure he’s got character problems, but he’s solid scorer at SG who could help us fill that position and, don’t forget, Rasheed had some character problems as well and look how that turned out.

          • May 20, 20139:51 pm
            by tarsier

            To move up from 16 to 7 requires giving up a real asset. The Cs may not be willing to part with Sullinger, but that’s not a very high price to pay.

          • May 21, 20131:01 pm
            by G

            Also, Sullinger would fit as a small ball 4. His skill set is different than Monroe’s or Drummond’s. You probably couldn’t play all 3 at the same time, but you wouldn’t be doing that with Fab Melo either.

            About Jordan Crawford, it’s not just his character issues that concern me. The dude is a scrub. He’s basically Stuckey, except more of a black hole, takes worse shots and doesn’t pretend to play defense. There isn’t anything there that I like. Add to that the fact that he’s an ENORMOUS asshole and is more likely to get into trouble if he moves back to Detroit… I’ll pass, thanks.

  • May 19, 20137:33 pm
    by frankie d

    Reply

    Why is he not dalembert with a bit more athleticism and a better motor?  And do you take that guy that soon?  I really dont know. And you would have to pair him with a guy like cousins  - a big, skilled 4/5 – and how many of those guys are out there?
    Imho, everyone has been so enthralled with noel, but the cold hard reality – where does he play? – has started to cross gm’s minds and i dont know if i’d take him before burke and porter and maybe mclemore and/or bennett.
    Just no way he is ready to play the 5 on any team that doesnt have a 6’10″ 260 lb front court partner waiting for him. 
    If pistons fans laughed at daye playing the 4, how is  noel going to defend 5′s?

    • May 19, 20138:32 pm
      by oats

      Reply

      First of all, steals. 2 steals a game for a big man is ridiculous, and that ability to deny an entry pass is really valuable. Secondly, he’s just a much better athlete and projects as a much better pick and roll player. Noel hits 59% of his field goals, which suggests he can be an offensively deficient but high efficiency big man like Tyson Chandler or Andre Drummond. He also gets 1.6 assists, a really strong number for a freshman big man. I have him pegged as a bit closer offensively to Joakim Noah than Dalembert.
       
      Most importantly, why does he have to defend 5s? He can guard 4s, and probably even some 3s. I’d consider playing him there if I had a stretch 4 like Ryan Anderson, knowing I’d stick Noel on the tougher cover of the two forwards and hiding Anderson on the other one. As for him in Detroit, he’d never defend 5s because Detroit has 2 guys that are at least 6’10″ and 250 lbs in the starting lineup. He’d pretty much only play the position after the opponents went small, so I don’t see the problem.
       
      Brandon Wright plays about half his minutes at the 5, and he entered the league at 200 lbs. It’s only about 10 minutes a game as match ups allow, and that’s about what I’d peg for Noel in a few years. The difference is he will also play 25-30 minutes a game at the 4 if the team has a center with a bit of an offensive game. It’s not like it’s hard to find centers to pair with him. Just using teams in the top 7: Orlando has Vucevic, Phoenix has Gortat, New Orleans has Davis and I still think he’ll switch to the 5 soon, Sacramento has Cousins, and Detroit has Monroe. The teams without someone have Mullens and Zeller as guys to develop with an outside chance of becoming solid offensive centers, but I wouldn’t count on either of them getting there. Anyone willing to spend for him could potentially add Al Jefferson. There are guys you can get to pair with him, and his potential impact as a player is easily as high as any player in the draft. How does he slip past 3 or so? I get McLemore or Porter, but when your talking about Burke, Bennett, or Oladipo it gets pretty hard to justify passing on Noel unless you have a top notch defensive big man.

      • May 19, 20139:02 pm
        by tarsier

        Reply

        2 steals a game is really good. But I think you overstate how additionally impressive it is from a big man.

        PGs tend to get more steals than everyone else because they are often guarding the primary ball-handler. Apart from that, steals are pretty even from position to position. As the positions get bigger, the steal numbers do trend down, but only slightly. 

        • May 20, 201312:29 am
          by oats

          Reply

          It’s definitely impressive for anyone, but it is more rare for bigs than at other positions. I really don’t think I’m overselling it. Here’s some info from the DraftExpress stats database.
           
          The only player in the last 4 years to never play one of the 3 perimeter positions during the year and get 2 steals per game over the course of a single season is Nerlens Noel. 7 players played SF or PF and made the list, and all 4 of the ones that have left school already have primarily played SF. A list consisting of all SFs or SF/PFs is 16 players long and includes the 6 3/4s from the previous group. The list of guys to play SG or SG/SF is 13 players long. None of those SGs played the point.

          • May 20, 20131:16 am
            by oats

            Ah, I made a mistake on something. Andre Roberson from Colorado and Robert Covington from Tennessee St. this year were not listed in the database as playing the 3 because both of them play for teams that are really tiny. Both of them are often projected as SFs in the NBA though so I accidentally assumed they actually played it. Still, that changes it to 3 bigs, 7 that played the 3 and the 4. The guys that played SF or were 3/4s list is actually 14 players and not 16. The 13 players that played the 2 or 2 and 3 is still right.
             

      • May 19, 20139:54 pm
        by frankie d

        Reply

        have to say i am not a mclemore fan.
        he is, imho, the safest pick.  he’ll probably be an all star within 5 years.
        but i think both porter and burke will actually be the centerpieces of teams that could win a title.  i think mclemore will be a guy who always gets his numbers but will never really lead a team the way that burke and porter will.
        and bennett could be a barkley-type PF who dominates and leads very good teams deep into the playoffs.  
        i just don’t think that what noel offers is that exceptional.  would i probably take him somewhere in the top 5?  sure.  but i do think you can get someone to do the kind of things he does a bit later in the draft.  
        for instance, when did larry sanders go?  mid first?  i was a huge sanders fan and wondered why he didn’t get more attention, but he did not.  imho, the difference is that sanders was at a small college and noel was at kentucky.
        otherwise, they do lots of the same things. granted, noel seems to be a bit more polished in his first year, but is the difference worth the difference between a mid first rounder and a number one pick?
        frankly, i don’t know, but i am fairly skeptical that it is. 

    • May 19, 20138:35 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      Do you have any idea how many teams would love to have Dalembert in his prime with better athleticism and motor? That may not be a first overall pick in most drafts. But 2013 (like 2011) doesn’t have a normal first overall prospect.

      And even in a typical draft, that description would make someone a top 5 pick. 

      • May 19, 20139:38 pm
        by frankie d

        Reply

        let me be clear…
        i would love to have a guy like noel on my team.  period.  i think he does nothing but make your team better and he increases your chances of winning games.
        i like him and think that – assuming he heals – he’ll make a very good/excellent pro.
        the question is whether he is worth the number one pick in this draft.  
        normally, i’d have a firm opinion about this type of thing, but on this one, i have to say that i have more  questions than answers.
        i think it is possible to get a guy like noel – an athletic shotblocker/defender later in just about any draft.  while 7 foot guys like him are not common, guys with his skills and talents are almost always available, albeit in a slighly less glitzy package.  imho, he’s tyrus thomas with about 3-4 inches in height and reach.  and  a much better attitude, which is no small consideration.
        contrary to oats’ view, i don’t think it is fairly easy to pair him up with a frontcourt mate.  for instance, i think playing him with monroe would be a disaster.  neither one has the strength to prevent a low post scorer from establishing positon.  monroe routinely got abused by guys who were patient and strong enough to post him up.  he was like tissue paper, unfortunately.
        of the bigs oats noted, the only one i’d pair noel up with would be gortat, who definitely has shown that he’s strong enough to stop guys from posting deep.
        vukovich, monroe, davis, and especially jefferson, have all shown that they are just not strong enough, mentally or physically, to bang and keep guys from posting low on them.  cousins is not good at it right now,  but he at least shows signs of being able to defend the post, when he is interested.
        brandan wright is a really interesting and, imho, fairly accurate comparison.  very similar players, though i would argue that wright is far more accomplished offensively.  
        a couple of questions then arise:
        -do  you use a number one pick on a brandan wright clone?
        -do you use a number one pick on a guy you expect to only play 25 minutes (approx.) during his rookie contract, or do  you expect that number one pick to be someone who will quickly – by the second year, at least – move into a starting role which will entail 35+ minutes per game against any opponent?
        - if you are detroit, can you afford to have a couple of guys like drummond and noel vying for minutes?
        (actually, i think drummond is a very good passer and he could possibly work with a buy who needed to be fed.  the problem is that he has not shown that he can hit a 10 foot jumper, which would keep a defense honest.)
         

        • May 19, 20139:52 pm
          by Jon

          Reply

          “let me be clear” lol is obama a pistons fan

          • May 19, 201310:40 pm
            by frankie d

            lol…definitely a pistons fan.
            not obama…
            and definitely not a fan of obama. 

        • May 20, 201312:33 am
          by oats

          Reply

          I didn’t call him a Wright clone. I said he has about the same ability to defend the 5 as Wright. Wright averaged 1.8 blocks and 1 steal a game in his year in college. Noel averaged 4.4 blocks and 2 steals. Wright also only got 6.2 rebounds versus Noel’s 9.5. So it’s the number one pick on Wright plus a ton of defensive potential.

        • May 20, 201312:37 am
          by oats

          Reply

          Also, while you are right that guys like Monroe have some trouble in the post, you miss that Noel excels at help defense and his ability to cover ground is truly fantastic. Oh, and Cousins is actually a really solid post defender. He is objectively bad at everything else, but he is a good post defender.

      • May 19, 201310:48 pm
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

         Noel can fall out of the top 5 …. his weight, lack of offense, the ACL, unproven … I hear you about his potential but at the end of the day a GM will be judged by this pick…and to know all of these redflags beforing drafting a guy in the top 5 is crazy and almost career suicide  

         

        • May 20, 20135:43 am
          by oats

          Reply

          I can buy that argument for the first 2 picks or so, but after that I just don’t buy that it’s that big of an issue. I can buy an argument that McLemore and Porter are close enough to Noel that a GM would decide to pass on him. After those two the gap is just too large for that to make sense, and I suspect most GMs wouldn’t have both of them and probably neither of them high enough to let Noel slide. I think he’s still the odds on favorite to be the number one pick. I honestly wouldn’t care if Dumars took him first because his ceiling is just that high, and Detroit probably has less need of him than any team in the lottery.
           
          Also, if a GM passes on Noel and he is as good as advertised while his guy flounders, that is a much more certain end of a career. Oden was a disaster because Durant was on the same tier as him, and passing on Durant for Oden with all those red flags on Oden was a mistake. If Oden went second no one would care because even with the red flags he was still just rated that high. No one would complain about missing out on Horford despite Horford having a very solid career because the Oden pick represented a chance at a franchise changing player. Similarly, no one has someone like Bennett ahead of Noel or even on Noel’s same tier. Say Noel turns out be a star player and a GM passed on him for Bennett. Then say Bennett fizzles out because he is a tweener forward who can’t play defense and struggles to get his shot off against NBA defenses. That is a far riskier proposition than taking Noel, because if Noel flops an argument can be made that it was bad luck with the best talent in the draft.

  • May 19, 20138:47 pm
    by sop

    Reply

    ALL you need to know Top 60 w/ Comps
    Tier 1
    1.     Ben McLemore SG Bradley Beal
     
    2.     Nerlens Noel PF Marcus Camby
    Tier 2
     
    3.     Otto Porter SF Loul Deng
     
    4.     Victor Oladipo SG D Wade Lite
     
    5.     Anthony Bennett PF Z-Bo Lite
     
    6.     Dennis Schroder PG Rajon Rondo
     
    7.     Sergey Karasev SG Manu Ginobli lite
    Tier 3
     
    8.     Alex Len C Kostas Koufas
     
    9.      Cody Zeller PF Tyler Hansborough
     
    10.  Michael Carter-Williams PG/SG Devin Harris
     
    11.    C.J. McCollum SG OJ Mayo
     
    12.  Trey Burke PG DJ Augustine
    Tier 4
     
    13.  Mason Plumlee  PF/C Ian Mahinmi
     
    14.  Shabazz Muhammad SF Jordan Hamilton
     
    15.  Dario Saric SF/PF Turkgulou sans shooting
     
    16. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG Courtney Alexander
     
    17.  Jamaal Franklin SG mini-Gerald Wallace
    Tier 5
     
    18.  Steven Adams C Daniel Orton
     
    19.  Kelly Olynyk PF Adam Morrison
     
    20.  Gorgui Dieng C Zarko Cabarkapa
     
    21.  Jeff Withey C Cole Aldrich
     
    22.  Rudy Gobert C Jarvis Varnardo
    Tier 6
     
    23.  Glen Rice Jr.
     
    24.  Allen Crabbe
     
    25.  Livio Jean Charles
     
    26.  Shane Larkin
     
    27.  Reggie Bullock
     
    28. Tim Hardaway Jr.
     
    29.  C.J. Leslie
     
    30.  Archie Goodwin
     
    31.  Tony Snell
     
    32.  Isaiah Canaan
     
    33.  Pierre Jackson
    Tier 7
     
    34.  Tony Mitchell
     
    35.  Alex Abrines
     
    36.  Giannis Adetokunbo
     
    37.  Mike Muscala
     
    38.  Ray McCallum Jr.
     
    39.  Lorenzo Brown
     
    40.  Erick Green
     
    41.  Deshaun Thomas
     
    42.  Lucas Nogueira
     
    43.  Vander Blue
     
    44.  Myck Kabongo
     
    45.   James Southerland
    Tier 8
     
    46.  B.J. Young
     
    47.  Cory Jefferson
     
    48.  Andre Roberson
     
    49.  Adonis Thomas
     
    50.  Grant Jerrett
     
    51.  Ricardo Ledo
     
    52.  Seth Curry
     
    53.  Nemanja Nedovic
     
    54.  Mouhammadou Jaiteh
     
    55.  Nate Wolters
     
    56.  Ryan Kelly
     
    57.  Khalif Wyatt
     
    58.  Brandon Davies
     
    59.  Brandon Paul
     
    60.  Richard Howell

    • May 19, 20139:04 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      Bennett’s game isn’t even vaguely similar to Randolph’s.

      • May 19, 20139:40 pm
        by frankie d

        Reply

        lol!  no one has a game like randolph’s!  he is truly a unique guy.   

      • May 19, 201310:55 pm
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        I really like Bennett …  and hate when people say he cant play SF…

        • May 19, 201311:27 pm
          by oats

          Reply

          I really like Bennett, but I don’t think he can play SF full time. He’s just doesn’t have the lateral quickness from what I can tell. He can get some minutes there, but his inability to guard any slashing wing player means he can’t stay there full time. I think he’s primarily a 4 that will give some reserve minutes at the 3.

          • May 20, 20138:55 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            I think his laternal Qucikness is solid enough to guard the position, and then when you take into account his strenght, length and athleticism. Its more about learning to defend for him

          • May 20, 20139:22 am
            by oats

            I really didn’t see the necessary quickness, but it’s hard to make a case that I’m right when it could just be that he is a completely uninterested defender. He is that too and it is potentially troublesome. Bennett so rarely displayed any effort defensively that it is objectively difficult to accurately gauge him. I think his front line speed is adequate, but the quick side to side movement wasn’t there. Unfortunately that is based almost entirely on watching him do a poor job shuffling side to side and staying with guys on defense. The means for grading him is fundamentally flawed due to a lack of effort, but I just didn’t see him display the kind of quickness needed to defend NBA SFs for extended periods at a time. To me that makes him an undersized 4, and honestly that might be his highest value anyways. His range goes from pretty good to really good. His ability to score in the paint is predicated on quick movements, and at the 4 he will be more likely to have a speed advantage. He’s also a solid rebounder, and playing him at the 4 increases the likelihood of being close to those rebounds. I get that he’d have a strength advantage at the 3, but I think I’d rather him have a speed and shooting advantage at the 4.

          • May 20, 201310:40 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            I hear what you are saying…

            its clear we view and evaluate talent differently…

            im going to use Andre Drummond for Example: a player we both watched tons of this year. they said he’s a project ,he’s lazy, he doesnt defend, and he wont be a impact player anytime soon …. I said if you watch the footage its not true, he lacked motivation and fundamentals

            I feel the same about Bennett, lack of motivation and fundmental..he has all of the tools to defend the SF position. He’ll struggle against the more Elite SF’s like everyone else does,but overall he’ll be fine.

            But it depends on how a team plans to use him, because he could easily shed another 10 lbs and he’s become even more explosive at the SF position

          • May 20, 20138:45 pm
            by oats

            I get that Bennett clearly lacked motivation and fundamentals, and I agree that those things can change. A lot times guys that lack motivation never get properly motivated, but that’s not really the point. The problem is that he also looked slow on top of that. Maybe slow isn’t the right word because we’re talking about a very specific type of movement that he wasn’t good at. Maybe if he loses weight he’ll get better at getting wide, and that would help him a lot in trying to stay with wing players. I wouldn’t count on it happening because he often struggled to follow face the basket 4s in college. I think refocusing him will fix that and he’ll be able to defend those guys in the NBA, but I just can’t see him handling quicker wings like Demar DeRozan or Kawhi Leonard. I’m not talking elite guys, just quick ones. That’s a problem. 
             
            I also disagree with your take on Drummond. I don’t think it was just him being under productive in college due to a lack of motivation and fundamentals. I think he also made significant strides athletically. Drummond did 10 reps of 185 pounds at the combine, and that’s pretty bad. That’s not the guy we just watched this year. He clearly made strides athletically, and even Kander commented on how unusually fast Drummond developed. The Drummond Detroit had just wasn’t the same guy athletically as he was at UConn. Both of them run the court similarly, but the Detroit version wasn’t getting manhandled any more. I mean, did you watch the Summer League games? Kyle O’Quinn pushed him around like it was nothing. Then the regular season roles around and the stronger guys in the league were less successful at moving Drummond where they wanted him than O’Quinn had been. That’s not just an improvement in his stance, it reflects a guy that got much stronger over the summer.

    • May 19, 20139:12 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      Also, Devin Harris is a decent shooter. If anyone is similar to Rondo, it’s MCW (even though they are very different heights).

      Schroeder and Karasev are pretty unknown quantities at this point. You are very generous in your judgment of them. If they were really that good, they should probably be even higher. But they almost certainly are not.

      Augustin is nowhere close to the player that Burke is. Augustin will probably get his last contract this summer. And it won’t be a big one.

      If Franklin were actually a mini Gerald Wallace, he would belong a couple tiers higher.

      Withey to Aldrich may be a fair comparison; but it’s so lazy, you still lose points for it. 

      • May 19, 20139:28 pm
        by sop

        Reply

        Ok then… Milsap for Bennett and Shaun Livingston for MCW

        • May 19, 201310:52 pm
          by I HATE FRANK

          Reply

          Carter-Williams makes of sense …

          Move BK to SG
          Singler / Middleton at SF (solid)

          Or trade for a SF 

          • May 19, 201311:29 pm
            by oats

            Turnovers galore. Knight on 17% of his possessions this past season and MCW on 25% of his. No thank you.

          • May 20, 20137:11 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            @Oats – Knight turnover reduced in the SG position and this was CarterIWilliams first year playing as Starting PG …nuffin about his game says he can not get better or play under even more control… And the NBA game fit his style of play even better…

            Not gonna get into the Knight arguement…. But Carter williams has tested as one of the best athletes in this drafted, combined with his ball-handling and passing skills…makes him special
             

          • May 20, 20137:34 am
            by oats

            Knight’s turnovers were lowered, but so were the possessions used. Knight’s turnover percentage was actually relatively even despite his positional change.
             
            As for MCW, I really don’t like him as a player. At Kentucky Knight turned it over only 20% of the time, and I consider his turnovers unacceptable for a point guard. 25% is abysmal. He can cut in to that quite a bit by making better decisions, but he’s likely to always be a high turnover point guard. Guys don’t usually go from ridiculously awful to pretty good, they usually just improve to bad. The same thing must also apply to his shooting. I mentioned it below, but I’ll repeat the numbers. 40% from the field, 30% from 3, 49% at the rim, 70% at the line, and 50% true shooting percentage. That is all kinds of horrible. I can buy he’ll improve on this too, but he’s got a really long ways to go in both areas before he’s actually a good point guard. It seems far more likely that he gets better in both, but not by enough. I wouldn’t touch MCW in the lottery even if I like his defensive potential.

          • May 20, 20137:45 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            Carter-Williams first year really playing period…
             

          • May 20, 20138:41 am
            by oats

            Unless he discovered basketball for the first time last year I’m not buying this argument. His numbers are bad for a freshman, none the less for a 21 year old sophomore.

          • May 20, 20139:07 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            “”Unless he discovered basketball for the first time last year I’m not buying this argument. His numbers are bad for a freshman, none the less for a 21 year old sophomore.”"

            Age vs Experience arguement…dont feel like it today..

            He is without a doubt one of the best ball handling and passing players in the draft and he is one of the top athletes in the draft….

            There isnt a guard like him in this draft, i’ll take my chance with the turnovers, especially when you know that system in Syracuse , it was all on him to create for his team

          • May 20, 20139:24 am
            by oats

            Not entirely the age vs. experience argument. Notice where I said it was pretty bad even for a freshman? That means that even if the experience thing actually mattered he’d still have been pretty bad.

    • May 19, 201311:25 pm
      by oats

      Reply

      Augustin is smaller and a worse passer than Burke. Burke is probably closer to Mike Conley.
       
      Schroeder’s passing numbers aren’t very good, but his shot is decent. His assist totals are mediocre, and he’s a bit turnover prone. He also hit 37% of his 3s between the two leagues he played in. I have him pegged as much closer to Jerryd Bayless at this point. I obviously think 6 is way too high for him.
       
      I have to mention that Karasev is not nearly the ball handler or passer of a Manu. I’d put him as Kevin Martin light.
       
      MCW not only is a terrible shooter, he is also insanely turnover prone. He turns it over on 25% of his possessions. That is holy crap awful. Brandon Knight laughs at that number. I really need to repeat the can’t shoot thing though. 40% from the field, 49% at the rack, 30% from 3, and 70% from the line. Stuckey thinks 49% at the rim is terrible. That’s also a true shooting percentage of 49.8%, which is just unacceptable. I think I’d try to turn him into Tony Allen if I drafted him, but that wastes the outside chance that he can get those turnovers under control and become a real passer.
       
      Courtney Alexander for Pope? What does that mean? Alexander put up 17 points a game as a rookie, then only had 3 more seasons and never cracked 25 minutes or 10 points a game. No matter what, it misses out on Pope’s greatest asset, his defense. 7 rebounds and 2 steals a game suggests really high defensive potential. It also misses the fact that Pope was a much more efficient scorer in college. I think Pope’s more likely to scale back his offensive role and become a Kawhi Leonard type of player on the next level.

      • May 20, 20137:53 am
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        Rondo was a terrible shooter also…
        Jason Kidd was a terrible shooter….
        Vasquez average shooter….

        Carter-williams has soo much room to develop…once again a jump-shoot can get better, but gifted ball-handling and court-vision can not …

        About Leonard …I wouldnt get excited about that comparison take him off the spurs and Pops amazing way of coaching players into there potential, he is just a solid rotation guy that no one would really be talking about … 
         

        • May 20, 20139:06 am
          by oats

          Reply

          None of them were Carter Williams bad as a shooter. Kidd had a 58% true shooting percentage which is pretty good. Rondo was a decidedly average 53%, and Vasquez was a solid 55%. MCW’s 50% is quite bad in comparison. MCW is literally bad shooting at every single distance, and all of those guys had at least something to hang their hats on. Jump shooting can improve, but guys don’t usually go from awful to good. Just check out Rondo who still has no jump shot. There are a handful of examples of guys that go from bad to good, but it is really rare. Your essentially projecting the kind of leap that is impossible to project and is exceedingly rare. I’m not big on that kind of projection even if I can list a handful of players that have done it. A standard rate of improvement will see him get up to just poor, and that isn’t good enough.
           
          As for the Leonard thing, I suspect you read that article on Grantland. Yeah, Pop definitely maximized his potential, but I’m accounting for Pope not maxing his potential in the same manner that Leonard did. His potential as a scorer is much higher than Leonard’s since he was much better at it in college. His defensive potential is roughly even despite not being quite as athletic. I will admit this, Pope is not as versatile defensively as Leonard. Pope is strictly a wing defender while Leonard can play some small ball 4, so I can buy an argument that gives Leonard more value defensively. Still, I actually have a higher grade on Pope than I would give Leonard if he were in this draft. I’ll admit my rating on Leonard prior to his draft was higher, but my method of evaluating prospects has been tweaked since then and I’d have given him a lower rating if he was coming out now. Popovich got Leonard to max out his potential, but I think a more average coach could get Pope to Leonard’s level.

          • May 20, 20139:28 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            His shooting improved in the last half of the season, Boehiem even said that maybe he tried to do a little too much. Sorry, on paper Carter-williams talent and potential makes him very unique in this draft. i know we have have become an advanced stat culture, but watch the footage..he makes the offense easy for other players and once again his shooting improved over the last 20 games

          • May 20, 20139:37 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            “”As for the Leonard thing, I suspect you read that article on Grantland. Yeah, Pop definitely maximized his potential, but I’m accounting for Pope not maxing his potential in the same manner that Leonard did.”"

            1. No i didnt read it, but i will. Im not saying Leonard isnt a nice player to have on your roster, but I’ve never been blown away by him. Im not saying POPE wouldnt be a nice player to have on your roster sort of like Roger Mason. But we often forget what a GREAT coaches do for average players.

            “His potential as a scorer is much higher than Leonard’s since he was much better at it in college. His defensive potential is roughly even despite not being quite as athletic. I will admit this, Pope is not as versatile defensively as Leonard. Pope is strictly a wing defender while Leonard can play some small ball 4, so I can buy an argument that gives Leonard more value defensively.”"

            2. didnt see leonard play in college, so i can not compare him to what i’ve seen from POPE…at the end of the day to me so far Pope is no more than a streaky high volume shooter… with no handles, and average athlete in half-court situation.

            I’ve been following Pope closely since, you’ve talked him up…he has a buzz but im just not sold on him

          • May 20, 20139:56 am
            by oats

            Ok, I know full well that his shooting improved. The problem is it didn’t improve by enough. He had a more average 52.2% true shooting percentage and still awful 31.1% 3 point percentage. While 52.2% is decidedly better than 49.8%, the decision to cut 10 really bad games only causes his number to go from bad to roughly average. Considering the strong need for shooting in Detroit, MCW just doesn’t fit on this roster because Detroit really needs floor spacers at all 3 perimeter spots and MCW doesn’t fit the bill.
             
            Plus the turnover thing. Of the top 100 players for the draft in DraftExpress’s database, 75 are college players. MCW is tied for the worst turnover rate of everyone. I guess that’s also technically the 71st best if you want to be charitable since it’s a 4 way tie for the bottom rung. That’s problematic for a team like Detroit that already has Knight and Monroe coughing it up so often. He might be a lottery pick for someone, but not Detroit. He also shouldn’t be a top 10 pick for anyone.

          • May 20, 201310:11 am
            by oats

            The problem with a Roger Mason comparison is that Mason’s never been a good defender ever. He was a poor defender even in San Antonio. Pope already is a good college defender and projects as a good one in the NBA.
             
            I also am not the guy that needs to be told how good Popovich is. I’m of the opinion that he’s the best coach in the modern era of basketball, including ahead of Jackson. Trust me, I’m not underselling Pop’s ability to maximize a player’s skill set. Leonard was an inefficient scorer and mediocre defender in college, but his obvious athletic ability and tremendous rebounding suggested he had potential there. Pop has made him in to a great defender and a smart scorer that can knock down 3s. KCP meanwhile is already an efficient shooter that needs to get a bit more selective to maintain that efficiency on the next level.
             
            As for the streaky shooter thing, that is just a repeat of an argument we’ve already had. My counter is obvious, that he was more consistent as a scorer than your boy Muhammad. You will then counter with bad stats and I will get annoyed. Let’s just skip that part and note that we really disagree on that characterization of Pope.

          • May 20, 201310:18 am
            by tarsier

            I’m glad there is someone else who recognizes the brilliance of Pop. So many people think Jackson is better. Poppovich showed he could maximize insanely talented teams as well as get the dregs of the NBA to overachieve beyond all reasonable expectations. Jackson has only done one of those things. Still makes him an incredible coach, but I’d rather have Pop.

          • May 20, 201311:04 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            “”Considering the strong need for shooting in Detroit, MCW just doesn’t fit on this roster because Detroit really needs floor spacers at all 3 perimeter spots and MCW doesn’t fit the bill”"

            1. No surprise, i disagree…we need a game changer….Knight is a shooter / Scorer, Singler is a shooter. We will likely make a move to trade Stuckey for a shooter …. Our offense is gonna to leave heavy on the Pick and roll offense going forward… a Player like Carter-williams could shine in that offense… We just have to different vision for the Pistons offense.

            “”The problem with a Roger Mason comparison is that Mason’s never been a good defender ever. He was a poor defender even in San Antonio. Pope already is a good college defender and projects as a good one in the NBA”"

            2. Good college defender based off steal per-game? of that he actually lock down on his man? two different things…. Anyway the roger Mason comparison is that far off, mason lives off the 3 ball (your favorite shot) so have Pope… Or maybe a guy like Martell Webster… and I like Wesley Matthews being his ceiling fair?

            “My counter is obvious, that he was more consistent as a scorer than your boy Muhammad. You will then counter with bad stats and I will get annoyed”

            3. LOL….its like playing Madden against your friend everyday…you already know…. but for the Record Cacth and shoot situations percentage… who is better? Exactly!

          • May 20, 201311:51 am
            by I HATE FRANK

            “”Considering the strong need for shooting in Detroit, MCW just doesn’t fit on this roster because Detroit really needs floor spacers at all 3 perimeter spots and MCW doesn’t fit the bill””
            1. No surprise, i disagree…we need a game changer….Knight is a shooter / Scorer, Singler is a shooter. We will likely make a move to trade Stuckey for a shooter …. Our offense is gonna to lean heavy on the Pick and roll offense going forward with our bigs… a Player like Carter-williams could shine in that offense… We just have to different vision for the Pistons offense.
            “”The problem with a Roger Mason comparison is that Mason’s never been a good defender ever. He was a poor defender even in San Antonio. Pope already is a good college defender and projects as a good one in the NBA””
            2. Good college defender based off steal per-game? or that he actually lock down on his man? two different things…. Anyway the roger Mason comparison isnt that far off, mason lives off the 3 ball (your favorite shot) so will Pope… Or maybe a guy like Martell Webster… and lets say Wesley Matthews is his ceiling fair?
            “My counter is obvious, that he was more consistent as a scorer than your boy Muhammad. You will then counter with bad stats and I will get annoyed”
            3. LOL….its like playing Madden against your friend everyday…you already know…. but for the Record Catch and shoot situations percentage… who is better? Exactly!

          • May 20, 20137:08 pm
            by oats

            1) The team does need a game changer, but they also need floor spacing. Neither Monroe nor Drummond have even a mid range shot, and if the point guard can’t draw defenders out to the 3 point line his man will constantly collapse on the big and clutter things up even more. That’s a huge problem. You can have a player or 2 that can’t shoot, but you really can’t have 3. If you have 3 guys that can’t shoot then your team can’t shoot because defenses will just pack the paint and your team won’t be able to shoot over them. So in Detroit, MCW can’t be a difference maker unless Monroe adds an 18 foot jump shot to help clear up space for MCW and Drummond. I don’t think it’s smart to double down on hoping Monroe’s jumper develops and I’d rather just make it imperative that the point guard can hit a shot. That way if Monroe’s jumper never falls the team will have something to fall back on. I wouldn’t build the team around Rondo, Monroe, and Drummond; and I like Rondo much more than MCW. There’s no chance of me wanting to pick up MCW.
             
            2) He did a solid job defending his man. He wasn’t a lock down defender, but the only guy I’d give that label to is Oladipo. Still, he did a solid job playing defense. While I agree that getting steals is not the same as playing defense, guys that get steals have a strong correlation to being good defenders on the next level. So while the steals don’t mean a player is a quality defender, they suggest he is equipped to become one. I’d say Pope is going to be decent for a rookie, but it will take a few years to adjust to the game before he is a legitimately good pro defender. That is true of most players, especially perimeter defenders because they have to learn pro style defenses. I do think Pope will become a good man on defender.
             
            As for the comps, I think they’re low. Pope’s sophomore season is pretty darn close to what Matthews did as a senior. I’ll admit the Big East was better that year than what the SEC was this year, so I’d say Matthews is probably pretty close to his most likely scenario. That would make his ceiling quite a bit higher. Eddie Jones maybe? Those first 4 years in the 2000s looks pretty close to what Pope could do if he absolutely maxed out his potential.
             
            3) Georgia is both worse at passing the ball and scoring than UCLA. The quality of looks is not necessarily identical. Also, a higher percentage of Muhammad’s catch and shoot situations were within 15′ of the basket than it was for Pope. He should have a better catch and shoot percentage, but I will concede that Muhammad is probably better in that situation. Pope meanwhile is much better at pull up jumpers. I will agree that separates him a bit from Leonard stylistically, but not in impact. I care less about catch and shoot situations than true shooting percentage on all attempts.

  • May 19, 20139:09 pm
    by Reaction

    Reply

    I don’t know about you guys but I’m really warming up to Oladipo after watching more flim on him. He’s so explosive etc. The only thing I’m wondering is if he is a good shooter/has a smooth jump shot? I know he can take it to the rack pretty hard. What do you guys think?

    • May 19, 20139:20 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      He’s a solid shooter if he is wide open. That prevents him from being a liability when a team is trying to spread the floor. But not enough of a threat that he would come up in any scouting report. He would just be the typical wing who the other team doesn’t want to get the ball in the corner with space to shoot.

    • May 19, 20139:50 pm
      by Jon

      Reply

      he’s the second coming of tony allen with more offensive upside simply because he’s younger. i’d confidently take that in this draft especially seeing what memphis is doing this postseason today notwithstanding 

      • May 19, 201310:43 pm
        by frankie d

        Reply

        definitely a tony allen clone.  which is not all bad.  in fact, it is pretty good.
        the only question is whether he is worth that high a pick or whether a more “well-rounded” player should be taken.  
        i’ve always felt that defense wins, so i might be inclined to take him.  but i certainly understand the argument that says go in another direction.
        the great thing about this draft is that the pistons get a quality player at 7, no matter what. 

        • May 19, 201311:31 pm
          by oats

          Reply

          Allen can’t hit the open 3 like Oladipo. That shot makes him significantly more valuable than Allen because defenses don’t even guard Allen out there.

          • May 20, 20131:20 am
            by Jon

            if that becomes a constant skill for him then yes he is undoubtedly much more valuable than allen (at this point he’s more valuable regardless due to his youth) but this year is the first time he has been anything more than bad from range so im a little skeptical that he can keep up the marksmanship although not too skeptical given his incredible drive to get better. 

          • May 20, 20132:10 am
            by frankie d

            agree with that assessment.
            i should always add an asterick when comparing oladipo to allen.
            IF his recent shooting prowess is not carried forth in the same manner he will end up more allen than dwayne wade.
            i actually realized that there is another old school player he will probably resemble even more closely: alvin robertson.
            robertson was an allenesque defender, and he also learned how to hit open jumpers well enough so that teams had to respect his shot.
            now, teams dare allen to take any outside jumper.  
            you could not do that with robertson.  while he was never a great, or even a good, shooter, he did work hard enough so that he could hit an open jumper if he had time to set his feet.
            i think oladipo is the same kind of shooter.  
            he is never going to be a smooth or fluid shooter, but he will probably always be proficient enough to hurt any team that tries to cheat off of him, the way teams cheat off of tony allen.   

  • May 19, 201310:17 pm
    by MrCarter

    Reply

    Alright thats it! When exactly did high top fades come back into style?? Between Nerlens Noel, Iman Shumpert, and Norris Cole, I feel like it’s 1989 and I’m at a Kid N Play concert.

  • May 20, 20131:35 am
    by Talan

    Reply

    Noel will probably win defensive player of the year in 7 years. I think he’ll be a great player in the league if he lands with a coach that knows how to use him and a GM that can put the right pieces around him. He clearly has the talent and intangibles to find his niche in the league. The problem is that he is good at things that centers do but he will struggle defending bigger NBA centers. He’ll clog the lane at the four on offense and NBA centers will bulldoze him at the five. 
    Either way, he doesn’t currently fit the most pressing need for the Pistons. It’s safe to say that the four and five starting spots are locked up. Everything else is a competition. Where we are likely picking, we should focus on other prospects. In this order, i like Oladipo, Burke, Porter, McCollum. One of those four should be available when we pick.

    • May 20, 20139:13 am
      by tarsier

      Reply

      I recommend avoiding predictions 7 years out. The odds of being right are probably under 10%. Besides all the other players who will enter the league in the next couple seasons, what about Sanders, Ibaka, and Drummond? They should all be in their primes.

  • May 20, 20132:00 am
    by Talan

    Reply

    The Pistons have so many variables to account for. Will Calderon stay? Who is our coach, and what is his style? Who will we pick up in free agency? Will Knight improve enough to stay a starter and at what position? 
    The draft will be the first answer to many questions. Do teams usually hire a coach before or after the draft? 
    Personally, here’s how I think it will play out. We draft Muhammad. Hire McMillan. Lose Calderon. Overpay Josh Smith. Knight becomes our primary PG. I make another mistake in buying NBA league pass to watch every piston game en route to a 39-43 season.

    • May 20, 20137:28 am
      by Zeiram

      Reply

      Oh my god you just described my nightmare scenario O_O

    • May 20, 20139:12 am
      by Vic

      Reply

      That’s a nightmare…

      Heres a better story:

      Oladipo falls to Pistons at 7
      Nate wolters drops to us and learns behind Jose Calderon and becomes one of the best pgs in this class.
      James Ennis lasts till 56 and becomes the steal of the draft – an athletic SF

      Shooting, defense, and athleticism on the wings with Drummond & Monroe dominating the paint brings the Pistons to the ECF in 2 years

      • May 20, 20139:25 am
        by tarsier

        Reply

        Even better:

        Pisons win the lottery. The Magic are 3rd or 4th and really want Noel. They trade their pick plus Afflalo and a heavily protected future pick for the first overall. The Pistons draft Porter, who turns out to be as good as some of us think he may well be. Phil Jackson decides to recommend hiring himself. Detroit does. The allure of his presence brings in Chris Paul. Detroit also signs Millsap/Jefferson/Smith (at a good price). Detroit swaps Monroe+Stuckey for Love. Noel turns out to be an injury bust and five years later the Pistons finally get Orlando’s pick and it is in the top 3.

        There’s a happy story for you.

        Paul, Afflalo, Porter, Love, Drummond with Knight, Jerebko, and Millsap/Smith/Jefferson off the bench.

        • May 20, 20139:28 am
          by tarsier

          Reply

          That could be one of the all-time great teams. And all it would take is about a billion things going right simultaneously.

  • May 20, 20139:47 am
    by Corey

    Reply

    No to Noel, for a million reasons.  If he fell to us at #7 or #8, ok. But in the top 3? Not a chance. 

    No perimeter offensive skills.  He has to play with a center with range-shooting ability, like a Marc Gasol – not an Andre Drummond. 

    206 pounds? It’s doubtful he can even be a rotation player until he gains at least 20 pounds – and he’d still be pushed around like crazy even at the 4.

    Torn ACL - he’s useless this year. A team that plans to tank next year should draft him. Pistons need to revamp the roster with free agency and trades and go for the playoffs this year. They have enough lottery picks and need to start improving. 

    I’ll join the camp that hopes we get the #1 pick and trade down a few spots.

    • May 20, 201312:08 pm
      by I HATE FRANK

      Reply

      Exactly at Corey….

      Take him off Kentucy and put him on Auburn or Tennesee with the same stats and ACL no one would touch that kid in the first round

      • May 20, 201312:58 pm
        by tarsier

        Reply

        That is some serious hyperbole. He might not be the first overall pick, but he would still be a top prospect.

        More to the point, the reason that is the case is because he would probably put up better stats at one of those weaker schools. Also, those schools have not consistently been putting out prospects that have lived up to or exceeded the hype the way Calipari prospects have. That is an important factor to consider.

        John Calipari is kinda like R.C. Buford, if you know that he likes a guy, that is worth factoring into your assessment of him. 

      • May 20, 20131:01 pm
        by tarsier

        Reply

        He was the number one HS prospect. Those guys just don’t fall out of the first round. The closest that has happened in recent years was Avery Bradley who fell out of the lottery, but he was still easily a first round pick.

        Also, Noel’s stats were phenomenal. The only thing he did to hurt his draft stock was to get injured. He’s too skinny, but so was last draft’s first overall pick. And Davis isn’t looking like a mistake. 

        • May 20, 20131:45 pm
          by I HATE FRANK

          Reply

          He is such a huge risk!

          cmon if someone said theres kid that 6’10 , he’s an amazing shot blocker, rebounds really well…but lack offense, experience, didnt really dominate games consistently, he’s only 206lbs, and he torn an ACL …

          No way you’d all him the number 1 pick in the draft, Jermaine O’neall very similar to Noel physically maybe 210-215(closer to 210) as rookie didnt even get real PT until his 4th year… didnt really make an impact until he was traded to the Pacers in his 5th year…17th pick

          i heard Sam Dalebert, yeah he was shot-blocking and rebounding… but that its…26th pick

          Not the 1st overall or top 5 worth talent….The potential about his offense is like the Pacers drafting jonathan Bender

          • May 20, 20132:03 pm
            by tarsier

            Who isn’t a risk? There is no LeBron or Griffin or Duncan or even Davis in this draft. Noel is a risk, sure, but not particularly more so than anyone else.

            The second most likely guy to go first overall is McLemore. Less risky, maybe. But way less likely to be a star. He could easily turn into a J.J. Redick. 

          • May 20, 20132:19 pm
            by I HATE FRANK

            Let think like this…

            If you had no Picks next year… so the 2014 draft class is out of the picture…

            and you  inherited the Magic 1st , Bobcats 2nd, Cavs 3rd, Suns 4th or the Horents 5th…

            the Guy you are picking your looking to impact right away or in the near future…So the scenario is either you feel like you are one player away, or you need someone that gonna get the fan based excited,.. Give me your draft pick 1 thru 5 and briefly explain why

          • May 20, 20135:20 pm
            by tarsier

            At 1, 2, and 3, I would take Noel, McLemore, and Porter in some order. At 4, 5, and 6, I would take Burke, Bennett, and Oladipo in some order.

            I don’t care about the 2014 draft. Yeah, Noel won’t help as much as some for the 2013-14 season because he will miss some time. But that is a very minor concern. I would care much more about how the player’s career could be expected to go than the next season. 

  • May 20, 201311:08 am
    by joe

    Reply

    Y’all looking at this the wrong way, you can bait a team like the Hawks in for their 17 and 18 picks by offering them the Pistons #7 pick, so the Hawks can draft Steven Adams, Alex Len, or Nerlens Noel, because they need to add a center, because the Hawks want to move Al Horford to power forward. 

    • May 20, 201311:55 am
      by I HATE FRANK

      Reply

      if we did the trade,

      who would you draft at 17 and 18?

      in the NFL its a genius move… in the NBA its risky in a weak draft, and the talent drop off…

    • May 20, 201312:02 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      This isn’t the NFL. In the NBA, you are likely to get more value out of the 7th overall pick than from the 17th and 18th picks.

      2012: Harrison Barnes vs Tyler Zeller and Terrence Jones
      2011: Bismack Biyombo vs Iman Shumpert and Chris Singleton
      2010: Greg Monroe vs Kevin Seraphin and Eric Bledsoe
      2009: Stephen Curry vs Jrue Holiday and Ty Lawson (wow, that was a good year for PGs at all three of those spots)
      2008: Eric Gordon vs Roy Hibbert and JaVale McGee
      2007: Corey Brewer vs Sean Williams and Marco Belinelli
      2006: Randy Foye vs Shawne Williams and Oleksiy Pecherov
      2005: Charlie Villanueva vs Danny Granger and Gerald Green
      2004: Luol Deng vs Josh Smith and J.R. Smith
      2003: Kirk Hinrich vs Zargo Cabarkapa and David West
      2002: Nene Hilario vs Juan Dixon and Curtis Borchardt
      2001: Eddie Griffin vs Michael Bradley and Jason Collins
      2000: Chris Mihm vs Desmond Mason and Quentin Richardson
      1999: Richard Hamilton vs Cal Bowdler and James Posey

      Hmmm… I may have actually convinced myself to change my tune.

      At this point, I’d make that deal with the Detroit pick top 3 protected (that way, if the Pistons drop from the lottery drawing, it doesn’t hurt; but if they rise, it helps). Assuming they wind up picking 7th, I’m not sure if I’d make the trade.

      On draft day, with the “top 6 prospects” all gone, I definitely would. But I don’t know if the Hawks are still interested at that point. But if I knew that one of those 6 would make it to the Pistons, I wouldn’t do it. I just like all of the top 6 prospects a lot more than anyone else in the draft.

      • May 20, 201312:12 pm
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        I still asking ..who i this draft would be at 17 and 18?

        that would fit the Pistons?

        • May 20, 201312:40 pm
          by tarsier

          Reply

          Hard to say who will be on the board at that point. I would count on one of Gobert/Adams/Dieng/Olynyk and one of Saric/Pope/Karasev/Franklin. And you could always hope that one of McCollum/Muhammad/Len/Zeller/MCW falls.

    • May 20, 20131:53 pm
      by vic

      Reply

      I totallly agree with this… I’ve been saying it for about a week. 

      If Oladipo, Porter, Burke, or Mclemore dont fall to #7,
      I’d be perfectly comfortable with getting 17 and 18 from atlanta and picking up 2 of

      Dennis Schroeder
      Tony Mitchell
      KCP
      Dieng

      in that order.

      Schroeder is really good enough to go in the lottery, Tony Mitchell was a top 5 pick last year and still has the same talent level. He’s gotten rid of his SF dreams and is going to suprise everybody like Andre Drummond. Both of those guys  being available would be worth a #7 pick easy. 

      • May 20, 20131:57 pm
        by vic

        Reply

        I’d add Atentokuompo to that list too, at #18

      • May 20, 20132:28 pm
        by G

        Reply

        Ugh. I HATE the back half of this 1st round.

      • May 20, 20133:46 pm
        by I HATE FRANK

        Reply

        Tony Mitchell was never a top 5 pick, he was guy talked about as a potential lottery pick and he is still a potential lottery pick, but not for the pistons.

        And the point guard from germany  is probably lottery  and Pope might not be there

        • May 21, 20131:39 pm
          by G

          Reply

          I agree with the first half of that first sentence at least. I’m kind of meh on Mitchell. Before guys started dropping out of this draft like flies, I expected him to go late-first, early-second round. Now I’d put him anywhere from late lotto to early 20′s.

          I think Schroeder is another long shot to make the lottery. Again, before guys started dropping out he was a 2nd round projection. 

  • May 20, 201312:42 pm
    by joe

    Reply

    First Group:                           Second Group:
    Kentaivous Caldwell-Pope          Sergey Karasev
    Tim Hardaway JR.                   Tony Mitchell
    Glen Rice JR.                         Jamaal Franklin
    Dario Saric                            Tony Snell
    Gorgui Dieng                         Reggie Bullock

    If the Pistons end up with a combination of players from the first group or second group, I think they did a good job. 

     

    • May 20, 201312:50 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      What is the significance of splitting them into two groups? I know I did it, but that was because a lot of the prospects in that range that I like are big men, and the Pistons don’t need to be adding two bigs.

      Yours seem to be mid first-rounders and borderline first-second rounders. If the Pistons were to trade down to 17 and 18, I would hope that they get mid first round talent with both picks. And there is really no need for separate groupings for the 17th and 18th picks since they are consecutive.

      • May 20, 20134:42 pm
        by joe

        Reply

        The reason I break them into two groups, I believe the first group is as good as any player we can draft at #7 and the second group got potential to be solid players. Just judging off the NBA combine, a lot of these guys look over rated, so I would rather the Pistons be smart and let the another team go draft these pipe dreams at #7, why the Pistons trade for two picks and a dress needs.

        • May 20, 20135:16 pm
          by tarsier

          Reply

          The players in your first group are definitely not as good as could be expected from a #7 pick. Most of them will still be around outside of the lottery.

          • May 21, 201311:06 am
            by joe

            On that subject, we can agree to disagree, but i’ll give you one example why I said the first group could be #7 pick. Let’s take Glen Rice JR, nobody in this draft haven’t play against the level of competition that he already have. As a starter in the D league playoffs this kid average 25.5 ppg and like 8.0 rpg per game. So if I’m a GM claiming that I want a player that’s NBA ready, Glen Rice Jr. would have to be your #1 choice, because of his experience in a NBA professional system. If that’s not worth a #7 pick, I don’t know what is?

          • May 21, 201312:01 pm
            by tarsier

            Clearly, you are pretty much alone in this view. Since I don’t think I have seen anything credible projecting Glen Rice Jr as a lottery pick, much less a top 10 pick.

    • May 20, 20131:18 pm
      by I HATE FRANK

      Reply

      Based off of updated mock draft, our current pistons rosters, and team needs

      Kentaivous Caldwell-Pope  - Likely wont be around (Especially according to Oats)
      Sergey Karasev – (We already have him,his name is Singler)        
      Tony Mitchell – (replaces Maxiel rotation guy)
      Glen Rice JR.  - (still project in the 2nd rd)                 
      Jamaal Franklin (could be available at 38)
      Dario Saric   (Lottery Pick)                         
      Tony Snell (We already have him his name is Middleton)
      Gorgui Dieng - (replaces Maxiel)                  
      Reggie Bullock (Could be avaialble at 38)

      So that leaves Tim Hardaway & a rotation guy for the 7th pick ….

      • May 20, 20131:57 pm
        by tarsier

        Reply

        Based on your projections of these guys. The thing is that most likely, the 17th and 18th picks won’t be anything special. The 7th pick is more likely to be someone special. But is it twice as likely? Historically, I’d go with, yeah, the odds are approximately doubled.

        Some of those guys who you just condescendingly dismissed will be very nice players, we just don’t know which. For instance, I’d expect Dieng to be a whole lot better than Maxiell.

        In a vacuum, I would rather have the 7th overall to the 17th and 18th. But if there’s nobody left who I really like at 7? Not so much.

        • May 20, 20132:08 pm
          by I HATE FRANK

          Reply

          I agree about Dieng, and if we didnt have Monroe and Drummond The 17th and 18th pick would make more sense…. But the Pistons need a shot in the dark star to emerge … so like you said i’d take my chance with the 7th pick

          I think 6th or 7th pick is safe place to be….

          • May 20, 20132:36 pm
            by G

            I think top 6 is the place to be. Your odds of winning the #1 pick are almost twice as good at 6 as they are at 7, and pretty much everybody agrees this draft has a definite top 6 and then a drop off.

            For everybody suggesting the Pistons trade back, I’d only advocate that if they could get a really good deal. They have a decent chance of getting a rotation player at #7, but at #17 that chance gets really slim. If they’re getting a pick in next year’s draft, it would need to be a good one (inside the top 14). The Pistons need to bump up their overall talent level. That isn’t going to happen if they keep stocking up on middling prospects.

          • May 20, 20133:51 pm
            by I HATE FRANK

            I believe ShabaZz makes 7 … but that my opinion

          • May 21, 20131:44 pm
            by G

            Shabazz is in the mix with the drop off. Top 6 are fairly established, Shabazz could go 7th or 14th. Guys that could jump into the top 6 are Zeller, Len, McCollum, Gobert, McCollum, Saric, and of course Shabazz. This is more a reflection of idiosyncrasies of different teams & team needs and less a reflection of actual value.

  • May 20, 20132:51 pm
    by frankie d

    Reply

    6th or 7th will land the pistons an excellent player.  no way i trade out of that spot in this draft.  there is a big dropoff after the first 7 or so players.  there is a very good chance that they will be able to plug a huge hole on the perimeter.  why give up that chance?
    btw, the only similarity between snell and middleton is thst both are exceedingly tall young black men who played college BB in the SW.  otherwise, they are totally diffferent prospects.
    snell shoots the way detroit wants middleton to shoot.  and atlhletically, snell blows middleton away in most measurables.  
    if detroit could draft him in the 2nd round it will be a great pick. 

  • May 20, 20133:13 pm
    by frankie d

    Reply

    uh oh…just saw this at espn from chad ford:

    “• New Mexico small forward Tony Snell also appeared to make the leap this weekend from interesting prospect to potential first-round pick. He still has a long way to go as far as proving to scouts he can play with consistent effort, but the raw athletic ability and elite size for his position, combined with smooth shooting touch really improved his stock. I’ve heard his name as high as No. 21 to the Utah Jazz.”
    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog/_/name/nba_draft/id/9294289/2013-nba-draft-combine-sees-steven-adams-tim-hardaway-jr-impress-nerlens-noel-top-pick

    i guess somebody else has noticed what i’ve been saying for a while now.  that i really don’t see that much of a difference between snell and the other supposedly top SGs that were slated for the first round.  i guess stealing him with a second round pick is a dream now.

     

  • May 20, 20133:34 pm
    by danny

    Reply

    Depends on who is left in the draft and what assets we can gain in this trade.  I wouldn’t be against it under the right circumstances.  With that being said I still think there are some scenarios where we come out on top.
    Say hypothetically we do get the first pick we can draft nerlens and trade him.  I do think he would be an amazing player, in time.  The way the nba is going post presence is dying.  You need fast agile guys to run up and down the floor and what better person that him?  Anyways I like the dude.
    Hopefully we get victor or burke.  Those are my two picks for this team, now its time to wait.

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