Comments on: Pistons face second-most important lottery in franchise history

By: Max

Max — Sat, 02 Jun 2012 07:57:33 +0000

Why zero percent? I offered a hypothetical in which LeBron was available and the Pistons had the money to sign him. There are no real numbers for these things since it would entirely depend of LeBron’s own whim.
LeBron isn’t the point anyway……I could have said Kevin Love, Blake Griffen or Josh Smith.
My point was about placing such emphasis and importance on something because it merely had the potential to turn out well even though the odds were overwhelmingly against it. 6 percent chance isn’t so great? I’d give any of the worst teams of all time a better chance to win a game against one of the best teams of all time than that. 6 percent is terrible.
6 percent is don’t bother showing up and I don’t know that the 2nd or 3rd pick is such a big deal or so much better than the 9th anyway. In either of the past two drafts, the Pistons may well have done worse if they had gotten a 2nd or 3rd pick. They had less than a 2 percent chance at the game changer in Anthony Davis and it wasn’t really worth thinking about. If a team had a 1.7 percent chance or whatever to win the title according to Vegas before the season started would you give the team a second thought as title contenders? Of course not.

By: Max

Max — Sat, 02 Jun 2012 07:41:52 +0000

I started off the hypothetical I offered by saying LeBron was available so his current contract status wasn’t what I was postulating.

By: Dan Feldman

Dan Feldman — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 18:58:50 +0000

That’s a poor analogy.

The Pistons had a 6.1 percent chance of moving into the top three of this draft. If the Pistons do as well next year as Milwaukee did this year, that falls by more than half. If the Pistons do a bit better than that and make the playoffs, it drops to 0. Although 6.1 percent isn’t great, it’s far better than it will likely be in the next few years.

The Pistons have a 0 percent chance of signing LeBron in any year. It’s a constant. Their lottery odds are not.

By: Max

Max — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 08:16:49 +0000

A better analogy would be free agency. LeBron is available and the Pistons have the money, but so does NY, LAL. BOS, ORL, MIA, SAC, GS and CHAR. The Pistons squad at the time isn’t very good and doesn’t offer LeBron much incentive to sign and several of the others teams are contenders he can put over the top.
A blogger for the Pistons writes a story entitled, “The Most Important Free Agency Summer in Pistons History” simply because LeBron is available and the team technically can sign him while knowing there is almost no chance or reason to think he will sign with the team.
Isn’t that a deflating premise to a fan of the team and doesn’t it fail to capture the team’s true narrative since the management and fans of the team were never really in the position to be thinking of drafting so high anyway?

By: Max

Max — Wed, 30 May 2012 20:26:06 +0000

I understand the post…..I disagree with its premise and a big reason is that while I hope the Pistons will move up, they have so miniscule a chance of doing so. Therefore, the premise seems provocative and mean spirited to me because it placing such a large emphasis and a situation that is overwhelming likely to not work out for the team while suggesting it could possible be the team’s final chance to land a major star to go with the young nucleus. I replied by basically saying the Pistons still have a 2-3 years to add the players and it doesn’t have to be through the lottery.

By: Max

Max — Wed, 30 May 2012 20:21:00 +0000

You could have made the same argument regarding the importance of the Darko pick but it was the surprise of the ‘Sheed trade that turned them into true contenders.

By: tarsier

tarsier — Wed, 30 May 2012 09:39:54 +0000

Hmmm, if they had stayed at 6, it is nearly a guarantee that they still would have gotten Monroe. If they had moved to the top 3, they probably would have gotten Wall, Favors, or Cousins. So you think the most important lottery in Pistons history is the difference between Monroe and one of those three while they were near the beginning of a couple years of .300-.400 ball?

By: tarsier

tarsier — Wed, 30 May 2012 09:32:45 +0000

And this is why people say you really don’t understand the post. The level of importance of the lottery for the Pistons is all about how much difference it would make on the franchise if they win or not. Think of it like the importance of a single roulette bet. If the difference between winning or losing is getting a new Aveo or a new Boxter, that is less important than if the difference is between being able to keep your house or moving into a motel.

By: Eric

Eric — Wed, 30 May 2012 06:31:43 +0000

optimistic hope*

By: Eric

Eric — Wed, 30 May 2012 06:31:23 +0000

How would you give me “50 to 1 odds.” Lol you’re so funny. My original post was a display of optimistically hope. K got that?