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Who will the Pistons draft?: Production

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In the latest installment of my quest to predict the Pistons’ four draft picks, we’re going to look at how productive players were in college.

Here are the final-year college stats of every first-round draft pick (who played NCAA basketball) since Joe Dumars became GM:

Name Year Pick PPG RPG APG BPG SPG
Rodney Stuckey 2007 15 24.6 4.7 5.5 0.3 2.4
Arron Afflalo 2007 27 16.9 2.8 1.9 0.2 0.6
Jason Maxiell 2005 26 15.3 7.7 0.8 2.7 1
Tayshaun Prince 2002 23 17.5 6.4 1.7 1.3 1.1
Rodney White 2001 9 18.7 6.5 1.5 0.7 1.2
Mateen Cleaves 2000 14 12.1 1.8 6.9 0.2 1.4

With one exception, they all have something in common. They were very productive college players.

The outlier is Cleaves. Sure, his leadership helped Michigan State to the national title. But he just wasn’t that productive of an individual player in college – at least for as high as he was picked.

I’m only going to apply this to first-round picks because if second-round picks had to be very productive in college, they’d all be off my list.

This won’t affect the board much. Not many potential first-rounders don’t produce in college. In addition to the much-publicized shortcomings of Ohio State center B.J. Mullens (who didn’t make the initial wingspan cut), two more players just weren’t that good last year.

Name School Pos. PPG RPG APG BPG SPG
Austin Daye Gonzaga SF 12.7 6.8 1.1 1.9 0.7
Jrue Holiday UCLA PG 8.46 3.8 3.7 0.5 1.6

So, Daye and Holiday are off my board. Here’s the updated list:

Point guard

Name School Height Wingspan Projected
Jrue Holiday UCLA 6’ 3.25” 6’ 7” 13
Jeff Teague Wake Forest 6’ 0.25” 6’ 7.5” 20
Toney Douglass Florida State 6’ 1” 6’ 6” 36
Rodrigue Beaubois France 6’ 1.25” 6’ 9.75” 39
Greivis Vasquez Maryland 6’ 4.75” 6’ 7.25” 56

Shooting guard

Name School Height Wingspan Projected
Gerald Henderson Duke 6’ 4” 6’ 10.25” 12
Terrence Williams Louisville 6’ 5” 6’ 9” 16
Jermaine Taylor Central Florida 6’ 3.5” 6’ 8.75” 32
Jerel McNeal Marquette 6’ 1.5” 6’ 7.25” 46
Dionte Christmas Temple 6’ 4.25” 6’ 9” 59

Small forward

Name School Height Wingspan Projected
Austin Daye Gonzaga 6’ 9.75” 7’ 2.75” 15
James Johnson Wake Forest 6’ 7” 7’ 0.75” 18
Sam Young Pittsburgh 6’ 5.25” 6’ 10.75” 25
Danny Green North Carolina 6’ 5.25” 6’ 10” 35
Damion James Texas 6’ 6.25” 7’ 0.25” 42
Joe Ingles Australia 6’ 7.75” 6’ 10.25” 52
Tyler Smith Tennessee 6’ 5.25” 6’ 9.75” No

Power forward

Name School Height Wingspan Projected
Dejuan Blair Pittsburgh 6’ 5.25” 7’ 2” 11
Earl Clark Louisville 6’ 8.5” 7’ 2.5” 14
Gani Lawal Georgia Tech 6’ 7.75” 7’ 0” 23
DaJuan Summers Georgetown 6’ 7.25” 7’ 0.75” 31
Derrick Brown Xavier 6’ 7.5” 7’ 2.5” 41
Josh Heytvelt Gonzaga 6’ 10” 7’ 1.25” 50
Taj Gibson USC 6’ 8.5” 7’ 4” 53
Jeff Adrien Connecticut 6’ 5.25” 7’ 2” No

Next up, I’ll have some second-round-only cuts.

18 Comments

  • Jun 22, 200910:55 am
    by James

    Reply

    Look stick to writing not drafting Joe has screwed up an awful lot of draft picks Mateen,Rodney White,Delfino,including last year,s draft do me a favor call Joe and tell him to contact Isiah before the draft Damon Stoudamire,Channing Frye,Tracy McGrady,David Lee,Al Harrington,stop me at any time

    • Jun 23, 200912:08 am
      by Forrest

      Reply

      Wow, James, you talk a lot of smack about Dumars….Why is it that the Pistons are perennially one of the top teams in the league? And why is it that Dumars won Executive Of The Year…was it because he’s horrible at drafting talented players? I don’t think so. And what about the 6 straight trips to the Conference finals (if not further)? You’re incredibly ignorant if you don’t think that the majority of the credit for that goes to Dumars. Just take a look at the numbers, man…stats don’t lie. The Pistons were an average team before Dumars took over, and they’ve excelled ever since. But according to you, that must mean that Dumars sucks, right? Yeah…just like it gets darker when the sun comes up, right? You’re hilariously immature….

  • Jun 22, 200910:59 am
    by James

    Reply

    The guys you have up there won,t mean squat Dumars hands in his pick it will be some guy you,ve never heard of

  • Jun 22, 200911:05 am
    by James

    Reply

    Based on our picks the last several years Joe has not done even a fair job of evaluating talent he had some luck in free agency now comes the hard part which he clearly has not mastered yet! dafting talent!!

  • Jun 22, 200911:13 am
    by James

    Reply

    Please draft Jodie Meeks

  • Jun 22, 20099:48 pm
    by Ray

    Reply

    Have you guys forgot?? Detroit made it to the ECF almost the whole decade without hardly any help from their previous draft picks…this year they get STUDS with game!!

  • Jun 23, 20091:53 am
    by Tommy E

    Reply

    Sign sheed trade the 15 and prince for the 3rd pick draft the center,,,,,Sign the tug man from orlando and just like that we suck hahahaha

  • Jun 23, 20092:32 pm
    by adam hudson

    Reply

    hey joe has done some good but do we all remember number 2 pick in the draft 2003: carmello, wade, bosh still on the board and we take Darko. then four years later we trade him to orlando who at the time did not make the playoffs that year but was the hottest team in the nba at the end of the year and joe says oh i thought we would get a lottery pick,whaa? yes, six years, six trips to the conference finals but then you hire curry no rings no coaching experience are you kidding. this year sub .500 that is joe fault. bring lambieer to coach and draft hansbrough he is big smart and won’t be a star but he will play hard every night and will be productive

  • Jun 23, 20099:32 pm
    by mark

    Reply

    well dumars SUCKS 2nd pick of the draft he picks friken Darko and he missed Carmelo,Bosh,and Wade so there

  • Jun 23, 20099:34 pm
    by Wade

    Reply

    Yea i no i wanted to go to Detroit so bad

    this is Wade 3

  • Jun 23, 200910:09 pm
    by Tommy E

    Reply

    JOe did some good but lets see//he blows it with the number 2 wade or bosch we win one more miami doesnt win of we take wade even…Then he lets Okur go and what has be the pistons weak spot CENTER INSIDE GAME///Joe wasa gurd so hes got a gaurds mentality////And iverson dang he should have jpet chauncy and got a bigman before the season started and we are a real threat last year… JOE must go Joe Must go

    • Jun 24, 200912:40 am
      by Alex

      Reply

      Yes Darko and Okur were bad plans that didn’t work out and iverson didn’t do as good as he thought but that doesn’t mean joe should go. he has done wonders for the franchise. he will get wade off of free agency in 2010 and might even get Bosch or Boozer. yes curry wasn’t the best choice in coach and i hope he does bring in lambieer.

  • Jun 24, 20091:09 am
    by Mirage

    Reply

    Terrence Williams from Louisville

    is a stud the Pistons defintely need to draft him MSU had to triple team him the whole game so Louisville wouldn’t win he is the best pick on this dudes board, but his board is lacking international players, and some key Division II players who were amazing and joe has had his eyes on NCAA b-ball. Cause he knew this years draft means a lot for the stability of his teams to come

  • Jun 24, 20091:50 am
    by travis reynolds

    Reply

    none of this matters, he’ll just draft Ty Lawson. who isnt on this list due to wingspan, im guessing.

  • Jun 24, 200911:15 am
    by Tom. B

    Reply

    Every one needs to get off of joes back the pistons have been contending pertty much ever since joe has taken over the team one bad season and now everyones ready to throw him under the bus thats classic.
    No one drafts perfect you have to take chances and you have to get a little lucky to I mean for example how many of you and I mean really without lieing actualy new who Wade was before 2003 and would you have drafted him over carmello no so give me a brake people.

  • Jun 24, 200911:27 am
    by nick

    Reply

    yea we have been to the finals 2 times and the eastern conference finals a bunch…..joe has had the right mix of players to make this a contender year in and year out….but the truth is that he really can not draft….he is the millen of basketball here in detroit. nothing we do this year will matter unless we get bosh or boozer, we are setting up for the summer of 2010 just like lots of teams. so to help with the future we need a good draft this year because i dont believe we will get any of the big names in 2010.

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