Comments on: Learn your lottery terminology

By: temporary hair dye

temporary hair dye — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 03:41:59 +0000

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By: Haan

Haan — Wed, 30 May 2012 13:41:51 +0000

Thanks for your lucid explanation, Oats. Big night!

By: tarsier

tarsier — Wed, 30 May 2012 13:41:26 +0000

This was my initial reaction as well. But upon thinking about it, I am guessing many people actually don’t realize how the lottery works. Not that it really matters, but knowing more is never bad. That said, I will continue to say “________ are playing for ping pong balls” because it is simpler and less awkward sounding than “________ are playing for ping pong ball combinations.”

By: Victor Fontana

Victor Fontana — Wed, 30 May 2012 13:20:18 +0000

Ping pong balls are nice. If the Pistons don’t have one, they should get one.

By: oats

oats — Wed, 30 May 2012 07:39:37 +0000

That is the order they do it in. The odds we have now don’t have the benefit of knowing the actual results, so they have to determine the odds of all possible outcomes. In short, we know what the current odds of Detroit getting picks 2 or 3 are, but those odds will be different at the time of the drawing for those picks.

By: oats

oats — Wed, 30 May 2012 06:54:36 +0000

The math is 14!/(10! x 4!). The end result is 1,001 possible outcomes. I could show the math, but that is kind of pointless if we already know the result.

The number of digits on the balls doesn’t actually matter. 10-3-2-1 is not significantly different from 4-3-2-1 as far as the process is concerned. All that matters is that the 4 numbers are different from each other. Since the drawing is done with only 14 balls in the hopper, there is no chance of 3-3-2-1.

As for the 1001st combination, that is in fact the drawing of 11-12-13-14. That number is unassigned and would require a redraw. That number hasn’t actually happened yet, but that is the result if it were to be called. This is the same thing that would happen if a number assigned to a selection that has already won in the lottery were to be called. Redraws should be pretty obvious, the balls are replaced into the hopper and drawn again, just like a first time drawing, and the numbers get compared to available numbers.

They also don’t place numbers in the envelopes. They place team logos in envelopes that have the number of the pick on them. Yes, that is nitpicking what you said, but still. The envelopes are set up to make a more entertaining way of presenting the results than the process they use to determine the picks. That said, yes, only the first 3 picks are drawn, and the remainder assigned by the way the rest of the 11 teams placed in the regular season.

By: oats

oats — Wed, 30 May 2012 06:29:52 +0000

They don’t pick for the teams individually. They do the first pick, and compare that combination to a set of numbers assigned to various teams. Whichever team matches up gets the first pick. They are no longer eligible to win the lottery with the set of numbers assigned to them for that seeding (although if they have multiple lottery selections they could still get picked for the numbers assigned to the other selection). They then repeat the drawing for the 2nd and 3rd picks. After these 3 picks are assigned, the remainder of the picks are giving out in order of who had the worst record and did not win in the lottery. So, if 1-5-7-8 were selected the team who has that assigned to them gets whichever pick it was drawn for. Should the Pistons not get picked in those 3 picks, they will select 9th, or lower if a team below them got to jump them by winning one of the lottery selections.

By: Haan

Haan — Wed, 30 May 2012 05:39:07 +0000

I don’t think the public knows which specific combination(s) go with which team, Jon, just the likelihood of each team winning the top pick. We know the proportion of combinations for the top choice in advance, but not the particular combinations.

(btw, it’s dawned on me that the issue of the one unassigned combination has been addressed.)

The probabilities of the Pistons gaining the first, second, and third picks have been announced. It occurs to me, however, that depending on on the procedure, we may just know the probability regarding #1 with certainty because the probabilities concerning #2 and #3 become fixed only during the course of the drawing. Say Charlotte with its 250 combinations wins the first pick. According to one possible procedure, the Pistons would then have its opening share of the 1000 combinations minus the 250 of Charlotte’s which are now dead. That situation would be far more favorable to the Pistons than one in which the best lottery team wins number one, removing/deadening the fewest number of combinations. If the least likely team wins top pick, Charlotte would have its initial 250 combinations come the drawing for #2, leaving the Pistons with a much lower probability of winning #2 than if the best lottery team won #1. You can give a % in advance of the drawing, but you don’t know the Pistons’ odds at the moment of drawing for #2 or #3 until the earlier pick(s) occur(s). There would be other ways of doing it, but that strikes me as the most likely procedure. Of course the announcement counts down to #1, but the drawing must happen from #1 to #3.

By: Mike Payne

Mike Payne — Wed, 30 May 2012 05:28:55 +0000

With regard to the draft lottery, the phrases “lottery balls” and “ping pong balls” are representational colloquialisms. They’re not intended literally.

“I wish the Pistons would’ve tanked to get [a greater number of ping pong ball combinations]“.

If someone says, “go ping pong!!!”, is their message not clearly communicated? Learn your social understanding of terminology.

By: Mike Herrington

Mike Herrington — Wed, 30 May 2012 05:11:10 +0000

Pistons will get the first pick. I am a time traveler from the future.