Odds on the next coach get a lot more even

Avery Johnson: 70 percent

His odds dropped because Joe Dumars put word out the search was wide open, according to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.

But Dumars is flying to Houston to meet with Johnson, according to Marc Stein of ESPN. So, he remains a clear frontrunner.

Tom Thibodeau: 14 percent

Thibodeau has begun to pop up as a candidate. From Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports:

Sources say that Dumars had a lengthy telephone conversation with Thibodeau on Friday and is expected to speak with him again.

John Kuester: 12 percent

Kuester has been tied to the search since the beginning. But it appears talked to Thibodeau before him. From McCosky:

Cleveland assistant John Kuester was on Dumars’ original short list, but as of Friday morning, the Pistons had not asked for permission to speak with him.

Other: 3 percent

McCosky lists some former head coaches who are available:

Mike Fratello, Maurice Cheeks, Sam Mitchell, Jeff Van Gundy, Del Harris and current Pistons assistants Dave Cowens and Darrell Walker.

Bill Laimbeer: 1 percent

Thibodeau’s name has popped up before any new news on Laimbeer. That’s an ominous sign for The Prince of Darkness.

McCosky on the salary structure

Chris McCosky of the Detroit News provides some more insight on Ben Gordon’s and Charlie Villanueva’s contracts:

I have seen Ben Gordon”s contract offer from the Pistons reported as high as $60 million. Unless there are some incentive clauses I don”t know about, the total value of the deal should fall just short of $55 million. He will start at $9 million next season.

Charlie Villanueva”s deal will start at $6 million and is for $35 million over five years, not $40 million.

The largest raise Ben Gordon can receive is eight percent of his first-year salary ($720,000 per year), according to Larry Coon. So, if McCosky’s numbers are correct, Gordon’s contract can be for a maximum of $52.2 million.

McCosky’s figures make sense with Villanueva receiving $500,00 annual raises.

So here’s what the Pistons’ salary structure would look like:

Team Option, Qualify Offer, Player Option

That’s $2.5 million more in cap room right now than I previously projected. Odds are Antonio McDyess will get larger offers, but Detroit has enough cap room to make a reasonable offer.

The salary cap was set at $58.68 million last year, according to Larry Coon. If the cap returns to the 2008-09 number for the 2010-11 season, the Pistons would have more than $7 million in cap room.

If they trade Richard Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince, that jumps to the $18-20 million range (minus any contracts they acquire). That’s enough to land a top-level free agent.

Salary-cap ramifications of Gordon and Villanueva signings

I don’t know how Ben Gordon’s and Charlie Villanueva’s contracts are structured, so this is just an estimate. I project each of them to receive $500,000 raises each year.

And since Villanueva’s total salary has been reported as $35 and $40 million, I used $37.5 million.

So, here’s how the Pistons’ salaries break down:

 Team Option, Qualify Offer, Player Option

The salary cap was set at $58.68 million last year, according to Larry Coon. It’s expected to go down slightly this year, so the Pistons are basically done.

Unless Gordon’s and Villanueva’s contracts are very back-loaded, Detroit just has room to sign a very low-paid player – if that.

Let’s say the cap returns to the 2008-09 number for the 2010-11 season. The Pistons would have more than $6 million in cap room.

If they trade Richard Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince, that jumps to the $17-19 million range (minus any contracts they acquire). That’s enough to land a top-level free agent.

Updated Odds on the Pistons’ next coach

Doug Collins has removed his name from consideration, according to Marc Stein of ESPN.

Avery Johnson: 85 percent

From Stein:

That would appear to leave an unobstructed path to the job for ex-Dallas Mavericks coach Avery Johnson, who just completed his first season in TV as an analyst for ESPN.

Sources close to the situation told ESPN that Johnson had his first substantive discussion with Dumars about the position earlier Wednesday.

John Kuester: 8 percent

Nothing has changed since the previous odds. He still has no NBA head-coaching experience.

Bill Laimbeer: 6 percent

Would he make sense as an assistant under Johnson?

Other: 1 percent

No names besides the aforementioned have surfaced.

Odds on the Pistons’ next coach

Doug Collins: 42 percent

He gets the slight nod over Johnson because Yahoo! Sports’s Adrian Wojnarowski has a source saying Collins is the favorite.

Avery Johnson: 40 percent

Of all available coaches, he has accomplished the most the most recently.

John Kuester: 10 percent

His name has popped up all over, but he has never been an NBA head coach. I doubt Joe  Dumars replaces a failed first-time coach with another first-time coach.

Bill Laimbeer: 5 percent

Laimbeer is in the running, according to A. Sherrod Blakely of MLive. Still, he has the same problem as Kuester: he has never been an NBA head coach.

Other: 3 percent

It won’t be Tom Izzo. From the Free Press:

“I’m not throwing my hat in the ring, and I don’t think they’re throwing their hat at me,” Izzo said. “I’m just hanging tight here. I want to win another championship.”

I guess that means Jeff Van Gundy leads the “others.”