Comments on: Ben Gordon and the Diawara Line http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/ Your Go-To Source For Pistons Coverage Tue, 18 Jun 2013 23:00:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: Laser http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9291 Laser Wed, 27 Oct 2010 06:45:38 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9291 yeah. you'd think. yeah. you’d think.

]]> By: nuetes http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9278 nuetes Wed, 27 Oct 2010 01:45:46 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9278 send gordon to the suns or knicks where he can jack up all the shots he wants then. that's the kind of team he needs to be on - a team that will never win it all. he's like a bottleneck on offense and a sieve on defense. if the warriors can't give monte ellis away i'm not sure how the pistons are going to get rid of gordon. he seems more tradeable than rip, but maybe not. we're screwed at SG. you'd think $23 million would create a position of strength. send gordon to the suns or knicks where he can jack up all the shots he wants then. that’s the kind of team he needs to be on – a team that will never win it all. he’s like a bottleneck on offense and a sieve on defense. if the warriors can’t give monte ellis away i’m not sure how the pistons are going to get rid of gordon. he seems more tradeable than rip, but maybe not. we’re screwed at SG. you’d think $23 million would create a position of strength.

]]> By: Laser http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9273 Laser Tue, 26 Oct 2010 23:14:54 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9273 don't forget screens, payne. no good screen setters for rip and bg. that's an underrated shortcoming of the team, among our thousands of shortcomings. we're basically all shortcomings right now.   i'm with you on the intangibles, too. but i have a hard time judging ben gordon in the context of this team. he's playing behind two other scoring guards and managed less than 20 minutes and 10 shots when rip was healthy, and he was basically a third scoring option. that's just not his game. don’t forget screens, payne. no good screen setters for rip and bg. that’s an underrated shortcoming of the team, among our thousands of shortcomings. we’re basically all shortcomings right now.
 
i’m with you on the intangibles, too. but i have a hard time judging ben gordon in the context of this team. he’s playing behind two other scoring guards and managed less than 20 minutes and 10 shots when rip was healthy, and he was basically a third scoring option. that’s just not his game.

]]> By: Mike Payne http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9267 Mike Payne Tue, 26 Oct 2010 21:28:38 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9267 An interesting point to note about Gordon was that despite his abysmal outside shooting last season (with his career performance as the standard), Gordon had one of the absolute best isolation (49.3%) and off screen (48.3%) offenses in the game.  Despite being one of the league's top 20 players in these categories across all five positions, his season averages tanked primarily on the failure of his 3-point shot. I agree with Laser above that on this roster, one with an offensively maligned starter ahead of Gordon and no pure point player beside him, it'll be more difficult for Gordon to maintain the averages produced in Chicago, healthy or not.  And with an isolation game as brilliant as Gordon has (which is likely the crux of the PistonPowered thinking that Gordon can be a league leader in scoring), he needs possession of the ball to be most effective, which renders a pure point player kind of useless.  The problem with this is Gordon's A/T issues, which make him a liability if he's controlling the ball on most of his on-court possessions. That's what separates Gordon from Hamilton.  Both had terrible seasons last year, but Hamilton was a net positive player on court where Gordon was not.  Hamilton took better care of the ball, distributed and rebounded better, leading to positive productivity on court. I don't want Hamilton on this team, but I'm concerned with the thinking that Ben Gordon will produce up to the lofty standards some are hoping for <strong>without making our team worse</strong>.  Your "Diawara Line" takes into account TS% alone, but the turnovers, the rebounding, the defense and the nature of Gordon's ball-dominating offense are just as important to note.  TS% variance to wins is a bit too much of a 30,000 feet analysis-- as correlation in this case most certainly doesn't imply causation. An interesting point to note about Gordon was that despite his abysmal outside shooting last season (with his career performance as the standard), Gordon had one of the absolute best isolation (49.3%) and off screen (48.3%) offenses in the game.  Despite being one of the league’s top 20 players in these categories across all five positions, his season averages tanked primarily on the failure of his 3-point shot.
I agree with Laser above that on this roster, one with an offensively maligned starter ahead of Gordon and no pure point player beside him, it’ll be more difficult for Gordon to maintain the averages produced in Chicago, healthy or not.  And with an isolation game as brilliant as Gordon has (which is likely the crux of the PistonPowered thinking that Gordon can be a league leader in scoring), he needs possession of the ball to be most effective, which renders a pure point player kind of useless.  The problem with this is Gordon’s A/T issues, which make him a liability if he’s controlling the ball on most of his on-court possessions.
That’s what separates Gordon from Hamilton.  Both had terrible seasons last year, but Hamilton was a net positive player on court where Gordon was not.  Hamilton took better care of the ball, distributed and rebounded better, leading to positive productivity on court.
I don’t want Hamilton on this team, but I’m concerned with the thinking that Ben Gordon will produce up to the lofty standards some are hoping for without making our team worse.  Your “Diawara Line” takes into account TS% alone, but the turnovers, the rebounding, the defense and the nature of Gordon’s ball-dominating offense are just as important to note.  TS% variance to wins is a bit too much of a 30,000 feet analysis– as correlation in this case most certainly doesn’t imply causation.

]]> By: Laser http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9262 Laser Tue, 26 Oct 2010 20:10:43 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9262 @hayes: believe it. no smugness this time. just a fervent belief that ben gordon can never be a top scorer in the league on this roster. he's likely to rank third or fourth on the team.   and come on, man, you're as smug with me as it gets. @hayes: believe it. no smugness this time. just a fervent belief that ben gordon can never be a top scorer in the league on this roster. he’s likely to rank third or fourth on the team.
 
and come on, man, you’re as smug with me as it gets.

]]> By: nuetes http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9259 nuetes Tue, 26 Oct 2010 19:37:50 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9259 @Alan - Actually this is the kind of stuff that drew me to this site in the first place. Seems like Feldman used to throw graphs and provide statistical analysis all the time. I can read opinions anywhere, but actual insight you can't get everywhere. stuff like this: <a href="http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/01/sorting-the-detroit-pistons-by-how-much-they-each-play-with-ben-wallace-could-be-the-key-to-building-their-best-lineup/" rel="nofollow">http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/01/sorting-the-detroit-pistons-by-how-much-they-each-play-with-ben-wallace-could-be-the-key-to-building-their-best-lineup/</a> or this: <a href="http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/03/should-jonas-jerebko-make-the-all-rookie-team/" rel="nofollow">http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/03/should-jonas-jerebko-make-the-all-rookie-team/</a> or this: <a href="http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/05/rodney-stuckey-rarely-dunks-when-he-goes-inside-and-other-thoughts-on-the-point-guards-future-with-the-detroit-pistons/" rel="nofollow">http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/05/rodney-stuckey-rarely-dunks-when-he-goes-inside-and-other-thoughts-on-the-point-guards-future-with-the-detroit-pistons/</a> for examples. @Alan -

Actually this is the kind of stuff that drew me to this site in the first place. Seems like Feldman used to throw graphs and provide statistical analysis all the time. I can read opinions anywhere, but actual insight you can’t get everywhere.

stuff like this: http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/01/sorting-the-detroit-pistons-by-how-much-they-each-play-with-ben-wallace-could-be-the-key-to-building-their-best-lineup/

or this: http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/03/should-jonas-jerebko-make-the-all-rookie-team/

or this: http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/05/rodney-stuckey-rarely-dunks-when-he-goes-inside-and-other-thoughts-on-the-point-guards-future-with-the-detroit-pistons/

for examples.

]]> By: Patrick Hayes http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9257 Patrick Hayes Tue, 26 Oct 2010 19:34:17 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9257 <p>@Alan:</p> <p>This was actaully Dan Feldman's post, but things for the compliments.</p> @Alan:

This was actaully Dan Feldman’s post, but things for the compliments.

]]> By: Alan http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9256 Alan Tue, 26 Oct 2010 19:01:06 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9256 Patrick, Amazing that you took the time to put this into graphs and charts.  I think fans are growing more and more interested in articles like this and only a handful of writers take the time to put them together.  I think this will separate Pistonpowered.com from the pack.  Now, I'm really not smart enough to understand this so I'll find someone to explain it to me.  I know this, when the game is close, Ben Gordon can be the difference-maker.  He can single handedly keep a team in a game and he can consistently put teams away down the stretch.  In fact, the only players that put teams away more consistently are all superstars.  It takes a team to put Gordon in a position to close-out games and I think we all agree that Detroit isn't there yet.  Ben Gordon has value.  Critics can dog him all they won't but that doesn't change the fact that he's a 20-point scorer in a league that only offers 15 of them. Patrick,
Amazing that you took the time to put this into graphs and charts.  I think fans are growing more and more interested in articles like this and only a handful of writers take the time to put them together.  I think this will separate Pistonpowered.com from the pack.  Now, I’m really not smart enough to understand this so I’ll find someone to explain it to me. 

I know this, when the game is close, Ben Gordon can be the difference-maker.  He can single handedly keep a team in a game and he can consistently put teams away down the stretch.  In fact, the only players that put teams away more consistently are all superstars.  It takes a team to put Gordon in a position to close-out games and I think we all agree that Detroit isn’t there yet. 

Ben Gordon has value.  Critics can dog him all they won’t but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s a 20-point scorer in a league that only offers 15 of them.

]]> By: nuetes http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9251 nuetes Tue, 26 Oct 2010 17:02:07 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9251 See I think statistical analysis can be very valuable. I wouldn't say all fans, but most fans can't detect scorers flaws using the eye test. Scoring is all that matters to a lot of fans. This particular Diawara line gimmick is trying to show how successful the team is when Gordon shoots well (well being completely subjective). Sorta. The stat is based solely on scoring, or shooting percentage. No other statistical categories are being measured. Given that scoring is Gordon's main skill, or one might argue only skill, it could be a valuable metric. 35% is way too low to set the bar imo. If a players only skill is scoring he has to be expected to do it well since he's not helping in any other way. 35% is not well. Hollinger's cut off is 30%. That's weak. Any player shooting above 30%, which every player does, can inflate their PER by taking more shots, making scorers (shooters) look better than players that play defense, rebound, block shots, create turnovers, etc. That's why Stuckey has a decent looking PER. And I assume Gordon would as well. It's why CV led the Pistons in PER last season. According to Hollinger then CV was our best player last season. Does that make sense? CV being rated our team's best player by a widely used stat just feeds Laser's argument. Nobody, and I mean nobody, would have considered CV to be the team's best player last season. But, but, but Hollingers says so!!! And he invented PER! And everyone uses it!!! Everyone! Stats are only good if the model is good. You can't produce an epic fail like that and have a good model.   So while I love stats, it doesn't take a genius to see that Gordon is not that valuable. See I think statistical analysis can be very valuable. I wouldn’t say all fans, but most fans can’t detect scorers flaws using the eye test. Scoring is all that matters to a lot of fans. This particular Diawara line gimmick is trying to show how successful the team is when Gordon shoots well (well being completely subjective). Sorta. The stat is based solely on scoring, or shooting percentage. No other statistical categories are being measured. Given that scoring is Gordon’s main skill, or one might argue only skill, it could be a valuable metric. 35% is way too low to set the bar imo.

If a players only skill is scoring he has to be expected to do it well since he’s not helping in any other way. 35% is not well. Hollinger’s cut off is 30%. That’s weak. Any player shooting above 30%, which every player does, can inflate their PER by taking more shots, making scorers (shooters) look better than players that play defense, rebound, block shots, create turnovers, etc. That’s why Stuckey has a decent looking PER. And I assume Gordon would as well. It’s why CV led the Pistons in PER last season. According to Hollinger then CV was our best player last season. Does that make sense?

CV being rated our team’s best player by a widely used stat just feeds Laser’s argument. Nobody, and I mean nobody, would have considered CV to be the team’s best player last season. But, but, but Hollingers says so!!! And he invented PER! And everyone uses it!!! Everyone! Stats are only good if the model is good. You can’t produce an epic fail like that and have a good model.
 
So while I love stats, it doesn’t take a genius to see that Gordon is not that valuable.

]]> By: Patrick Hayes http://www.pistonpowered.com/2010/10/ben-gordon-and-the-diawara-line/comment-page-1/#comment-9248 Patrick Hayes Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:21:44 +0000 http://www.pistonpowered.com/?p=3506#comment-9248 "i wasn’t trying to be smug" Haha. That's pretty hard to believe. I understand what you are (always) saying. Doesn't change the fact that the roster is set for now. Still gonna write about it. I don't think any of this is "productive exercise" -- writing/commenting about a sports team all day? -- but the post is interesting for some people. “i wasn’t trying to be smug”
Haha. That’s pretty hard to believe.
I understand what you are (always) saying. Doesn’t change the fact that the roster is set for now. Still gonna write about it. I don’t think any of this is “productive exercise” — writing/commenting about a sports team all day? — but the post is interesting for some people.

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