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Could Andre Drummond win Rookie of the Year even if his minutes don’t increase much?

To answer my own headline, no, probably not. But Andre Drummond is definitely in the conversation, and if Damian Lillard wasn’t the revelation he’s been, Drummond would have an even stronger case for the award. In fact, in a five-on-five on ESPN.com today looking at trimester awards so far for the NBA season, two of the five writers picked Drummond as their ROY choice:

Ian Levy: Drummond. Although he’s still convincing his coach he deserves 20-plus minutes a game, Drummond has been a revelation. He’s answered every question about motor and intensity, while solidifying every assertion of his unique size and athleticism. Lillard is off to a great start as well, but Drummond is clearly headed somewhere special.

Ethan Sherwood Strauss: Drummond. Look, I’m under no illusions. I get that Lillard, Oakland’s version ofChauncey Billups, will take this award. But Drummond’s higher PER gives me an excuse to choose someone who’s made more astounding plays this season. Drummond might not always know what he’s doing, but he’ll crush laws of physics at least once a game, all the while looking like a combination of young Amar’e and young Dwight.

Drummond is simply not playing as many minutes as he deserves yet, and that tends to dominate the conversations around him. But we really should be spending more time just simply discussing (and enjoying) how remarkably well he’s played so soon in his career. He certainly still has a ways to go to be the dominant force he’s capable of, but the fact that he’s far, far closer than anyone could’ve imagined when he was drafted is in itself a saving grace of a season that has otherwise been forgettable in every way.

9 Comments

  • Dec 21, 20122:57 pm
    by dtmfr

    Reply

    As Drummond’s minutes have increased the Pistons continue to lose.
    As Drummond’s minutes increase his per 36 minutes continue to drop.
    As Drummond’s minutes increase his pathetic free throwing is killing the Pistons. Drummond going to the line is equivalent to a Pistons turnover.

    ROY candidate discussion brought up in December is cuz reporters are incredibly lazy and don’t have the journalistic skills to write about something else. 

      

    • Dec 21, 20123:12 pm
      by DasMark

      Reply

      Good points. But, to blame Drummond as the correlating factor in the Pistons losing is laughable. As if Maxiell makes that big of a difference.  

    • Dec 21, 20125:48 pm
      by apa8ren9

      Reply

      Did you go to elementary or high school with Drummond and he beat you up?   I dont know if you are trying to be funny or what but you are wayyy off base.

    • Dec 21, 20126:42 pm
      by jerrific

      Reply

      good point about his freethrow shooting, but that doesnt change the fact that he is playing like the second or third best player on our team, while recieving minutes like he’s the seventh or eight man in the rotation. he consistently approaches a double double while only recieving twenty minutes, and even throws in two or three blocks to go with it. this kid isnt going to be a monster, he is a monster. at the very least he is going to be a game changer on defense. if he develops like the pistons hope he does he could be the first bonafied superstar we’ve had since grant hill’s prime. (unless you count ben wallace, which i do)
       

    • Dec 21, 20127:30 pm
      by tarsier

      Reply

      “Drummond going to the line is equivalent to a Pistons turnover.”

      You are so, so wrong.

      Drummond hits 41% of his free throws, an atrocious number. But let’s dig into that.

      First, it means him going to the line is worth on average 0.82 points right off the bat. It also means 59% of the time there is the possibility of an offensive rebound. That should mean getting the rebound about 15% of the time.

      On average, a team scores about 1.02 points per possession. So when Drummond goes to the line, the Pistons get about .82 points in about .85 of a possession. That is 0.96 points per possession. Below average, and not good if it happening all game, but certainly far better than a TO (which is 0 points per possession and often results in a high percentage fast break for the other team).

      Also, don’t forget the value of putting fouls on the other team. That makes them more likely to foul out and it makes future non-shooting fouls more likely to put Pistons on the stripe. Really, the biggest downside to Drummond shooting free throws is that the best offensive rebounder (Drummond) is in a terrible position to grab a potential miss. So in all, a Drummond free throw shooting possession is less than ideal (but still better than an iso possession).

    • Dec 21, 20128:15 pm
      by Patrick Hayes

      Reply

      @dtmfr:

      I admire your persistence, but persistent trolling is the one thing that gets you banned. You’ve been warned multiple times about it. The warnings will run out soon.

  • Dec 21, 20123:53 pm
    by James

    Reply

    Maxiell is the least aware player on defense that I have seen in a long time (that actually gets time). He is always slow to rotate, doesn’t box out, and really just doesn’t even know what’s happening on defense. He gets a few blocks, but some of his blocks come from being out of position and getting burnt by his own guy.  He also takes far too many outside jumpers. Drummond clearly gives the Pistons a better chance to win, and anybody who has actually watched the game and paid attention knows this.

  • Dec 21, 201210:22 pm
    by Confused

    Reply

    Andre would be the second or third player taken in the draft if he was drafted today. Tonight against Washington he scored 11 points had 14 rebounds and 5 blocks and 1 steal in 21 minutes. I say his stats speak for themselves. Yes sometimes he plays out of position but he makes up for it with his athletisim to recover from his mistakes. I find myself watching only him and not the team when he’s on the floor.
    I think the basketball gods have finally blessed the pistons.

     

  • Dec 21, 201211:08 pm
    by revken

    Reply

    Drummond’s minutes are on the rise, and if he continues to improve he’s a lock for the rookie first team.  He’s clearly the best rebounder, and may be a better shot blocker than Davis, too.  Where he’s lacking is in scoring points, and that almost always comes first for ROY voting.  Still, we’ve got a “diamond in the rough.”  Hopefully his FT shooting will get better, but Ben Wallace’s never did improve much, and he still was a dominant game-changing player.  He’s looking more and more like the best steal in the draft since Greg Monroe.

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