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Archive → October, 2011

October 12th, 2011

Ben Gordon: NBA lockout could last two more years

Ben Gordon, via Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press:

"I think there will be more games missed," Gordon said when reached by phone as he was driving to Chicago. "I expect it might be a year or two. I realized that when I was listening to both sides during the negotiations. I think there will be a lot of games missed and more money is going to go down the drain.

Why is Gordon so pessimistic? Previous negotiations with the owners. Via Ellis:

"It just seemed scripted, and they were going through the motions," said Gordon, calling it a valuable learning experience. "Sitting there in front of them you could tell they weren’t focused on getting a deal. I still don’t know the purpose of those meetings."

Gordon – both because of his large contract and visibility in labor negotiations – has become the Pistons’ face of the lockout. The interest certainly fits with his previous training .

So, I wonder why isn’t Gordon the Pistons’ player representative?*

*It’s Austin Daye, and Jason Maxiell is his alternate. I thought Maxiell held the position. Does anyone know when Daye took over?

By Dan Feldman • Posted in Notes • 9 Comments
October 11th, 2011

Pistons logos nearly garner best, worst ranking

I ranked the NBA’s best and worst logos each season at Basketball Prospectus, and although the Pistons didn’t make either cut, they came close twice.

The Pistons nearly had the best logo in 1995-96 with this:

Unfortunately, the Jazz with a cool stylized ‘J’ took the No. 1 spot:

The next season, the Pistons nearly had the NBA’s worst logo, thanks to this monstrosity:

If I were ranking uniforms, the Pistons would’ve had a strong case. But because I was ranking only logos, the Rockets were worst:

If you want to see my complete rankings, check out the Basketball Prospectus post.

By Dan Feldman • Posted in Notes • 3 Comments
October 10th, 2011

Chevette to Corvette No. 46: The 1959-60 Detroit Pistons

Facts

  • Actual record: 30-45
  • Pythagorean record: 30-45
  • Points scored per game: 111.6 (6th of 8)
  • Points allowed per game: 115.0 (3rd of 8)
  • Arena: Detroit Olympia
  • Head coach: Red Rocha (13-21), Dick McGuire (17-24)

Playoffs

  • Lost in first round to the Minneapolis Lakers, 2-0

Leaders

  • Points per game: Gene Shue (22.8)
  • Rebounds per game: Walter Dukes (13.4)
  • Assists per game: Dick McGuire (5.3)


Top player

Gene Shue

Shue averaged 22.8 points, a career high, 5.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game – landing him seventh in Most Valuable Player voting.

Teammate Walter Dukes (15.2 points and 13.4 rebounds per game) also had a fine season, finishing 11th in MVP voting.


Key transaction

Drafted Bailey Howell with No. 2 pick

Howell had a remarkable career at Mississippi State, and it appears to be the primary reason he made the Hall of Fame. His NBA career was pretty stellar too, evidenced by his career averages of 18.7 points and 9.9 rebounds per game in 12 NBA seasons, the first five with the Pistons.

He likely would’ve won Rookie of the Year if it weren’t for a first-year center named in Philadelphia named Wilt Chamberlain.

Trend watch

First highly successful draft pick in nine years

Howell was the Pistons’ first draft pick with at least 15 career win shares since George Yardley in 1950. Although win shares isn’t a perfect stat, it provides a rough measure of a player’s overall value. For perspective, Howell had 114.8 career win shares.

All that poor drafting was a big reason the Pistons struggled in this era.

Why this season ranks No. 46

As was often the case in their first 20 years in the NBA, the Pistons struggled so much, they fired their coach during the season. This time, that meant replacing Red Rocha with Dick McGuire.

The switch didn’t make much difference, and the Pistons finished 30-45 to claim the No. 2 seed (of three playoff teams) in the lowly Western Division. They were swept by the third-seeded and 25-50 Minneapolis Lakers, who lost to the St. Louis Hawks, who lost to the Boston Celtics.

The transitive theory says the Pistons were the NBA’s worst playoff team.

Previously

By Dan Feldman • Posted in Chevette to Corvette, Pistons History • 1 Comment
October 10th, 2011

Kobe Bryant explains why Pistons should have foreseen Kwame Brown’s struggles

Kobe Bryant, via Michael Lee of The Washington Post:

But like, the game before we traded for Pau, were playing Detroit and I had like 40 points towards the end of the game. This is back when Detroit had Rasheed [Wallace], Chauncey [Billups] and those guys, so we had no business being in the game. So down the stretch of the game, they put in a box and one. So I’m surrounded by these players, Detroit players, and Kwame is under the basket, all by himself. Literally, like all by himself. So I pass him the ball, he bobbled it and it goes out of bounds.

“So we go back to the timeout and I’m [upset], right? He goes, ‘I was wide open.’ ‘Yeah, I know.’ This is how I’m talking to him, like, during the game. I said, ‘You’re going to be open again, Kwame, because Rasheed is just totally ignoring you.’ He said, ‘Well, if I’m open don’t throw it to me.’ I was like, ‘Huh?’ He said, ‘Don’t throw it to me.’ I said, ‘Why not?’ He said, well, ‘I’m nervous. If I catch it and they foul me, I won’t make the free throws.’ I said, ‘Hell no!’

“I go to Phil [Jackson], I say, ‘Hey Phil, take him out of the game.’ He’s like, ‘Nah, let him figure it out.’ So, we lose the game, I go the locker room, I’m steaming. Steaming. I’m furious.

The next offseason, the Pistons gave Kwame Brown a two-year, $8 million contract. Maybe they should have paid a bit more attention to that 2008 game.* I understand you can’t get a perfect player for $4 million per year, and Brown played well for a stretch in Detroit, but I wouldn’t want him helping to shape the team’s identity.

*Kobe had 11 turnovers to Brown’s none in, but I supposed Kwame can’t be charged with a turnover if he never gains possession of the ball. It’s a good example of how blindly relying on stats can be misleading.

By Dan Feldman • Posted in Notes • 9 Comments
October 7th, 2011

Chevette to Corvette No. 47: The 1958-59

Facts

  • Actual record: 28-44
  • Pythagorean record: 33-39
  • Points per game: 105.1 (6th of 8)
  • Opponent points per game: 106.3 (3rd of 8)
  • Arena: Detroit Olympia
  • Head coach: Red Rocha

Leaders

  • Points per game: George Yardley (20.8)
  • Rebounds per game: Walter Dukes (13.3)
  • Assists per game: Dick McGuire (6.2)

Top player

George Yardley

Yardley, an explosive scoring forward, was the Pistons’ first legitimate star. One year after leading the Pistons to the Finals by leading the league in scoring and becoming the first player in NBA history to score 2,000 points in a season, Yardley once again was Detroit’s top offensive player much of the 1958-59 season. The secrets to his success as a player are described in his New York Times’ obituary:

… the 6-foot-5 Yardley was an outstanding leaper and one of pro basketball’s early jump-shot artists.

”He had probably the quickest release of anybody in the N.B.A.,” Bill Sharman, the former star guard of the Boston Celtics, once told The Los Angeles Times. ”He was a deadly shooter and one of the only ones dunking the ball back then.”

Yardley, in the book ”From Set Shot to Slam Dunk,” told Charles Salzberg that he was probably the best jumper in the league. ”There might have been others who were good jumpers,” Yardley recalled, ”but I could move my body well to either side while in the air and still control my shot.”

Yardley was an All-Star in six of his seven NBA seasons. He was also an intelligent player off the court, starting his own engineering firm after his playing career ended. According to his biography on his company’s website, Yardley is the only player in league history who was a teammate of all three of the league’s first three black players — Nathaniel ‘Sweetwater’ Clifton, Chuck Cooper and Earl Lloyd. Yardley sounds exactly like the type of franchise player a team would want to keep around for a long time …

Key transaction

Pistons trade George Yardley to Syracuse for Ed Conlin

I already alluded to the fact that the Pistons traded one of their early iconic players, Dave DeBusschere, in a previous post. Well, it appears that shipping off the team’s best players was a common occurrence in the early history of the team. Yardley was traded during the season to Syracuse for Ed Conlin, a journeyman wing who averaged just 11 points per game in parts of two seasons with Detroit. Yardley, meanwhile, would go on to become an All-Star once again the following season in Syracuse before retiring at age 31 to allow his daughter to start kindergarten in his native California. His bio states that he had other opportunities to play, but contract constraints prevented him from doing so:

He retires as an All Star, averaging over 20 points a game in his final season. He does this in order to allow his daughter, Marilyn, to enter kindergarten in California.

Added note: Syracuse/Philadelphia retains George’s rights. The Lakers try to sign George repeatedly, but Syracuse/Philadelphia insists on the rights to Jerry West or Elgin Baylor in return. No deal is ever consummated.

Now, it’s obvious why the Lakers wouldn’t give up West or Baylor for Yardley, but it does speak to how highly thought of Yardley was at the time that a team would even have the gall to ask for either player, both among the greatest NBA players of all time, in return.

Trend watch

The quest for .500

The 1958-59 season, the second the franchise was in Detroit, also happened to be the second worst record the Pistons had in franchise history. Fortunately, six teams in the eight-team league made the playoffs, so the Pistons’ streak of playoff appearances was extended to 10 straight. But the Pistons were on a more elusive quest: returning to the .500 mark. This was the team’s third straight sub-.500 finish and — without giving too much away — this streak will stay alive for some time.

Why this season ranks No. 47

After trading Yardley, the Pistons found themselves in an identity crisis. The key remaining players were Gene Shue, Phil Jordon, Walter Dukes and Dick McGuire, but McGuire was 33-years-old. Dukes was a good rebounder, but it’s a bit of a problem when your center is a 37 percent shooter. Jordon was traded to Cincinnati in the offseason. The Pistons continued to be competitive enough to sneak into the playoffs, but as we’ve seen throughout the team’s history, recovering from trading a franchise player for less than equal value is no easy task.

Previously

By Patrick Hayes • Posted in Chevette to Corvette, Pistons History • 1 Comment
October 6th, 2011

Chevette to Corvette No. 48: The 1951-52 Fort Wayne Pistons

Facts

  • Actual record: 29-37
  • Pythagorean record: 27-39
  • Points Per Game: 78.0 (9th of 10)
  • Opponent points per game: 80.1 (2nd of 10)
  • Arena: North Side High School Gym
  • Head coaches: Paul Birch

Playoffs

  • Lost in first round to the Rochester Royals, 2-0

Leaders

  • Points per game: Frankie Brian (15.9)
  • Rebounds per game: Larry Foust (13.3)
  • Assists per game: Fred Schaus (4.0)

Top player

Larry Foust

In his second season, Faust averaged 15.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and a career-high 3.0 assists per game to make the All-NBA second team. That recognition earned Foust a $100 bonus, according to Rodger Nelson’s “The Zollner Piston Story.”

Key transaction

Traded Bill Sharman to the Boston Celtics for Chuck Share

During the 1950-51 season, the Washington Capitols folded with a 10-25 record. So the remaining NBA teams held a dispersal draft in January to re-assign the Capitols’ players. Wisely, the Pistons took Bill Sharman, a rookie who was leading Washington with 12.2 points per game.

But Sharman, who was also pursuing a professional baseball career, refused to report to Fort Wayne, according to Ralph Hickock. Sharman sat out the rest of the NBA season following the Capitols’ demise, leaving the Pistons to handle him in the offseason.

The Pistons had wanted Share for a while, and they even thought they had acquired him earlier.

Boston drafted Share with the No. 1 overall pick in 1950,* but he opted to join the Waterloo Hawks of the National Professional Basketball League. Nelson:

Share remembered, "I was attending Bowling Green in Ohio when the Celtics drafted me. I found out when I read it in the Toledo Blade. I was contacted by Boston and I signed, I forgot for how much. Then I was contacted by a team from Waterloo, Iowa, that played in the National Professional Basketball League. They put $2500 on the table and said, Tf you sign with us, you can take this money with you now.’ I was engaged and $2,500 was a lot of money, so I signed with them, too. I even played with Waterloo for a month, then the league folded.

He tried to sign with the Pistons, who had agreed to send a first-round pick to Boston in exchange for permission to buy Share from Waterloo, according to the Associated Press. But NBA President Maurice Podoloff nixed that arrangement.

 *The Celtics infamously passed on Bob Cousy, who starred at nearby Holy Cross  and was drafted third by the Tri-Cities Blackhawks, to pick Share. Larry Schwartz for ESPN.com:

Boston had the first pick in the 1950 NBA draft, and Auerbach selected 6-11 center Chuck Share of Bowling Green. After being criticized by the Boston media, Auerbach responded: "We need a big man. Little men are a dime a dozen. I’m supposed to win, not go after local yokels."

Of course, the Celtics later acquired Cousy.

As a workaround, the Pistons traded Sharman to get their man. Share, 6-foot-11 and 235 pounds, had the size they coveted, but he never blossomed into an impact player with the Pistons. His best years, highlighted by a 14 and 11 season in 1955-56, came with the Hawks, and his nine-year career was a major letdown for a No. 1 overall pick.

Sharman? He became a Hall of Famer as a player and coach and was named one of the NBA’s 50 greatest players. I doubt the Pistons ever saw that potential before trading him, and at the time, there was his baseball career to worry about, though that latter concern didn’t stymie the Celtics.

Between the Pistons trading him and the 1951-52 season, Sharman had a unique experience with the Dodgers. Golden Baseball Magazine:

So why are we talking about Bill Sharman on this baseball page? Because of this odd fact: Although he never appeared in a major league game, he was ejected from one.

In September 1951, Bill was called up to the Dodgers, who were trying to stave off the hard-charging New York Giants for the pennant.

In a tense game September 27 against the Braves in Boston, the score was 3-3 when umpire Frank Dascoli called Bob Addis safe at home on a single in the bottom of the eighth. C Roy Campanella, who thought he had the plate blocked, screamed in protest. Campy, manager Chuck Dressen, P Preacher Roe, and coach Cookie Lavagetto were all ejected. To prevent more problems,Dascoli ordered all Dodgers on the bench, including Sharman, to the clubhouse.

Sharman played baseball a couple more seasons, but he became a lot more committed to basketball after that. By that time, though, the Pistons had already traded him.

Maybe the Pistons never would have convinced him to join him to join them. Or maybe he would’ve given up baseball and joined Fort Wayne.

Either way, the Celtics got a an all-time great, and the Pistons got nowhere.

Trend watch

Back-to-back losing seasons

For the first time since becoming a professional team, the Pistons posted consecutive losing seasons. On the bright side, they made the playoffs both those years.

Why this season ranks No. 51

Not a single NBA team had a winning road record this season. For most teams, that was a bit inexplicable and random. For the Pistons, who went 22-11 in Fort Wayne and 7-25 elsewhere, it was completely expected. Nelson:

Fred Schaus made a partial explanation for the Pistons’ road record by comparing North Side with the other venues in the league. Each court had its own characteristics. Among other things, the fans at North Side sat almost on top of the players. While the Pistons were used to it, the other teams were not. Although the court in Boston was very short, most of the others were larger. Schaus said, "We loved it there at North Side High School. We didn’t know what we were doing on those big courts."

The Pistons weren’t actually good. They just took advantage of a quirk in construction.

Still, because four of five teams in each division made the playoffs, Fort Wayne qualified for the postseason. Unsurprisingly, though, the Rochester Royals swept the Pistons in a best-of-three, first-round series.

At least the Pistons did some fun stuff that season. Nelson:

In an unusual promotion gimmick. Fort Wayne and Boston played a midnight basketball game on February 21 in Boston Garden so people who worked on the night shift could watch. The game followed a performance of Ice Follies. It must have been past the Pistons’ bedtime, as they lost to the Celtics 88-67.

Interesting, but underwhelming – that night and all season.

Previously

By Dan Feldman • Posted in Chevette to Corvette, Pistons History • 1 Comment
October 6th, 2011

Joel Anthony could become a better player by copying Ben Wallace’s … offense?

Writing for ESPN’s Miami Heat Index, John Krolik evaluates Heat center (or centre? He is Canadian, after all) Joel Anthony’s season and what he can do to become a more well-rounded player for the Heat. Anthony is active and a solid rebounder and shot blocker, but he’s a non-factor on offense, which hurts the Heat when he’s on the court.

One possible solution? Watch a little Ben Wallace:

Wallace never learned to make free throws, and as he got older he couldn’t really convert layups or dunks very well anymore, but he hid himself exceedingly well offensively by staying in constant motion, making good screens and cuts, and executing surprisingly good passes whenever he had the choice between attempting a contested layup against a rotating defense or feeding an open teammate.

When Wallace played with the Cavaliers in the 2008-09 season, the Cavaliers were shockingly good offensively with a starting offensive frontcourt of Wallace and Zydrunas Ilgauskas — in fact, the Cavaliers were a full four points per 100 possessions better offensively when Wallace played than when he sat. When you consider that Wallace was horrible at both free throws and layups at that point in his career, that’s fairly incredible.

The biggest Wallace myth out there has always been that he’s a liability offensively. The reality is much different. It’s true Wallace was never a scorer and was never a guy who was particularly comfortable catching the ball and trying to post his man up. But, first of all, he’s been an incredible offensive rebounder in his career, which creates extra possessions. He also developed into a very good passer. So, when you combine that passing with the offensive rebounding, you have a player who became pretty good at getting his teammates the ball in spots they liked and in a position where they either had a shot or could set up an even better shot for someone else.

Anthony, like Wallace, will never be a player whose offense scares an opposing team, but if he develops into a crafty player who makes good passes, takes good shots when they are presented and doesn’t turn the ball over, he could really help the Heat improve next season.

By Patrick Hayes • Posted in Notes • 13 Comments
October 5th, 2011

Richard Hamilton’s sources say he did not threaten to leave his agent

Earlier, ESPN’s Chris Broussard cited anonymous sources as saying Richard Hamilton was upset that his agent, Leon Rose, was among seven agents who favor union de-certificatication and who wrote a letter to NBA players urging them not to accept an unfavorable deal. Broussard reported that Hamilton was so upset that he threatened to leave Rose and “take other players with him.”

But man do I love Twitter. Broussard himself broke the news on Twitter. Luckily, though, Hamilton has a Twitter account as well and didn’t have to go far to issue a denial:

@Chris_Broussard “Source says Rip Hamilton told his agent Leon Rose he’s upset Rose participated in letter.” 100% UNTRUE. Never happened.

As of writing this, Broussard hasn’t responded to Hamilton.

By Patrick Hayes • Posted in Notes • No Comment
October 5th, 2011

Richard Hamilton reportedly upset with his agent’s participation in ‘Super Seven’

A group of seven of the NBA’s most powerful agents recently wrote a letter to their clients warning them not to accept a bad deal to end the NBA lockout. These agents also reported favor decertification of the NBA Players Union. One of those agents is Leon Rose, who represents Rip Hamilton. Hamilton was apparently not happy with that, via ESPN’s Chris Broussard on Twitter:

Source says Rip Hamilton told his agent Leon Rose he’s upset Rose participated in letter, which is perceived by many as anti-union.

Source adds that Rip told Rose he’ll leave & take other players with him if Rose doesn’t leave the “anti-union” group.

Just another sub-plot in the world of competing interests and agendas preventing this lockout from ending.

By Patrick Hayes • Posted in Notes • 2 Comments
October 5th, 2011

Ranking teams’ 25-and-under players

Many Pistons fans take comfort in looking a few years into the future, when Detroit’s bad contracts come off the books  and its young players have developed. But that type of analysis ignores that other teams have young players too. Where do the Pistons youngsters rank? Ryan Pravato attempts to determine that by answering a simple question.

-Dan

If you had to start an NBA team comprised of just the players on the roster 25 years old and younger (by November 2011), whom would you choose?

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Kevin Durant
  • Russell Westbrook
  • Serge Ibaka
  • James Harden
  • Eric Maynor
  • Daequan Cook
  • Cole Aldrich
  • Byron Mullens
  • Reggie Jackson (rookie)

The Thunder lead because of what these players have already become. Even if Durant and Russell don’t improve a lick from here on out, they’re still premier players. Plus, Harden and Ibaka are already two very dangerous role players. So, knowing full well that these four will continue to improve, there’s no other unit close to having as lethal of a foundation in place with so much obscene potential unfulfilled.

And Aldrich is by no means a lost cause yet.

No. 2 Los Angeles Clippers

  • Blake Griffin
  • Eric Gordon
  • Eric Bledsoe
  • DeAndre Jordan
  • Al-Farouq Aminu
  • Willie Warren
  • Trey Thompkins (rookie)
  • Travis Leslie (rookie)

Bledsoe is a tough, flashy, athletic point guard, but he must improve his perimeter game. If he does, he’ll join Griffin and Gordon as eventual top-5 players at their positions. Aminu is the question mark. I think it’ll be feast or famine with him, and this group will heavily depend on him if Jordan fails to develop offensively.

Leslie, a phenomenal athlete and capable shooter, was a sneaky late-round pick.

No. 3 Utah Jazz

  • Derrick Favors
  • C.J. Miles
  • Gordon Hayward
  • Kyrylo Fesenko
  • Jeremy Evans
  • Enes Kanter (rookie)
  • Alec Burks (rookie)

The Jazz possess a ridiculous amount of upside, but the problem with the ridiculousness is that the upside will really never live up to its tease on paper. However, there are, at worst, a lot of future high-quality starters in this group, that will allow a perennial playoff team to form. But are there any eventual superstars here? Not likely. Maybe not the sexiest team, but these players certainly each bring a little something different to the table that help the Jazz become a consistent winner.

And watching Jeremy Evans do things like this is really entertaining.

No. 4 Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Kevin Love
  • Michael Beasley
  • Wesley Johnson
  • Martell Webster
  • Wayne Ellington
  • Anthony Randolph
  • Lazar Hayward
  • Nikola Pekovic
  • Derrick Williams (rookie)
  • Malcolm Lee (rookie)
  • Ricky Rubio (rookie)

Williams and Rubio really make this group tantalizing, but are we really confident Williams avoids falling into the Beasley category of mediocrity? Are we even confident Rubio will suit up? What do we make of Johnson’s lackluster rookie campaign or the pulse that showed in Randolph late last season?

In all this uncertainty, Love is a fine piece to have in your back pocket, but if Williams and Rubio pan out … watch out.

No. 5 Sacramento Kings

  • Tyreke Evans
  • DeMarcus Cousins
  • J.J. Hickson
  • Jason Thompson
  • Marcus Thornton
  • Donte Green,
  • Darnell Jackson
  • Hassan Whiteside
  • Jimmer Fredette (rookie)
  • Tyler Honeycutt (rookie)
  • Isaiah Thomas (rookie)

Who will do the dirty work on this unit? Can Evans stay healthy? Will Cousins stay on the floor? Can Hickson be consistently consistent? With Jimmer’s shot-making ability, it’s tough to imagine him not achieving at least a mid-teens scoring average for his career, but can he stay in front of anybody?

This group is obviously talented, but maybe not the right blend of demeanors and styles.

No. 6 Washington Wizards

  • John Wall
  • Jordan Crawford
  • Javale McGee
  • Andray Blatche
  • Yi
  • Trevor Booker
  • Kevin Seraphin
  • Jan Vesely (rookie)
  • Chris Singleton (rookie)
  • Shelvin Mack (rookie)

Wall, Crawford and McGee have proven themselves to be genuine NBA talents still with great potential. Vesely was a high-risk, high-reward selection, and the likelihood is slim that fellow rookies Shelvin Mack and Chris Singleton develop into starting caliber players. Talented enigma Andray Blatche is still 25 years old, so keep him in mind, too.

Really, we all know that this is a Wall production through and through. I’d buy a ticket.

No. 7 Orlando Magic

  • Dwight Howard
  • Ryan Anderson
  • Earl Clark
  • Justin Harper (rookie)
  • DeAndre Liggins (rookie)

To have one of the very few dominant centers in the league is reason enough to choose this group. Even scarier is just how demonstrably more he can improve offensively.

No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers

  • Jrue Holiday
  • Evan Turner
  • Thaddeus Young
  • Louis Williams
  • Spencer Hawes
  • Jodie Meeks
  • Marreese Speights
  • Craig Brackins
  • Nikola Vucevic (rookie)
  • Lavoy Allen (rookie)

We don’t really know how good Holiday and Turner will be (noticing a pattern?), but one heck of a versatile back court is a legitimate possibility. And that chance is too good to pass up. A Speights-Vucevic frontcourt works, as both are talented offensively. Young and Williams aren’t shabby support players, either.

No. 9 Detroit Pistons

Monroe’s flurry late last season really boosts this group’s value. Knight has All-Star talent and the work ethic to get there. He very well could be the best point guard in the 2011 draft, and that’s saying a lot, because Irving has franchise player written all over him. Will Stuckey flourish as the off guard now given the chance? Despite Daye’s shortcomings athletically and physically, you can’t give up on a near 7-footer with such smooth a stroke.

No. 10 Atlanta Hawks

  • Al Horford
  • Josh Smith
  • Jeff Teague
  • Marvin Williams
  • Keith Benson (rookie)

An intriguing unit especially with the emergence of Teague (bet Atlanta still wished they had Jordan Crawford, too). Both Horford and Smith are best at the four spot, which is a problem—a problem I wouldn’t mind having. And if you’re wondering: Williams is on this list because he just turned 25 in June and Smith won’t be 26 until December.

No. 11 Boston Celtics

  • Rajon Rondo
  • Jeff Green
  • Glen Davis
  • Avery Bradley
  • JaJuan Johnson (rookie)
  • E’Twaun Moore (rookie)

Let me know when Rondo warms up his jumper. It’s slowly improving but not good enough yet. Until then, he’s just a freak athlete with a high hoops IQ and uncanny creativity who largely benefited from playing with great players so far in his career.

Bradley is a nice scoring prospect, and Johnson definitely has the tools to be a dependable rotational NBA big. Otherwise, this group is a bit weak on upside, but not poor by any stretch.

No. 12 Chicago Bulls

  • Derrick Rose
  • Omer Asik
  • Nikola Mirotic (rookie)
  • Jimmy Butler (rookie)

I know the desire for a flashy, yet humble superstar guard is high, but do you sacrifice a deeper, younger unit for that one superstar on an island?

No. 13 Indiana Pacers

  • Darren Collison
  • Roy Hibbert
  • George Hill
  • Paul George
  • Josh McRoberts
  • A.J. Price
  • Lance Stephenson

This group’s depth matched with their versatility makes them dangerous, but maybe never dominant. Although, it’s very tough to tell yet whether Hibbert has already hit his ceiling or Collison will become that 35-minute-per-night guy. George has tools to be an impact player, maybe even an All-Star.

Stephenson may be the cherry on top of all this. Unfortunately, he’s a few cards short of a full deck.

No. 14 Memphis Grizzlies

  • Rudy Gay
  • Mike Conley
  • Darrell Arthur
  • O.J. Mayo
  • Greivis Vasquez
  • Xavier Henry
  • Ishmael Smith
  • Josh Selby (rookie)

Conley showed he’s more than an adequate point guard with pieces around him. Arthur looks like a dangerous sixth man at the very least. I’m very curious to see what the ceiling could be for Vasquez.

Henry oozes potential with his shooting ability, athleticism and defensive mentality. He’ll definitely be an impact player next to Conley and Gay in a few years.

No. 15 Denver Nuggets

  • Danilo Gallinari
  • Ty Lawson
  • Wilson Chandler
  • Timofey Mozgov
  • Kosta Koufus
  • Kenneth Faried (rookie)
  • Jordan Hamilton (rookie)
  • Chukwudiebere Maduabum (rookie)

Gallinari and Lawson are exciting, talented players, but certainly not All-Star caliber. So what? Jason Terry and Tyson Chandler never made an All-Star team.

As for the intriguing rookies, Faried will surely have ample opportunities to clean up many of the misses by the extremely talented, but chuck-happy, Hamilton.

No. 16 Los Angeles Lakers

  • Andrew Bynum
  • Shannon Brown
  • Devin Ebanks
  • Derrick Caracter
  • Darius Morris (rookie)
  • Andrew Goudelock (rookie)
  • Ater Majok (rookie)

Bynum’s track record of injuries incredibly sours this group that otherwise includes intriguing, yet flawed, projects. Morris will be well worth the wait, as he’s about as natural of a point guard as you will see at age 20.

No. 17 Toronto Raptors

  • DeMar DeRozan
  • Jerryd Bayless
  • Ed Davis
  • Amir Johnson
  • Sonny Weems
  • James Johnson
  • Alexis Ajinca
  • Julian Wright
  • Jonas Valanciunas (rookie)

DeRozan and Bayless have done enough to make me think they will pan out as nice starting-caliber players. The upside of Davis and Valancuinas is monstrous.

Then you have Julian Wright.

No. 18 Golden State Warriors

  • Stephen Curry
  • Dorell Wright
  • Ekpe Udoh
  • Reggie Williams
  • Andris Biedrins
  • Jeremy Lin
  • Klay Thompson (rookie)
  • Jeremy Tyler (rookie)
  • Charles Jenkins (rookie)

Udoh might not develop into a starting center, but his jump shot and shot-blocking skills keep me believing. This group certainly has plenty of pure shooting, but it lacks playmaking ability sans Curry. Thompson might be just what the doctor ordered.

No. 19 Portland Trail Blazers

  • Wesley Matthews
  • Nicolas Batum
  • Greg Oden
  • Patty Mills
  • Armon Johnson
  • Elliot Williams
  • Luke Babbit
  • Nolan Smith (rookie)
  • Jon Diebler (rookie)
  • Tanguy Ngombo (rookie)

Safe and reliable, above-average players in Mathews and Batum here – though, I’m looking for Batum to make that next giant leap in this his fourth year. Nolan Smith is a rock-solid point guard. If Diebler could cover a cupboard, I’d feel much better about his chances at sticking.

No. 20 Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Ramon Sessions
  • Daniel Gibson
  • Omri Casspi
  • Manny Harris
  • Christian Eyenga
  • Luke Harangody
  • Samardo Samuels
  • Alonzo Gee
  • Semih Erden
  • Kyrie Irving (rookie)
  • Tristian Thompson (rookie)
  • Milan Macvan (rookie)

Irving has the skills to quickly become a facilitator and scoring point guard. Thompson needs to add a ton of polish offensively, but making some All-Star teams shouldn’t be too lofty of an expectation for a fourth pick, you know? Eyenga and Harris aren’t bad wing prospects, but probably not starting caliber.

No. 21 Charlotte Bobcats

  • D.J. Augustin
  • Tyrus Thomas
  • Gerald Henderson
  • Dante Cunningham
  • D.J. White
  • Bismack Biyombo (rookie)
  • Kemba Walker (rookie)

This group, obviously extremely dependent on the rookies, could be fantastic or utterly pedestrian. Walker will be at worst a decent NBA player, but really, how high is his ceiling? Will Biyombo be any good at all? (Deng Gai, anyone?) Also, after what seems like a decade in the league, Thomas can’t yet be labeled a bad or good basketball player.

No. 22 Houston Rockets

  • Kyle Lowry
  • Chase Budinger
  • Patrick Patterson
  • Goran Dragic
  • Jordan Hill
  • Jonny Flynn
  • Marcus Morris (rookie)
  • Donatas Motiejunas (rookie)
  • Chandler Parsons (rookie)

Lowry played starting-point guard minutes last season and performed like he belonged. Dragic and Budinger are sound backups, but nothing more.

Between Hill, Patterson and Morris, one of them is bound to develop into an above average big, right? I think it’s safe to assume it won’t be Hill, though.

No. 23 New York Knicks

  • Toney Douglas
  • Landry Fields
  • Shawne Williams
  • Bill Walker
  • Derrick Brown
  • Andy Rautins
  • Iman Shumpert (rookie)
  • Josh Harrellson (rookie)

Not an untalented bunch, but they lack versatility. Still waiting for the real Bill Walker to stand up. Shumpert’s the guy to watch here – a 6-foot-6 ball hawk with a Billups-like body and the potential to be a fine shooter.

No. 24 New Jersey Nets

  • Brook Lopez
  • Jordan Farmar
  • Damion James
  • Ben Uzoh
  • Brandan Wright
  • Johan Petro
  • MarShon Brooks (rookie)
  • Bojan Bogdanovic (rookie)
  • Jordan Williams (rookie)

A rather ragtag bunch sans Lopez, but both Brooks and Bogdanovic should become steady, dependable scorers. Ultimately, there’s not enough upside here.

No. 25 San Antonio Spurs

  • DeJuan Blair
  • James Anderson
  • Da’Sean Butler
  • Kawhi Leonard (rookie)
  • Cory Joseph (rookie)
  • Davis Bertans (rookie)
  • Adam Hanga (rookie)

The Spurs have nice upside with their draft selections and an under-the-radar pickup of Butler late last season. You just know a couple of these players will turn into solid pros.

No. 26 Milwaukee Bucks

  • Brandon Jennings
  • Ersan Ilyasova
  • Luc Mbah a Moute
  • Chris Douglas-Roberts
  • Jon Brockman
  • Larry Sanders
  • Tobias Harris (rookie)
  • Jon Leuer (rookie)

The opinions vary quite drastically on Jennings’ star status. Quite simply, he’s not an elite point guard, and I don’t think he has it in him to be one. Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute and Brockman are consummate role players — too bad these aren’t role-player rankings.

No. 27 Dallas Mavericks

  • Rodrigue Beaubois
  • Ian Mahinmi
  • Corey Brewer
  • Dominique James

The Frenchmen are impressive when they see the floor. Mahinmi may never develop into much more than a bit player, but those two jumpers of his in the Finals had to give him confidence. Beaubois will be a sniper for years to come.

No. 28 Miami Heat

  • Mario Chalmers
  • Dexter Pittman
  • Norris Cole (rookie)

Chalmers showed during last season’s playoffs that he’s a gamer ready to take on a larger role.

No. 29 Phoenix Suns

  • Robin Lopez
  • Gani Lawal
  • Garret Siler
  • Markieff Morris (rookie)

You’d think Lopez’s averages of 5.9 points per game and 3.3 rebounds in his first three seasons will increase significantly going forward. But that might depend your definition of significantly.

No. 30 New Orleans Hornets

  • Marco Belinelli
  • Quincy Pondexter
  • Jason Smith

This is the only ranking where I’m 100 percent certain.

By Ryan Pravato • Posted in Analysis • 41 Comments
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