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Pistons likely to receive No. 6 or No. 7 pick

I consider these NBA lottery odds the most accurate, because they account for not only how likely each seed in the lottery is to receive each pick, but how likely each team is to to finish as each seed. The latter is a bit more difficult to estimate, but huge thanks to Kevin Pelton for providing his computerized projections.

You can view the odds of other teams by checking them in the sidebar of the viz.

Detroit Pistons’ lottery odds

No. 1 pick: 7.3 percent

No. 2 pick: 8.1 percent

No. 3 pick: 9.0 percent

No. 4 pick: 0.9 percent

No. 5 pick: 13.2 percent

No. 6 pick: 29.5 percent

No. 7 pick: 23.9 percent

No. 8 pick: 7.0 percent

No. 9 pick: 1.0 percent

18 Comments

  • Apr 10, 20139:30 pm
    by caliugla

    Reply

    i have one question i read somewere that john wall is set to become a freeagent this year 1 is this true and 2 do u think the pistons could get him

    • Apr 10, 201310:25 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      He was in Monroe’s draft, so no. He will be a FA next offseason. As for whether the Pistons could get him? If he is clearly a max player, then no. Because the Wizards would match any offer. Detroit would have to be willing to pay more than Washington is willing to pay.

    • Apr 10, 201310:50 pm
      by Jay

      Reply

      He is a free agent, but if you’re the Pistons why would you want him? He is essentially Rodney Stuckey with a bit better handle and higher assist rate. He actually shoots a lower percentage from 3pt range than Stuckey, needs to dominate the ball to score and isn’t an elite scorer, isn’t a great defender. Signing Wall would leave the Pistons with no true SG and an undersized back court and without the financial ability to get the pieces they would need at SG and SF. Honestly, the only starting PG that is hitting the market who is worth breaking the bank over is Chris Paul, and he’s not coming to Detroit.
      The better option would be to either through the draft or free agency to pursue a true SG with 3pt range, i.e. O.J. Mayo, Nick Young, Victor Oladipo, or Ben McLemore and a solid SF i.e. Otto Porter, Marco Belielli, Corey Brewer, or Wesley Johnson, and give Brandon Knight the opportunity to run the team with a legitimate starting line-up.
      If Knight succeeds then the Pistons are good to go moving forward, if he sinks then the Pistons grab a PG in the 2014 draft and are solid at all 5 spots.
       
      Personally I’d love to see the Pistons come away from this off season with Nick Young and Otto Porter. I think a line-up of Knight, Young, Porter, Monroe, and Drummond would be a dynamic starting five with great size and defensive ability (probably enough to cover for Monroe’s defensive issues) and extremely versatile scoring ability.

      • Apr 10, 201310:52 pm
        by Jay

        Reply

        *isn’t

      • Apr 10, 201311:46 pm
        by Tyrell

        Reply

        If you think Stuckey and John Wall are essentially equal you haven’t been watching the NBA lately

        • Apr 11, 20134:55 pm
          by Jay

          Reply

          While you are probably right that I haven’t watched enough NBA basketball lately, I’ve watched enough over the years to make the following observations that support my Wall is roughly equivalent to Stuckey statement:
           
          DC 29-50   DET 27-52
          Wall 18.3pts, 7.6asst., 44.8%, 27.5%3pts in 32mins as a starter.
          Stuckey 11.3pts, 3.5asst., 40%, 29.5%3pts in 28.6mins off the bench.
           
          Wall is on the floor with Bradley Beal, Trevor Ariza/Martell Webster, Nene, and Emeka Okafor.
          Stuckey is on the floor with Will Bynum, Charlie V., Jonas (or Daye before the trade), and Singler/Middelton.
          Wall SHOULD be getting more assists because he is the PG, Stuckey plays both depending on the situation but has primarily been a shooting guard this season. Stuckey takes 5 fewer shots per game than Wall and is approximately as efficient. There is little defensive difference except for the fact that Stuckey can guard three positions (although only 2 of them well) where Wall on guards one due to his lack of bulk and strength. Wall also has the better supporting cast in this scenario.
          If Wall were that much of an upgrade over Stuckey, they Wizards would be better than only two games ahead of the Pistons. If you use the baseball junkies WAR scenario, if John Wall is only worth two more wins than Stuckey, is he really so much better that you would break the bank to get him?
          Personally, I wouldn’t.

          • Apr 11, 20135:14 pm
            by oats

            Look at games played this year. Wall has only played in 46, and only started 39. The reason for the 7 games played but not started in was that he was coming in from an injury and not 100%. The Wiz look so much better with Wall than without him that looking at their overall record is kind of pointless. In fact, 24 of the Wizards 29 wins were with Wall on the court. That makes them 24 and 22 with Wall, but 5 and 28 without him. Yeah, he is giving a lot more in that WAR than you think he is.

          • Apr 11, 20135:25 pm
            by oats

            Also, 7 points and 4.1 assists in only an extra 3.4 minutes is a huge difference. So is the difference from 44% from the field to 40%. 44% is roughly average, 40% is bad. These two aren’t close statistically.

          • Apr 11, 20135:26 pm
            by oats

            Sorry, meant to type 44.8%. A roughly 5% swing is just really big.

      • Apr 11, 20138:49 am
        by G

        Reply

        John Wall’s season averages: 18.3 ppg on .448/.275/.819 shooting, 7.6 apg, 3.3 TO
        Last 5 games: 24.6 ppg on .475/.000/.784 shooting, 6.8 apg, 2.6 TO

        Other than both being bad 3PT shooters, I see no resemblance between Stuckey and Wall. Giving Knight the PG spot would be a waste. Knight’s problem wasn’t his teammates, his problem is he isn’t good at running the offense. Teague, Jack, and probably DJ Augustin would all be better options than Knight. Maybe Collison too. 

  • Pingback

    Apr 10, 201310:33 pm
    by Sixers Lose Game, Fans Win Big Macs

    Reply

    [...] a 51% shot of finishing with the 11th worst record,  a 28% shot of 12th, and an 12% shot of 10th. (Check out the full chart at Piston Powered.) Washington won and Minnesota plays the Clippers so the Sixers likely won’t be getting much [...]

  • Apr 10, 201310:43 pm
    by jamesjones_det

    Reply

    Oh, I’m sure we will keep winning so we can get “just the player we want” when they “fall into our lap”…
     
    Here’s to another .350 season with mediocre players.

  • Apr 11, 20136:18 am
    by Scott Carter

    Reply

    Unless we land McLemore or Otto Porter, I still think we should just trade down in the draft. I know Atlanta, Utah, and Minnesota have two 1st round picks that could be attainable with ours, depending on other assets. Regardless of what happens, remember, we’ll have at least $20 million in cap space to play with this summer(could be around $28 million if we amnesty either Villanueva OR Stuckey). Stay positive. This $%&#@! season is almost over.
     

    • Apr 11, 20138:50 am
      by G

      Reply

      Yep, going after lesser talents ALWAYS works, right?

  • Apr 11, 20138:53 am
    by G

    Reply

    By the way, I feel pretty vindicated by that chart. I’ve been saying the Pistons are probably getting the 6th or 7th pick since the win over Chicago. At this point they have nearly an equal chance at landing the #3 pick as they do the #5 pick.

    • May 17, 20139:18 pm
      by I HATE FRANK

      Reply

      I know its sounds foolish…so my disclaimer

      Its a relief that we’ll end up with the 6th or 7th pick in the draft… I’m not sold one anyone that people say should go top 3 …

      Noel is a 206lbs shot blocker
      Mclemore is a sexy pick, but I don’t even believe he will be the best SG to come out of this draft
      Porter compares himself to Prince, a career role player…(Not trying to debate)

      Kinda feel like we’re dodging a bullet….  

  • Pingback

    Apr 12, 201311:58 am
    by Hoop76 Ranks the Tankers

    Reply

    [...] Piston Powered updated the lottery projections on Wednesday, and there’s both good news and bad news for the Sixers. Their odds of landing the #11 pick dropped from 66 percent to 51 percent, but their odds of landing the #12 pick rose from six percent to almost 28 percent. (Again, these projections were updated on Wednesday.) [...]

  • May 17, 20139:10 pm
    by I HATE FRANK

    Reply

    After the Comined…and everything I’ve read,and researched

    Micheal Carter Williams – has moved up my board …. 6’6 PG , that can defense the either guard position, based on combine testing and some footage…you can consider him one of the elite athletes in his draft…shooting is a weakness, but players get better at shooting quicker than ball-handling and passing …

    Shabazz sorry, and I’m not trying to convince anyone of anything, but he is a scorer and he measured well, and he tested well. He has all the tools to be a good offensive and defensive player in the NBA. As many negatives about his game, there are positives..if he’s not your cup of tea I understand, but has that Carmelo Type game… 

    Saric – some people say that he’s the best SF in the draft, and can do everything you’s want out of that position, rebounding, shooting, passing , take over game ability. More than 3rd or 4th option … He’s getting Toni Kukoc and Dranzen Petrovic comparisons for this generation of players

    There are some other fliers out there that I wouldn’t mind but those are my top 3 … Assume a guy like Bennett,or Oladipo doesn’t slip into our hands 
     

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