Comments on: Will Greg Monroe be better than Pau Gasol and Amar’e Stoudemire in 2015?

By: khandor

khandor — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 13:15:36 +0000

To those who think Monroe isn’t better than Stoudemire right now but is likely to be become better than Stoudemire in the future,
1. Please explain a case where you think so-called “advanced stats” are in fact necessary.
2. To this point, the actual facts are that: i. Stoudemire is a better basketball player than Monroe. ii. There is no reliable indicator which suggests Monroe is likely to develop into a better basketball player than Stoudemire at any point in the future [... aside from Stat's expected gradual decline in production with age once he passes through his physical prime].
3. IMO, Monroe’s individual skill set thus far resembles that of someone like Sam Perkins … who was a very good college player and developed into a highly serviceable NBAer with a lengthy career but without ever becoming one of the very best Big Men in the league.

By: Patrick Hayes

Patrick Hayes — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 18:26:20 +0000

"But this just doesn’t seem like a case where advanced stats are necessary."

Voice of reason. Thank you.

By: tarsier

tarsier — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 17:47:59 +0000

For what it’s worth, here is what I see in your calculations, khandor. Stoudemire last year provided 19% of how good the Knicks were while Monroe provided 22% of how food the Pistons were. So if the Knicks were about as good as the Pistons, by that stat, Monroe would be slightly better than Amare. However, the Knicks were much better than the Pistons. With every team healthy, the Knicks would have been your best bet in the league for a first round upset. Not an incredible team, but much better than a mid-lottery team like Detroit. I would have taken 19% of their power over 22% of Detroit’s any day.

But this just doesn’t seem like a case where advanced stats are necessary. Maybe if Monroe had been a defensive beast like Amare was an offensive beast. But it is clear to see that they were both weak defensively and Amare is a much better scorer (even if Monroe is better at not accumulating TOs).

I do expect Monroe to pass Amare within the next two years though. ALthough he probably won’t be seen as superior by most fans for at least three.

By: neutes

neutes — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 15:35:04 +0000

Whoa. Khandor with a calculation of some sort. Weird. Monroe accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s wins than Amare did, therefore Monroe more valuable to his team than Amare, therefore Monroe > Amare. Good glad that’s settled. Lol.

By: khandor

khandor — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 15:19:49 +0000

@ tarsier,
On the subject of whether or not Tom Ziller’s original comment, re: the relative value of DeAndre Jordan vs Greg Monroe, was intended to be sarcastic, I now stand corrected … based on an email exchange which I had with Tom last night and earlier this morning. IMO, it’s important to acknowledge one’s own errors. :-)

By: khandor

khandor — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 15:06:10 +0000

#1. A good point was just made by MP, re: the lack of meaning involved with comparing certain stats for different players who work for different teams, and it's important to recognize good points made, regardless of who actually makes them. :-) If someone was to try and compare the individual contributions made last season by Monroe and Stoudemire to their respective teams, based strictly on a statistical formula - e.g. Win Shares, or Wins Produced, etc. - which of the following two simplistic methods would yield a more meaningful comparison/assessment of their individual ability, as an all around basketball player, within the context of their team? Option 1 - Stoudemire -> 42 wins / 8.0 = 5.25 vs Monroe -> 30 wins / 6.6 = 4.5; or, Option 2 - Stoudemire -> 8.0 / 42 wins = 0.19 vs Monroe -> 6.6 / 30 wins = 0.22

By: Patrick Hayes

Patrick Hayes — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 12:59:46 +0000

@Mike:

You're right. I just copied and pasted. The stats you mention certainly don't prove anything. However, the assist/block % stats certainly favor Amar'e while Monroe is better in rebounding/steals. And I think it's pretty clear that Amar'e is the far superior scorer.

My point was just that Stoudemire is a better player than Monroe right now, even if there are stats like WP out there that favor Monroe.

By: jprime18

jprime18 — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 08:36:57 +0000

MONROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOE

will be a force to be reckoned with. Can’t wait to see him and Knight play together. If we get another stud in the draft next year, watch out.

By: Mike Payne

Mike Payne — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 04:51:22 +0000

Hey Patrick, I know I have a bad habit of chiming in only when I disagree with something, but I thought this contribution might be helpful when using advanced stats to compare players on different teams. Stats like win shares and o/d-ratings hold very little water across teams. They are, in effect, helpful almost entirely in a team context. I’ll explain:

“Win Shares – Monroe 6.6/Amar’e 8.0″

Win Shares assigns a single number to each player for his contributions for the year for his team. The Knicks won 42 games, of which 8.0 were assigned to Stoudemire. The Pistons won 30 games, of which 6.6 were assigned to Monroe.

Re: o/d ratings– these are also important in the team context, when a player is active on court. If one player has a 120 o-rating on team X and player 2 has a 130 o-rating on team Y, it tells nothing to compare those two measurements. O/D-ratings are only effective when comparing players on the same team. However, a beneficial unit of measurement which is not often considered is o/d rating margin– an area where Monroe was the clear leader of the Pistons, and this unit of measure can hold a bit of value when comparing a players importance to their respective teams against eachother.

Ben Gulker and I have discussed running a series on DetroitBadBoys where we look at the value and weakness of different statistics when evaluating players objectively. Look for it soon-ish. But for this comparison, between Stoudemire and Monroe, win shares and o/d ratings don’t carry much weight, unless you look at o/d margin, when considering who had a greater impact on their team in 2010-11.

By: tarsier

tarsier — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 21:01:15 +0000

Although, that doesn’t quite prove it as I’m not sure how they rank the players and there seems to be a lot of disagreement between the authors of the list (Klay Thompson?????????).