Comments on: Detroit Pistons #DraftDreams: Andre Drummond

By: Shelton

Shelton — Wed, 30 May 2012 12:20:13 +0000

These are a couple scenarios I like take Beal,Barnes,orPJones3 and trade Kyle zingler to move up in the draft to get melo or mabey take a risk and wait for next year and try to get Patric Young and get Beal or Barnes(if we cant get Davis

By: Shelton

Shelton — Wed, 30 May 2012 12:17:25 +0000

These are a couple scenarios I like take Beal,Barnes,orPJones3 and trade Kyle zingler to move up in the draft to get melo or mabe take arise and wait for next year and try to get Patric Young and get Beal or Barnes(if we cant get Davis

By: Johm

Johm — Tue, 08 May 2012 00:00:15 +0000

have you talked to Joe? is he going to trade??

By: oats

oats — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 06:04:21 +0000

I disagree on his floor, which I think is short Jordan Hill. I definitely won’t concede he will be an athletic energy 4 since I don’t even know that he is a 4. He might be a big 3, even if he doesn’t shoot 3s, although I will agree that PF is his most likely position. I also don’t see a potential top 30 NBA player as a likely outcome for him. I’d liken his potential to Danny Granger, a nice player to be certain, and maybe a fringe All Star if he puts up stats on a bad team, but not top 30. Considering his significant bust potential, I think that is a huge risk in the top 10. This draft is loaded with guys with high ceilings, you aren’t just choosing between McAdoo and Zeller. That’s why instead of taking McAdoo I’d rather trade down and get a different guy. Royce White and Tony Mitchell are both guys who look like they could be good pros, and they are universally projected outside of the top 10. Henson is a proven shot blocker and rebounder, skills that generally translate to the NBA. Meyers Leonard could definitely become a great defensive big, and he isn’t likely to be in the lottery. Kendall Marshall could be an upgrade in the back court, although Pistons fans would be upset at Brandon Knight moving to the bench. Austin Rivers could give us a 3rd interchangeable combo guard and make the Pistons a nightmare to defend even with the starters out. I don’t know if he’s willing to do it, but Jeremy Lamb could be a stud perimeter defender if he focuses on that, and he could be really valuable if he realizes that he isn’t a great 3 point shooter. That’s my problem with McAdoo, he has the potential to bust and this draft is loaded with guys that I would consider better value given their relative draft position.

By the way, I’m fond of Drummond, and I concede he could bust too. You can’t avoid bust potential in this draft, you just take the best gamble you can. I’d bet on Drummond because I know what he definitely does, which is block shots. I don’t know what McAdoo definitely does since his stats off the bench are so unreliable (too tough to project based on 15 minutes, which is probably good since he’s a PF that shoots 41% from the field. I think he rebounds and can score thanks to his speed, although I question how well he defends. I don’t know any of that though). That’s part of the problem with McAdoo, the answer could be that he doesn’t have an NBA skill, and that is the worst possible bust scenario. I get why McAdoo is a top 10 pick, I just don’t want to be the guy making that move when I can move down and get someone else while also adding another potential asset. Heck, the buzz on McAdoo is strong enough you might be able to unload a bad contract while moving down in the first round. If McAdoo is atop my draft board when the Pistons pick, I want them trading out of it.

By: RationalSportsFan

RationalSportsFan — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 05:21:46 +0000

Anybody who makes any claims about any prospects better be ready to look foolish at times. Even the greatest scouts with the best track records still have big misses. This is true in all sports.

A freshman (like McAdoo) who had limited playing time might be more susceptible to being a bust than a known quantity like a senior. But, McAdoo also has a ceiling that blows away basically every upperclassmen in this year’s draft. A drafting team must weigh that ceiling vs that basement, and judge whether they prefer that over a known entity. Compare McAdoo to his teammate, Tyler Zeller. We can probably say pretty confidently that Tyler Zeller will be a solid backup center on a good team. His basement and his ceiling are pretty close to each other. Would you prefer that over McAdoo, whose reasonable basement is probably an athletic energy 4 off the bench, but whose ceiling may a top 30 player in the Association? Some GM’s/evaluators DO prefer the sure thing. I find this to be the incorrect path.

The fact that we have less information about McAdoo than we prefer is not enough to make us avoid him as a potential prospect. Rather, we gotta judge him on the available information (and, thus, downplay his collegiate stats/performance, as he was never given a full chance there). If he declares himself for the draft, front offices have to make a decision on the likelihood of him reaching various levels of effectiveness, and judge whether he is worth a high pick (even if they recognize bust potential).

The idea (not necessarily from you, Oats, but prevalent here and elsewhere) that you should avoid anyone with bust potential is downright silly. You have to weigh the “bust-ability” against the players potential ceiling. If you KNEW Player X had a 50% chance of being a bust, but a 50% chance of being Michael Jordan, you better take X number one overall (extreme non-real world example, but you get the point).

By: oats

oats — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 04:48:30 +0000

By that logic Marvin Williams is an all pro waiting to happen. He was a great high school player, he shoots the 3, and is a fantastic athlete. What’s more, he is really great at rebounding for a wing player. He has tools for days… I hate that I’m bringing up this comparison again since you already correctly pointed out that the similarities between these players aren’t that strong because they do different things. My point still stands, without seeing him play any real length of time against quality competition it is far too difficult to figure out what his real flaws are. So we are only looking at his positives, and his positives are that he can do some of everything, has good size, and is a solid athlete. We don’t know what he does well enough to contribute in the NBA with, it’s harder to figure out his NBA position since we haven’t seen what he is in the college game yet (is he a 3 or the 4 in the NBA? I suspect a 3, but I’ve heard scouts give either answer), and we don’t know what deficiencies he has. I just don’t think it is smart to base a player on evaluations we know are flawed. He is more than just the sum of his positive assets, like every player he has flaws, and without a chance to find them you could be making a huge mistake. Only looking at a player in a vacuum is absurd because he doesn’t play in a vacuum, he plays on a team. What he can do in an empty gym is not relevant to what he can do in the NBA. Yes, that is a part of the evaluation process, and it is important to know that a guy may have skills he hasn’t displayed in college (Monroe was a terrible offensive rebounder at Georgetown, and now is one of the best at it in the NBA. I assumed it was because of his spot in the offense taking him away from the glass too much, and it seems that was a likely guess). That doesn’t mean you ignore what happens on the court. There are a lot of good high school players that never become good pros. That’s why so many straight from high school guys crapped out in the NBA. All of those guys had roughly as much going for them as McAdoo does at this point. A lot of those guys theoretically have things that make them useful players, and they also had flaws that hadn’t been subjected to the kind of competition required to spot them. I’m not saying McAdoo will definitely bust, I’m just saying we know very little about him.

By the way, I do wish I wasn’t taking this stance on McAdoo since he does seem to be a guy who could make me look foolish. When I watch him I see a guy who will likely be a dominant player next year and a high draft pick if he decides to stay in school. Even if he goes pro now, he could totally be a great pro and make me look dumb. The difference between me and the average GM is that I don’t mind looking dumb because one guy outperforms expectations. The exceptions don’t change the fact that taking a college back up is extremely risky. So, to be more precise, GMs think he will be good but haven’t seen enough of him to know that for a fact. I know that is true of every draft pick, which was kind of the point I was just making, but it’s even more true for a guy like McAdoo. I don’t get how anyone could question that it is tough to project college back ups as good starters in the NBA, and if he goes in the top 10 that is what they would be projecting.

By: Max

Max — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 04:33:57 +0000

I actually think both Zellars will be decent pros but I’d draft Cody first.

By: RationalSportsFan

RationalSportsFan — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 03:13:10 +0000

re: McAdoo and your claim that “we’ve seen so little of him that who knows if he is actually good”…sure if you only watch guys in collegiate games and ignore all high school games and underlying skill scouting, then yes, we don;t know if McAdoo will be any good.

If, however, you give a full scouting eye to McAdoo (including high school performance and general ability evaluation), then you will see McAdoo as one of the premier talents in the draft.

Many commenters on this site seem to base ALL of their scouting thoughts on what they see in random college games, where oftentimes prospects are playing with a coach who prefers to fit every player into the same system regardless of skill-set. You have to look past those limitations and try to see abilities in a vacuum. In this regard, McAdoo is a premier prospect (as basically every NBA front office says as well).

By: Roit

Roit — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 02:26:16 +0000

Drummond Drummond Drummond. I love this guy.

By: RationalSportsFan

RationalSportsFan — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 01:39:20 +0000

Like the list. I have some serious differences (I am still a Barnes believer). Worth noting that Patric Young, McDermott, and Kabongo all confirmed that they are coming back to school next year, so might wanna edit them off your list.